Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
South Asia: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 24/100); the economy is in expansion; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 15 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 7.7 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.52, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.56) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2020-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-13% skill vs naive; realized ±7.0828 over 25) · a track record, not a guarantee
South Asia: forward projections across 11 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed21.04(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21.51 | 24.65 | 18.79 | 20.72 – 22.3 |
| 2028 | 22.46 | 27.89 | 17.75 | 20.6 – 24.31 |
| 2030 | 23.4 | 30.41 | 17.33 | 20.53 – 26.28 |
| 2035 | 25.77 | 35.68 | 17.18 | 20.23 – 31.31 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.6T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.8T | 5.2T | 4.4T | 4.6T – 4.9T |
| 2028 | 5.2T | 5.9T | 4.6T | 4.9T – 5.6T |
| 2030 | 5.7T | 6.6T | 4.9T | 5.1T – 6.4T |
| 2035 | 6.9T | 8.2T | 5.8T | 5.5T – 8.3T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.12(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.7 | 12 | -3.16 | 5.49 – 9.91 |
| 2028 | 9.06 | 12 | -9.76 | 5 – 12 |
| 2030 | 10.41 | 12 | -10 | 4.91 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 3.47 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.7k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.8k | 3k | 2.6k | 2.7k – 2.9k |
| 2028 | 3k | 3.5k | 2.7k | 2.8k – 3.3k |
| 2030 | 3.3k | 3.8k | 2.8k | 2.9k – 3.7k |
| 2035 | 3.9k | 4.7k | 3.2k | 3.1k – 4.7k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed23.46(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23.74 | 28.78 | 18.7 | 22.59 – 24.9 |
| 2028 | 24.3 | 33.03 | 15.57 | 21.8 – 26.8 |
| 2030 | 24.86 | 36.13 | 13.59 | 21.15 – 28.57 |
| 2035 | 26.25 | 42.19 | 10.32 | 19.61 – 32.89 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.1(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.1 | 6.02 | -0.02 | 2.41 – 3.8 |
| 2028 | 2.24 | 7.28 | -3.17 | 1.01 – 3.46 |
| 2030 | 1.37 | 7.89 | -5 | -0.18 – 2.92 |
| 2035 | -0.8 | 8.42 | -5 | -3 – 1.41 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed31.04(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 30.96 | 33.73 | 28.57 | 30 – 31.92 |
| 2028 | 30.92 | 35.71 | 26.78 | 28.64 – 33.21 |
| 2030 | 30.88 | 37.06 | 25.53 | 27.38 – 34.39 |
| 2035 | 30.78 | 39.51 | 23.21 | 24.4 – 37.17 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.7bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.7bn | 1.8bn | 1.6bn | 1.6bn – 1.7bn |
| 2028 | 1.7bn | 1.8bn | 1.6bn | 1.6bn – 1.8bn |
| 2030 | 1.7bn | 1.8bn | 1.6bn | 1.5bn – 1.9bn |
| 2035 | 1.8bn | 1.8bn | 1.7bn | 1.4bn – 2.1bn |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.61(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.45 | 15 | -0.5 | 5.19 – 7.71 |
| 2028 | 8.56 | 15 | -3.48 | 6.14 – 10.97 |
| 2030 | 10.67 | 15 | -4.87 | 7.22 – 14.11 |
| 2035 | 15 | 15 | -6.97 | 8.94 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.72(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.89 | 12.09 | 3.7 | 7.13 – 8.66 |
| 2028 | 8.1 | 15.37 | 0.83 | 6.6 – 9.6 |
| 2030 | 8.2 | 17.59 | 0 | 6.11 – 10.29 |
| 2035 | 8.28 | 21.56 | 0 | 4.93 – 11.64 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.24(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.56 | 4.81 | 2.31 | 3.31 – 3.8 |
| 2028 | 2.18 | 4.35 | 0.02 | 1.75 – 2.62 |
| 2030 | 0.81 | 3.6 | 0 | 0.3 – 1.32 |
| 2035 | 0 | 3.95 | 0 | 0 – 0.76 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/SAS · API docs
