Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Qatar: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 48/100); the economy is in contraction; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 18 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at -10 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.04, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment +0.06) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Contraction
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: weak track record (+9% skill vs naive; realized ±7.0876 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Qatar: forward projections across 14 macro indicators, horizons 2023, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2032, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed11(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 12.68 | 30 | -4.81 | 8.91 – 16.46 |
| 2029 | 16.05 | 30 | -14.26 | 9.09 – 23 |
| 2031 | 19.41 | 30 | -19.71 | 9.87 – 28.95 |
| 2036 | 27.82 | 30 | -27.5 | 12.08 – 30 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed68.6(2022)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 70.04 | 84.18 | 57.77 | 66.89 – 73.18 |
| 2025 | 72.91 | 97.42 | 51.67 | 65.91 – 79.91 |
| 2027 | 75.79 | 107.42 | 48.37 | 65.2 – 86.37 |
| 2032 | 82.97 | 127.71 | 44.2 | 63.31 – 102.64 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed215.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 220.6bn | 280.5bn | 168.7bn | 209.9bn – 231.2bn |
| 2029 | 229bn | 332.8bn | 139.1bn | 205.7bn – 252.4bn |
| 2031 | 237.5bn | 371.4bn | 121.4bn | 202.6bn – 272.4bn |
| 2036 | 258.6bn | 448bn | 94.5bn | 194.7bn – 322.6bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.9(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -10 | 0.73 | -10 | -10 – -8.05 |
| 2029 | -10 | 8.59 | -10 | -10 – -6.42 |
| 2031 | -10 | 12 | -10 | -10 – -5.2 |
| 2036 | -10 | 12 | -10 | -10 – -2.74 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed72.5k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 66.7k | 92.3k | 44.5k | 62.6k – 70.8k |
| 2029 | 63.3k | 107.6k | 24.8k | 55k – 71.6k |
| 2031 | 59.9k | 117.2k | 10.2k | 48.3k – 71.5k |
| 2036 | 51.4k | 132.4k | 0 | 33.5k – 69.3k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed43.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 41.12 | 56.68 | 23.16 | 38.07 – 44.17 |
| 2029 | 36.76 | 63.72 | 5.66 | 30.85 – 42.68 |
| 2031 | 32.41 | 67.21 | 0 | 24.46 – 40.35 |
| 2036 | 21.51 | 70.73 | 0 | 10.5 – 32.53 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed31.62(2022)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 30.84 | 38.5 | 23.18 | 29.17 – 32.5 |
| 2025 | 29.28 | 42.56 | 16.01 | 25.85 – 32.72 |
| 2027 | 27.73 | 44.86 | 10.6 | 22.89 – 32.57 |
| 2032 | 23.84 | 48.08 | 0 | 16.32 – 31.37 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.27(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.34 | 9.88 | 0.47 | 4.24 – 6.43 |
| 2029 | 9.96 | 17.82 | 1.53 | 7.73 – 12.18 |
| 2031 | 14.58 | 24.73 | 3.69 | 11.16 – 17.99 |
| 2036 | 26.13 | 40.49 | 10.74 | 18.76 – 33.49 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.2m | 3.4m | 2.9m | 3.1m – 3.3m |
| 2029 | 3.4m | 3.9m | 3m | 3.2m – 3.7m |
| 2031 | 3.7m | 4.3m | 3.1m | 3.2m – 4.1m |
| 2036 | 4.3m | 5.1m | 3.4m | 3.4m – 5.1m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-0.91(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.81 | 15 | -10 | -4.29 – 2.67 |
| 2028 | -0.72 | 15 | -10 | -6.77 – 5.34 |
| 2030 | -0.62 | 15 | -10 | -8.46 – 7.21 |
| 2035 | -0.39 | 15 | -10 | -10 – 10.73 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed39.7bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 39.9bn | 47.4bn | 32.4bn | 38.1bn – 41.6bn |
| 2028 | 40.3bn | 53.3bn | 27.3bn | 36.3bn – 44.2bn |
| 2030 | 40.7bn | 57.4bn | 23.9bn | 34.8bn – 46.5bn |
| 2035 | 41.7bn | 65.4bn | 18bn | 31.4bn – 52bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.45(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.97 | 9.61 | 4.34 | 6.46 – 7.49 |
| 2028 | 6.41 | 10.97 | 1.85 | 5.4 – 7.41 |
| 2030 | 6.13 | 12.01 | 0.24 | 4.74 – 7.52 |
| 2035 | 5.9 | 14.23 | 0 | 3.69 – 8.12 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed55.8bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 58.2bn | 63.6bn | 52.9bn | 56.4bn – 60.1bn |
| 2028 | 64.3bn | 73.5bn | 55.1bn | 59.6bn – 69.1bn |
| 2030 | 70.4bn | 82.3bn | 58.5bn | 62.4bn – 78.4bn |
| 2035 | 85.6bn | 102.3bn | 68.8bn | 67.8bn – 103.3bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.13(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.13 | 0.32 | 0 | 0.08 – 0.18 |
| 2028 | 0.12 | 0.32 | 0 | 0.07 – 0.17 |
| 2030 | 0.12 | 0.31 | 0 | 0.03 – 0.2 |
| 2035 | 0.11 | 0.3 | 0 | 0 – 0.27 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/QAT · API docs
