Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Post-demographic dividend: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 41/100); the economy is in slowdown; 15 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 1.77 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.18, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.26) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2020-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-6% skill vs naive; realized ±0.0161 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Post-demographic dividend: forward projections across 11 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed28.91(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 29.03 | 32.65 | 25.9 | 28.05 – 30.02 |
| 2028 | 29.28 | 35.54 | 23.85 | 26.98 – 31.58 |
| 2030 | 29.52 | 37.61 | 22.51 | 26 – 33.04 |
| 2035 | 30.13 | 41.57 | 20.21 | 23.67 – 36.58 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed67.4T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 69.7T | 74.1T | 65.9T | 67.5T – 71.8T |
| 2028 | 75.5T | 83.1T | 68.9T | 69.9T – 81.1T |
| 2030 | 81.3T | 91.1T | 72.7T | 72T – 90.5T |
| 2035 | 95.8T | 109.7T | 83.7T | 75.9T – 115.6T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.65(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.77 | 11.2 | -6.39 | 0.18 – 3.37 |
| 2028 | 2.02 | 12 | -10 | -0.8 – 4.83 |
| 2030 | 2.26 | 12 | -10 | -1.43 – 5.95 |
| 2035 | 2.87 | 12 | -10 | -2.56 – 8.29 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed59.5k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 61.3k | 65.3k | 57.9k | 59.4k – 63.2k |
| 2028 | 66.1k | 72.9k | 60.1k | 61.2k – 70.9k |
| 2030 | 70.8k | 79.6k | 63.1k | 62.8k – 78.8k |
| 2035 | 82.6k | 95.1k | 71.8k | 65.5k – 99.7k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed29.2(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 29.39 | 33.35 | 25.43 | 28.31 – 30.47 |
| 2028 | 29.77 | 36.63 | 22.91 | 27.29 – 32.25 |
| 2030 | 30.15 | 39.01 | 21.29 | 26.38 – 33.92 |
| 2035 | 31.1 | 43.63 | 18.57 | 24.21 – 38 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.37(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.61 | 8.8 | -4.03 | 1.2 – 4.02 |
| 2028 | 2.51 | 13.24 | -5 | 0.02 – 5.01 |
| 2030 | 2.42 | 16.27 | -5 | -0.84 – 5.68 |
| 2035 | 2.18 | 21.77 | -5 | -2.51 – 6.87 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.06(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22.03 | 23.19 | 21.03 | 21.35 – 22.71 |
| 2027 | 21.95 | 23.1 | 20.95 | 20.33 – 23.58 |
| 2029 | 21.87 | 23.02 | 20.88 | 19.39 – 24.36 |
| 2034 | 21.67 | 22.81 | 20.69 | 17.18 – 26.17 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.1bn | 1.2bn | 1.1bn | 1.1bn – 1.2bn |
| 2028 | 1.1bn | 1.2bn | 1.1bn | 1.1bn – 1.2bn |
| 2030 | 1.1bn | 1.2bn | 1.1bn | 1bn – 1.3bn |
| 2035 | 1.2bn | 1.2bn | 1.1bn | 913.5m – 1.4bn |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.53(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.41 | 7.59 | -3.23 | 0.61 – 2.2 |
| 2028 | 1.18 | 11.88 | -6.85 | -0.22 – 2.57 |
| 2030 | 0.95 | 14.77 | -9.41 | -0.86 – 2.76 |
| 2035 | 0.38 | 15 | -10 | -2.22 – 2.99 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.04(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.41 | 9.8 | 5.02 | 6.92 – 7.89 |
| 2028 | 7.85 | 12 | 3.71 | 6.84 – 8.86 |
| 2030 | 8.07 | 13.42 | 2.72 | 6.6 – 9.53 |
| 2035 | 8.24 | 15.81 | 0.68 | 5.77 – 10.72 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.7(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.31 | 5.45 | 3.16 | 4.06 – 4.55 |
| 2028 | 3.52 | 5.49 | 1.54 | 3.05 – 3.99 |
| 2030 | 2.73 | 5.28 | 0.18 | 2.12 – 3.34 |
| 2035 | 0.76 | 4.37 | 0 | 0.05 – 1.48 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/PST · API docs
