Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
French Polynesia: macro conditions look cautious (pressure 71/100); the economy is in slowdown; 9 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 0.87 for 2025.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as cautious (sentiment -0.42, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2025: cautious (projected sentiment -0.34) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-4% skill vs naive; realized ±5.9757 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
French Polynesia: forward projections across 8 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed18.32(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 18.49 | 31.01 | 7.64 | 16.41 – 20.58 |
| 2027 | 18.84 | 40.52 | 0.04 | 14.83 – 22.84 |
| 2029 | 19.18 | 47.17 | 0 | 13.65 – 24.71 |
| 2034 | 20.04 | 59.63 | 0 | 11.18 – 28.9 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.3bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 6.4bn | 7.2bn | 5.8bn | 6.2bn – 6.6bn |
| 2027 | 6.6bn | 7.9bn | 5.5bn | 6.1bn – 7.1bn |
| 2029 | 6.8bn | 8.5bn | 5.4bn | 6bn – 7.6bn |
| 2034 | 7.3bn | 9.7bn | 5.3bn | 5.8bn – 8.8bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.13(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.87 | 12 | -10 | -2.17 – 3.91 |
| 2027 | 0.44 | 12 | -10 | -4.85 – 5.72 |
| 2029 | 0 | 12 | -10 | -6.83 – 6.84 |
| 2034 | -1.08 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 8.65 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.4k(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22.7k | 25.3k | 20.4k | 22k – 23.4k |
| 2027 | 23.3k | 27.9k | 19.3k | 21.6k – 25k |
| 2029 | 24k | 29.9k | 18.8k | 21.2k – 26.7k |
| 2034 | 25.5k | 33.9k | 18.3k | 20.2k – 30.8k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed46.15(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 47.5 | 57.59 | 37.42 | 45.2 – 49.81 |
| 2027 | 50.22 | 67.68 | 32.75 | 45.13 – 55.3 |
| 2029 | 52.93 | 75.47 | 30.38 | 45.24 – 60.61 |
| 2034 | 59.71 | 91.59 | 27.83 | 45.28 – 74.14 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.91(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 21.9 | 29.08 | 15.67 | 20.52 – 23.27 |
| 2027 | 21.77 | 34.22 | 10.98 | 18.95 – 24.59 |
| 2029 | 21.64 | 37.71 | 7.71 | 17.61 – 25.67 |
| 2034 | 21.32 | 44.05 | 1.62 | 14.66 – 27.98 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed282.5k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 282.3k | 295.6k | 269.9k | 273.5k – 291k |
| 2028 | 283k | 296.4k | 270.6k | 262.1k – 304k |
| 2030 | 283.7k | 297.1k | 271.3k | 251.5k – 316k |
| 2035 | 285.5k | 299k | 273k | 226.3k – 344.8k |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.66(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11.39 | 11.98 | 10.8 | 11.04 – 11.74 |
| 2028 | 10.85 | 11.86 | 9.83 | 10.04 – 11.65 |
| 2030 | 10.3 | 11.61 | 8.99 | 9.13 – 11.47 |
| 2035 | 8.94 | 10.79 | 7.09 | 7.09 – 10.8 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/PYF · API docs
