Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Romania: macro conditions look cautious (pressure 66/100); the economy is in slowdown; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 21 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 0.3 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as cautious (sentiment -0.32, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: cautious (projected sentiment -0.26) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-06-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-08-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-5% skill vs naive; realized ±0.3963 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Romania: forward projections across 16 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-6.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -8.57 | -5.31 | -11.82 | -9.37 – -7.76 |
| 2028 | -9.7 | -4.05 | -15.34 | -11.31 – -8.08 |
| 2030 | -10.83 | -3.54 | -18.11 | -13.18 – -8.47 |
| 2035 | -13.65 | -3.35 | -23.96 | -17.94 – -9.37 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed35.48(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 34.79 | 40.99 | 29.42 | 33.35 – 36.24 |
| 2028 | 33.41 | 44.15 | 24.1 | 30.27 – 36.55 |
| 2030 | 32.02 | 45.89 | 20.01 | 27.48 – 36.57 |
| 2035 | 28.57 | 48.18 | 11.57 | 21.19 – 35.94 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed428.7bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 458.5bn | 497.8bn | 424.4bn | 444.3bn – 472.7bn |
| 2028 | 532.3bn | 600.5bn | 473.2bn | 492.9bn – 571.7bn |
| 2030 | 606.1bn | 694.2bn | 529.9bn | 537.3bn – 675bn |
| 2035 | 790.7bn | 915.2bn | 682.8bn | 626.7bn – 954.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.68(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.3 | 9.13 | -7.34 | -1.18 – 1.79 |
| 2028 | -0.56 | 12 | -10 | -3.15 – 2.04 |
| 2030 | -1.42 | 12 | -10 | -4.82 – 1.98 |
| 2035 | -3.57 | 12 | -10 | -8.79 – 1.65 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.5k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 24.1k | 26.1k | 22.3k | 23.3k – 24.8k |
| 2028 | 28k | 31.5k | 24.9k | 25.9k – 30k |
| 2030 | 31.9k | 36.4k | 27.9k | 28.2k – 35.5k |
| 2035 | 41.6k | 48k | 36k | 33k – 50.2k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed61.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 63.4 | 71.01 | 54.61 | 61.21 – 65.58 |
| 2028 | 68.99 | 82.18 | 53.76 | 63.65 – 74.33 |
| 2030 | 74.58 | 91.61 | 54.93 | 65.99 – 83.17 |
| 2035 | 88.56 | 112.64 | 60.76 | 70.19 – 106.93 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed40.73(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 40.32 | 47.57 | 33.06 | 38.56 – 42.07 |
| 2028 | 39.5 | 52.06 | 26.93 | 35.68 – 43.32 |
| 2030 | 38.67 | 54.9 | 22.45 | 33.1 – 44.25 |
| 2035 | 36.62 | 59.56 | 13.68 | 27.25 – 45.99 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.19(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.21 | 17.89 | -2.16 | 5.93 – 10.49 |
| 2028 | 10.27 | 27.03 | -5 | 6.06 – 14.48 |
| 2030 | 12.32 | 33.97 | -5 | 6.54 – 18.11 |
| 2035 | 17.46 | 48.07 | -5 | 7.88 – 27.04 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.3(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 6.17 | 14.5 | -2.75 | 4.22 – 8.11 |
| 2029 | 6.04 | 20.47 | -5 | 2.55 – 9.53 |
| 2031 | 6 | 24.62 | -5 | 1.39 – 10.6 |
| 2036 | 5.97 | 32.31 | -5 | -0.82 – 12.77 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed25.61(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 25.81 | 27.86 | 24.04 | 25.01 – 26.61 |
| 2028 | 26.38 | 29.92 | 23.3 | 24.42 – 28.33 |
| 2030 | 26.94 | 31.52 | 22.98 | 23.88 – 30 |
| 2035 | 28.36 | 34.83 | 22.75 | 22.48 – 34.24 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed19m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 19m | 19.9m | 18.2m | 18.4m – 19.6m |
| 2028 | 19m | 19.9m | 18.2m | 17.6m – 20.4m |
| 2030 | 19m | 19.9m | 18.1m | 16.8m – 21.1m |
| 2035 | 18.9m | 19.8m | 18m | 15m – 22.8m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.55(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.98 | 10.35 | -6.04 | -0.2 – 2.17 |
| 2028 | -0.29 | 15 | -10 | -2.37 – 1.78 |
| 2030 | -1.57 | 15 | -10 | -4.32 – 1.17 |
| 2035 | -4.76 | 15 | -10 | -9.23 – -0.3 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed76.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 81.6bn | 94.2bn | 69bn | 78.4bn – 84.8bn |
| 2028 | 95.4bn | 117.1bn | 73.6bn | 87.5bn – 103.3bn |
| 2030 | 109.2bn | 137.3bn | 81.1bn | 96.2bn – 122.2bn |
| 2035 | 143.7bn | 183.4bn | 104bn | 113.9bn – 173.5bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.53(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.32 | 6.87 | 3.76 | 4.99 – 5.64 |
| 2028 | 5.07 | 7.76 | 2.37 | 4.41 – 5.72 |
| 2030 | 4.95 | 8.42 | 1.47 | 4.02 – 5.87 |
| 2035 | 4.85 | 9.77 | 0 | 3.32 – 6.38 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed90.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 97.8bn | 112.2bn | 83.4bn | 94bn – 101.6bn |
| 2028 | 115.7bn | 140.6bn | 90.8bn | 106.4bn – 125.1bn |
| 2030 | 133.7bn | 165.8bn | 101.6bn | 118.1bn – 149.3bn |
| 2035 | 178.6bn | 224bn | 133.1bn | 141.5bn – 215.6bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.99(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.11 | 6.74 | 5.48 | 5.92 – 6.31 |
| 2028 | 6.35 | 7.44 | 5.26 | 5.88 – 6.82 |
| 2030 | 6.59 | 7.99 | 5.19 | 5.84 – 7.34 |
| 2035 | 7.19 | 9.17 | 5.21 | 5.7 – 8.68 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/ROU · API docs
