Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Romania: macro conditions look cautious (pressure 61/100); the economy is in expansion; 20 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 0.34 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as cautious (sentiment -0.22, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: cautious (projected sentiment -0.26) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-06-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-5% skill vs naive; realized ±6.0119 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Romania: forward projections across 16 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-6.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -7.13 | -3.67 | -10.59 | -7.95 – -6.31 |
| 2029 | -7.8 | -1.8 | -13.79 | -9.39 – -6.2 |
| 2031 | -8.46 | -0.72 | -16.2 | -10.72 – -6.2 |
| 2036 | -10.12 | 0.83 | -21.07 | -13.97 – -6.27 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed35.48(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 34.79 | 40.99 | 29.42 | 33.35 – 36.24 |
| 2028 | 33.41 | 44.15 | 24.1 | 30.27 – 36.55 |
| 2030 | 32.02 | 45.89 | 20.01 | 27.48 – 36.57 |
| 2035 | 28.57 | 48.18 | 11.57 | 21.19 – 35.94 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed428.7bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 512.7bn | 552.3bn | 478.3bn | 496.8bn – 528.6bn |
| 2029 | 593.3bn | 661.9bn | 533.8bn | 549.4bn – 637.2bn |
| 2031 | 673.9bn | 762.5bn | 597.1bn | 597.4bn – 750.4bn |
| 2036 | 875.3bn | 1T | 766.7bn | 693.8bn – 1.1T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.68(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 0.34 | 1.9 | -1.02 | 0.06 – 0.61 |
| 2029 | -0.59 | 2.12 | -2.93 | -1.09 – -0.09 |
| 2031 | -1.51 | 1.98 | -4.54 | -2.21 – -0.81 |
| 2036 | -3.82 | 1.12 | -8.09 | -5.25 – -2.38 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.5k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 27.4k | 29.6k | 25.5k | 26.6k – 28.3k |
| 2029 | 31.8k | 35.6k | 28.6k | 29.5k – 34.2k |
| 2031 | 36.3k | 41.1k | 32.1k | 32.2k – 40.4k |
| 2036 | 47.4k | 54.2k | 41.4k | 37.5k – 57.2k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed61.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 64.96 | 72 | 56.84 | 62.84 – 67.09 |
| 2029 | 71.09 | 83.29 | 57.02 | 65.8 – 76.38 |
| 2031 | 77.22 | 92.96 | 59.05 | 68.45 – 85.99 |
| 2036 | 92.54 | 114.8 | 66.85 | 73.34 – 111.73 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed40.73(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 40.32 | 47.57 | 33.06 | 38.56 – 42.07 |
| 2028 | 39.5 | 52.06 | 26.93 | 35.68 – 43.32 |
| 2030 | 38.67 | 54.9 | 22.45 | 33.1 – 44.25 |
| 2035 | 36.62 | 59.56 | 13.68 | 27.25 – 45.99 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.19(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 8.04 | 17.6 | -2.2 | 5.8 – 10.29 |
| 2029 | 8.9 | 25.46 | -5 | 4.8 – 13 |
| 2031 | 9.76 | 31.13 | -5 | 4.24 – 15.27 |
| 2036 | 11.89 | 42.12 | -5 | 3.29 – 20.5 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.2(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 8.02 | 16.12 | -0.65 | 6.1 – 9.95 |
| 2029 | 6.9 | 20.92 | -5 | 3.45 – 10.34 |
| 2031 | 6.49 | 24.6 | -5 | 1.96 – 11.02 |
| 2036 | 6.28 | 31.89 | -5 | -0.4 – 12.96 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed25.61(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 25.81 | 27.86 | 24.04 | 25.01 – 26.61 |
| 2028 | 26.38 | 29.92 | 23.3 | 24.42 – 28.33 |
| 2030 | 26.94 | 31.52 | 22.98 | 23.88 – 30 |
| 2035 | 28.36 | 34.83 | 22.75 | 22.48 – 34.24 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed19m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 18.7m | 19.6m | 17.9m | 18.1m – 19.3m |
| 2029 | 18.4m | 19.2m | 17.6m | 17m – 19.7m |
| 2031 | 18m | 18.9m | 17.2m | 16m – 20.1m |
| 2036 | 17.2m | 18m | 16.4m | 13.6m – 20.7m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.55(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.98 | 10.35 | -6.04 | -0.2 – 2.17 |
| 2028 | -0.29 | 15 | -10 | -2.37 – 1.78 |
| 2030 | -1.57 | 15 | -10 | -4.32 – 1.17 |
| 2035 | -4.76 | 15 | -10 | -9.23 – -0.3 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed76.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 81.6bn | 94.2bn | 69bn | 78.4bn – 84.8bn |
| 2028 | 95.4bn | 117.1bn | 73.6bn | 87.5bn – 103.3bn |
| 2030 | 109.2bn | 137.3bn | 81.1bn | 96.2bn – 122.2bn |
| 2035 | 143.7bn | 183.4bn | 104bn | 113.9bn – 173.5bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.53(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.32 | 6.87 | 3.76 | 4.99 – 5.64 |
| 2028 | 5.07 | 7.76 | 2.37 | 4.41 – 5.72 |
| 2030 | 4.95 | 8.42 | 1.47 | 4.02 – 5.87 |
| 2035 | 4.85 | 9.77 | 0 | 3.32 – 6.38 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed90.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 97.8bn | 112.2bn | 83.4bn | 94bn – 101.6bn |
| 2028 | 115.7bn | 140.6bn | 90.8bn | 106.4bn – 125.1bn |
| 2030 | 133.7bn | 165.8bn | 101.6bn | 118.1bn – 149.3bn |
| 2035 | 178.6bn | 224bn | 133.1bn | 141.5bn – 215.6bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.99(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 6.09 | 6.61 | 5.56 | 5.9 – 6.27 |
| 2029 | 6.26 | 7.16 | 5.35 | 5.79 – 6.72 |
| 2031 | 6.43 | 7.59 | 5.26 | 5.7 – 7.16 |
| 2036 | 6.86 | 8.5 | 5.21 | 5.43 – 8.28 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/ROU · API docs
