Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Russia: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 46/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 21 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 0.33 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.08, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.12) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2022-01-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2023-05-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-4% skill vs naive; realized ±0.767 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Russia: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed2.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.13 | 8.76 | -6.49 | -0.44 – 2.71 |
| 2028 | 0.2 | 13.41 | -13.01 | -2.54 – 2.94 |
| 2030 | -0.73 | 16.32 | -17.78 | -4.29 – 2.83 |
| 2035 | -3.07 | 21.05 | -27.18 | -8.48 – 2.35 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed18.2(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16.64 | 22.54 | 11.52 | 15.53 – 17.75 |
| 2028 | 13.5 | 23.73 | 4.64 | 11.4 – 15.61 |
| 2030 | 10.37 | 23.57 | 0 | 7.66 – 13.09 |
| 2035 | 2.54 | 21.21 | 0 | 0 – 5.61 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.6T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.6T | 3.2T | 2.2T | 2.5T – 2.7T |
| 2028 | 2.9T | 3.8T | 2T | 2.6T – 3.1T |
| 2030 | 3.1T | 4.3T | 2T | 2.7T – 3.5T |
| 2035 | 3.6T | 5.3T | 2.1T | 2.8T – 4.4T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.33 | 12 | -10 | -1.72 – 2.39 |
| 2028 | -1.11 | 12 | -10 | -4.7 – 2.47 |
| 2030 | -2.56 | 12 | -10 | -7.32 – 2.2 |
| 2035 | -6.17 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 1.26 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed17.5k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18.1k | 21.8k | 14.8k | 17.3k – 18.8k |
| 2028 | 19.6k | 26.1k | 14k | 17.9k – 21.3k |
| 2030 | 21.2k | 29.5k | 13.9k | 18.5k – 23.8k |
| 2035 | 25k | 36.8k | 14.8k | 19.6k – 30.4k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed19.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 17.41 | 21.5 | 12.69 | 16.5 – 18.32 |
| 2028 | 17.83 | 24.92 | 9.65 | 15.88 – 19.78 |
| 2030 | 18.25 | 27.4 | 7.69 | 15.38 – 21.12 |
| 2035 | 19.3 | 32.24 | 4.36 | 14.22 – 24.38 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed15.51(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 14.74 | 19.67 | 9.81 | 13.75 – 15.73 |
| 2028 | 13.21 | 21.75 | 4.67 | 11.27 – 15.15 |
| 2030 | 11.68 | 22.7 | 0.66 | 9.06 – 14.3 |
| 2035 | 7.85 | 23.44 | 0 | 4.21 – 11.5 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.72(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.75 | 18.85 | -2.07 | 6.37 – 11.13 |
| 2028 | 9.15 | 26.64 | -5 | 4.83 – 13.47 |
| 2030 | 9.55 | 32.13 | -5 | 3.78 – 15.32 |
| 2035 | 10.55 | 42.48 | -5 | 1.78 – 19.31 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed23.09(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23.62 | 26.11 | 21.47 | 22.89 – 24.35 |
| 2028 | 24.93 | 29.23 | 21.2 | 23.08 – 26.77 |
| 2030 | 26.23 | 31.79 | 21.42 | 23.26 – 29.21 |
| 2035 | 29.5 | 37.36 | 22.69 | 23.38 – 35.62 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed143.5m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 143.6m | 150.4m | 137.3m | 139.1m – 148m |
| 2028 | 143.4m | 150.2m | 137.1m | 132.8m – 154m |
| 2030 | 143.3m | 150m | 137m | 127m – 159.5m |
| 2035 | 142.8m | 149.6m | 136.6m | 113.2m – 172.5m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.67(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.47 | 12.37 | -4.96 | 1.19 – 3.74 |
| 2028 | 4.01 | 15 | -8.85 | 1.68 – 6.35 |
| 2030 | 5.56 | 15 | -10 | 2.35 – 8.78 |
| 2035 | 9.44 | 15 | -10 | 4.01 – 14.86 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed412.7bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 401.8bn | 473.9bn | 329.6bn | 384.3bn – 419.3bn |
| 2027 | 377.9bn | 502.9bn | 253bn | 340.7bn – 415.2bn |
| 2029 | 354.1bn | 515.4bn | 192.8bn | 301.1bn – 407.1bn |
| 2034 | 294.5bn | 522.6bn | 66.4bn | 212.5bn – 376.6bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16.78(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 16.19 | 19.91 | 12.47 | 15.37 – 17.02 |
| 2027 | 15.5 | 21.94 | 9.06 | 13.77 – 17.23 |
| 2029 | 15.16 | 23.47 | 6.84 | 12.67 – 17.64 |
| 2034 | 14.89 | 26.65 | 3.13 | 10.71 – 19.07 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed608.4bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 611.5bn | 686.6bn | 536.4bn | 590.2bn – 632.8bn |
| 2027 | 623.7bn | 753.8bn | 493.6bn | 573.8bn – 673.5bn |
| 2029 | 635.9bn | 803.8bn | 467.9bn | 559.3bn – 712.5bn |
| 2034 | 666.4bn | 903.9bn | 428.9bn | 523.4bn – 809.3bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.13(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.41 | 1.84 | 0.99 | 1.33 – 1.5 |
| 2028 | 0 | 0.74 | 0 | 0 – 0.16 |
| 2030 | 0 | 0.95 | 0 | 0 – 0.23 |
| 2035 | 0 | 1.35 | 0 | 0 – 0.37 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/RUS · API docs
