Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Rwanda: macro conditions look cautious (pressure 55/100); the economy is in expansion; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 10.09 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as cautious (sentiment -0.10, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: cautious (projected sentiment -0.12) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: moderate track record (+19% skill vs naive; realized ±2.8877 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Rwanda: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-13.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -13.23 | -10.64 | -15.83 | -13.98 – -12.49 |
| 2028 | -13.7 | -9.2 | -18.21 | -15.28 – -12.13 |
| 2030 | -14.17 | -8.36 | -19.98 | -16.49 – -11.85 |
| 2035 | -15.35 | -7.13 | -23.56 | -19.48 – -11.21 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.55(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 22.14 | 29.72 | 15.57 | 20.7 – 23.58 |
| 2028 | 23.3 | 36.43 | 11.93 | 20.31 – 26.3 |
| 2030 | 24.47 | 41.42 | 9.78 | 20.09 – 28.85 |
| 2035 | 27.39 | 51.36 | 6.61 | 19.58 – 35.19 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 17.1bn | 18.6bn | 15.7bn | 16.5bn – 17.6bn |
| 2028 | 18.8bn | 21.6bn | 16.5bn | 17.5bn – 20.2bn |
| 2030 | 20.6bn | 24.2bn | 17.6bn | 18.3bn – 23bn |
| 2035 | 25.1bn | 30.1bn | 20.8bn | 19.9bn – 30.3bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.38(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.09 | 12 | 1.72 | 8.32 – 11.86 |
| 2028 | 11.81 | 12 | -2.68 | 8.46 – 12 |
| 2030 | 12 | 12 | -6.71 | 7.44 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 4.99 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.2k | 1.3k | 1.1k | 1.1k – 1.2k |
| 2028 | 1.2k | 1.4k | 1.1k | 1.1k – 1.3k |
| 2030 | 1.3k | 1.6k | 1.1k | 1.2k – 1.5k |
| 2035 | 1.5k | 1.9k | 1.2k | 1.2k – 1.9k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed66.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 67.07 | 76.49 | 56.21 | 64.55 – 69.6 |
| 2028 | 72.02 | 88.33 | 53.2 | 66.05 – 77.99 |
| 2030 | 76.97 | 98.02 | 52.67 | 67.57 – 86.36 |
| 2035 | 89.33 | 119.11 | 54.97 | 70.46 – 108.21 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed35.12(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 37.44 | 50.16 | 24.71 | 34.89 – 39.98 |
| 2028 | 42.07 | 64.11 | 20.02 | 36.67 – 47.46 |
| 2030 | 46.7 | 75.16 | 18.24 | 38.61 – 54.79 |
| 2035 | 58.28 | 98.53 | 18.04 | 42.8 – 73.77 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.91(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.01 | 34.29 | -5 | 3.27 – 14.76 |
| 2028 | 14.81 | 50 | -5 | 4.4 – 25.23 |
| 2030 | 20.61 | 50 | -5 | 6.44 – 34.79 |
| 2035 | 35.11 | 50 | -5 | 11.78 – 50 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed32.19(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 32.98 | 42.41 | 24.8 | 31.1 – 34.85 |
| 2028 | 35.12 | 51.47 | 20.96 | 31.1 – 39.14 |
| 2030 | 37.27 | 58.37 | 18.98 | 31.27 – 43.27 |
| 2035 | 42.64 | 70 | 16.78 | 31.55 – 53.72 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.6m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 14.5m | 15.2m | 13.9m | 14m – 14.9m |
| 2028 | 14.8m | 15.5m | 14.2m | 13.7m – 15.9m |
| 2030 | 15.2m | 15.9m | 14.5m | 13.5m – 16.9m |
| 2035 | 16m | 16.8m | 15.3m | 12.7m – 19.4m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.22(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7 | 15 | -10 | 2.16 – 11.85 |
| 2028 | 8.92 | 15 | -10 | 0.3 – 15 |
| 2030 | 10.84 | 15 | -10 | -0.61 – 15 |
| 2035 | 15 | 15 | -10 | -2.36 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.1bn | 2.6bn | 1.5bn | 2bn – 2.2bn |
| 2028 | 2.3bn | 3.3bn | 1.3bn | 2.1bn – 2.6bn |
| 2030 | 2.6bn | 3.8bn | 1.3bn | 2.2bn – 3bn |
| 2035 | 3.2bn | 5bn | 1.3bn | 2.4bn – 3.9bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.18(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 4.21 | 5.59 | 2.83 | 3.93 – 4.49 |
| 2027 | 4.24 | 6.63 | 1.85 | 3.67 – 4.81 |
| 2029 | 4.25 | 7.34 | 1.17 | 3.44 – 5.07 |
| 2034 | 4.27 | 8.64 | 0 | 2.92 – 5.62 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.1bn | 2.6bn | 1.5bn | 2bn – 2.2bn |
| 2028 | 2.3bn | 3.3bn | 1.3bn | 2.1bn – 2.6bn |
| 2030 | 2.6bn | 3.8bn | 1.3bn | 2.2bn – 3bn |
| 2035 | 3.2bn | 5bn | 1.3bn | 2.4bn – 3.9bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.36(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.84 | 15.18 | 6.5 | 10 – 11.68 |
| 2028 | 9.79 | 17.3 | 2.27 | 8.17 – 11.41 |
| 2030 | 8.74 | 18.44 | 0 | 6.55 – 10.92 |
| 2035 | 6.11 | 19.83 | 0 | 3.03 – 9.19 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/RWA · API docs
