Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
West Bank and Gaza: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 52/100); the economy is in expansion; 3 turning-point signals flagged; 14 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 5.38 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment -0.04, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.38) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: weak track record (+12% skill vs naive; realized ±11.6089 over 25) · a track record, not a guarantee
West Bank and Gaza: forward projections across 13 macro indicators, horizons 2023, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2030, 2032, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed21.23(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 22.12 | 26.27 | 18.51 | 21.17 – 23.06 |
| 2028 | 23.89 | 31.09 | 17.65 | 21.71 – 26.07 |
| 2030 | 25.66 | 34.96 | 17.61 | 22.28 – 29.05 |
| 2035 | 30.1 | 43.25 | 18.7 | 23.41 – 36.8 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed17.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16.7bn | 20.2bn | 13.7bn | 16bn – 17.4bn |
| 2028 | 15.8bn | 21.8bn | 10.5bn | 14.3bn – 17.3bn |
| 2030 | 14.9bn | 22.7bn | 8.1bn | 12.7bn – 17bn |
| 2035 | 12.5bn | 23.6bn | 2.9bn | 9.2bn – 15.8bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.34(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.38 | 12 | -10 | -0.85 – 11.61 |
| 2028 | 8.32 | 12 | -10 | -2.72 – 12 |
| 2030 | 11.26 | 12 | -10 | -3.37 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -10 | -9.34 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.2k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3k | 3.7k | 2.4k | 2.9k – 3.2k |
| 2028 | 2.7k | 3.9k | 1.6k | 2.4k – 3k |
| 2030 | 2.4k | 3.9k | 1k | 2k – 2.7k |
| 2035 | 1.5k | 3.7k | 0 | 1k – 2k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed53.53(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 53.69 | 62.84 | 44.53 | 51.43 – 55.95 |
| 2028 | 53.99 | 69.85 | 38.14 | 48.98 – 59.01 |
| 2030 | 54.3 | 74.78 | 33.83 | 46.82 – 61.78 |
| 2035 | 55.07 | 84.03 | 26.12 | 41.83 – 68.31 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.81(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 8.12 |
| 2028 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 17.83 |
| 2030 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 24.57 |
| 2035 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 37.05 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed23.96(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23.54 | 26.93 | 20.61 | 22.68 – 24.4 |
| 2028 | 22.68 | 28.55 | 17.59 | 20.76 – 24.61 |
| 2030 | 21.82 | 29.4 | 15.25 | 18.99 – 24.65 |
| 2035 | 19.67 | 30.39 | 10.38 | 14.99 – 24.35 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.4m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.4m | 5.6m | 5.1m | 5.2m – 5.5m |
| 2028 | 5.5m | 5.8m | 5.3m | 5.1m – 5.9m |
| 2030 | 5.7m | 5.9m | 5.4m | 5m – 6.3m |
| 2035 | 6m | 6.3m | 5.7m | 4.8m – 7.2m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-5.16(2022)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | -5.54 | 2.93 | -10 | -6.69 – -4.4 |
| 2025 | -6.87 | 7.8 | -10 | -9.04 – -4.71 |
| 2027 | -8.2 | 10.74 | -10 | -10 – -5.18 |
| 2032 | -10 | 15 | -10 | -10 – -5.05 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.8bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2bn | 2.4bn | 1.6bn | 1.9bn – 2.1bn |
| 2028 | 2.5bn | 3.1bn | 1.9bn | 2.3bn – 2.7bn |
| 2030 | 3bn | 3.8bn | 2.1bn | 2.6bn – 3.3bn |
| 2035 | 4.1bn | 5.3bn | 3bn | 3.3bn – 5bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.35(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.98 | 2.42 | 1.54 | 1.88 – 2.08 |
| 2028 | 1.54 | 2.3 | 0.78 | 1.35 – 1.73 |
| 2030 | 1.32 | 2.3 | 0.34 | 1.07 – 1.58 |
| 2035 | 1.15 | 2.53 | 0 | 0.75 – 1.54 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.8bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2bn | 2.4bn | 1.6bn | 1.9bn – 2.1bn |
| 2028 | 2.5bn | 3.1bn | 1.9bn | 2.3bn – 2.7bn |
| 2030 | 3bn | 3.8bn | 2.1bn | 2.6bn – 3.3bn |
| 2035 | 4.1bn | 5.3bn | 3bn | 3.3bn – 5bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed24.42(2022)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 24.27 | 26.28 | 22.25 | 23.52 – 25.02 |
| 2025 | 23.96 | 27.46 | 20.47 | 22.19 – 25.74 |
| 2027 | 23.66 | 28.17 | 19.15 | 20.97 – 26.35 |
| 2032 | 22.9 | 29.27 | 16.52 | 18.15 – 27.65 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/PSE · API docs
