Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
SAQ: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 25/100); the economy is in expansion; 7 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 7.65 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.50, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.48) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-13% skill vs naive; realized ±1.2483 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
SAQ: forward projections across 7 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-1.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.22 | 2.22 | -2.66 | -0.74 – 0.29 |
| 2028 | 0.13 | 4.36 | -4.09 | -0.78 – 1.04 |
| 2030 | 0.49 | 5.94 | -4.97 | -0.71 – 1.68 |
| 2035 | 1.37 | 9.08 | -6.34 | -0.42 – 3.17 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.2T(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.1T | 5.6T | 4.8T | 5T – 5.3T |
| 2028 | 5.6T | 6.4T | 5T | 5.2T – 6T |
| 2030 | 6.1T | 7.1T | 5.3T | 5.4T – 6.8T |
| 2035 | 7.3T | 8.7T | 6.1T | 5.8T – 8.8T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.65 | 12 | -2.49 | 5.58 – 9.72 |
| 2028 | 9.15 | 12 | -8.41 | 5.33 – 12 |
| 2030 | 10.64 | 12 | -10 | 5.43 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 3.92 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.7k(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.6k | 2.9k | 2.4k | 2.6k – 2.7k |
| 2028 | 2.8k | 3.3k | 2.5k | 2.6k – 3.1k |
| 2030 | 3.1k | 3.6k | 2.6k | 2.7k – 3.4k |
| 2035 | 3.6k | 4.3k | 2.9k | 2.8k – 4.3k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed77.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 81.26 | 88.52 | 72.88 | 78.74 – 83.78 |
| 2028 | 84.98 | 97.56 | 70.46 | 78.69 – 91.26 |
| 2030 | 88.7 | 104.94 | 69.96 | 78.63 – 98.77 |
| 2035 | 97.99 | 120.96 | 71.49 | 77.67 – 118.32 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.61 | 5.21 | -2.25 | 0.79 – 2.43 |
| 2028 | -3.29 | 2.95 | -5 | -4.83 – -1.75 |
| 2030 | -5 | 3.05 | -5 | -5 – -2.82 |
| 2035 | -5 | 6.39 | -5 | -5 – -1.68 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.9bn(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.9bn | 2bn | 1.8bn | 1.9bn – 2bn |
| 2028 | 1.9bn | 2bn | 1.9bn | 1.8bn – 2.1bn |
| 2030 | 2bn | 2.1bn | 1.9bn | 1.7bn – 2.2bn |
| 2035 | 2bn | 2.1bn | 1.9bn | 1.6bn – 2.4bn |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-11-01 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/SAQ · API docs
