Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Pacific island small states: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 22/100); the economy is in slowdown; 13 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 2.94 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.56, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.50) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2007-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2020-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-7% skill vs naive; realized ±0.823 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Pacific island small states: forward projections across 11 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed41.48(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 41.29 | 56.77 | 27.87 | 38.41 – 44.16 |
| 2027 | 40.9 | 67.72 | 17.66 | 35.11 – 46.69 |
| 2029 | 40.52 | 75.13 | 10.51 | 32.33 – 48.7 |
| 2034 | 39.55 | 88.51 | 0 | 26.23 – 52.88 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed13bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 13.5bn | 15.2bn | 12.1bn | 13.1bn – 14bn |
| 2028 | 14.9bn | 17.7bn | 12.4bn | 13.8bn – 16bn |
| 2030 | 16.2bn | 19.8bn | 13bn | 14.3bn – 18bn |
| 2035 | 19.5bn | 24.6bn | 15bn | 15.4bn – 23.5bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.32(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.94 | 12 | -7.21 | 0.94 – 4.94 |
| 2028 | 2.37 | 12 | -10 | -1.13 – 5.86 |
| 2030 | 1.8 | 12 | -10 | -2.71 – 6.31 |
| 2035 | 0.38 | 12 | -10 | -5.96 – 6.71 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.7k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.9k | 5.5k | 4.3k | 4.7k – 5k |
| 2028 | 5.2k | 6.3k | 4.3k | 4.9k – 5.6k |
| 2030 | 5.6k | 7k | 4.4k | 5k – 6.3k |
| 2035 | 6.6k | 8.5k | 4.9k | 5.2k – 7.9k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed64.67(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 66.45 | 78.32 | 54.58 | 63.57 – 69.33 |
| 2027 | 70.03 | 90.58 | 49.47 | 63.52 – 76.53 |
| 2029 | 73.6 | 100.14 | 47.06 | 63.65 – 83.55 |
| 2034 | 82.53 | 120.07 | 45 | 63.58 – 101.48 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.43(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.44 | 8.03 | -5 | -0.04 – 2.92 |
| 2028 | 0.01 | 11.42 | -5 | -2.57 – 2.59 |
| 2030 | -1.42 | 13.31 | -5 | -4.8 – 1.96 |
| 2035 | -4.99 | 15.84 | -5 | -5 – 0.42 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.52(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22.67 | 24.36 | 21.21 | 21.97 – 23.37 |
| 2027 | 23.11 | 26.04 | 20.57 | 21.4 – 24.82 |
| 2029 | 23.55 | 27.33 | 20.27 | 20.87 – 26.22 |
| 2034 | 24.64 | 29.99 | 20.01 | 19.53 – 29.75 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.8m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.7m | 2.9m | 2.6m | 2.7m – 2.8m |
| 2028 | 2.8m | 2.9m | 2.7m | 2.6m – 3m |
| 2030 | 2.8m | 3m | 2.7m | 2.5m – 3.1m |
| 2035 | 2.9m | 3m | 2.8m | 2.3m – 3.5m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.44(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.68 | 15 | -10 | -1.5 – 2.86 |
| 2028 | -0.64 | 15 | -10 | -4.44 – 3.15 |
| 2030 | -1.97 | 15 | -10 | -6.97 – 3.02 |
| 2035 | -5.29 | 15 | -10 | -10 – 2.4 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.02(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 7.12 | 10.04 | 4.21 | 6.56 – 7.68 |
| 2027 | 7.24 | 12.29 | 2.2 | 6.12 – 8.36 |
| 2029 | 7.3 | 13.82 | 0.79 | 5.72 – 8.88 |
| 2034 | 7.35 | 16.56 | 0 | 4.76 – 9.94 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.52(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.56 | 3.78 | 3.34 | 3.45 – 3.67 |
| 2028 | 3.65 | 4.03 | 3.26 | 3.38 – 3.92 |
| 2030 | 3.73 | 4.23 | 3.23 | 3.31 – 4.15 |
| 2035 | 3.94 | 4.65 | 3.24 | 3.13 – 4.76 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/PSS · API docs
