Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Saudi Arabia: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 30/100); the economy is in slowdown; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 2.93 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.40, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: supportive (projected sentiment +0.46) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-5% skill vs naive; realized ±7.2735 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Saudi Arabia: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-1.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -2.27 | 10.64 | -15.18 | -4.94 – 0.4 |
| 2029 | -3.61 | 18.75 | -25.96 | -8.34 – 1.13 |
| 2031 | -4.95 | 23.91 | -30 | -11.23 – 1.34 |
| 2036 | -8.29 | 30 | -30 | -17.95 – 1.37 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed29.74(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 29.43 | 40.1 | 20.18 | 27.43 – 31.42 |
| 2028 | 28.79 | 47.28 | 12.77 | 24.77 – 32.82 |
| 2030 | 28.16 | 52.03 | 7.48 | 22.5 – 33.82 |
| 2035 | 26.58 | 60.33 | 0 | 17.5 – 35.65 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.3T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.4T | 1.7T | 1.2T | 1.4T – 1.5T |
| 2029 | 1.6T | 2T | 1.2T | 1.4T – 1.7T |
| 2031 | 1.7T | 2.3T | 1.2T | 1.5T – 1.9T |
| 2036 | 2T | 2.8T | 1.3T | 1.6T – 2.4T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.5(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.93 | 12 | -7.64 | 0.85 – 5.02 |
| 2029 | 2.4 | 12 | -10 | -1.24 – 6.04 |
| 2031 | 1.87 | 12 | -10 | -2.83 – 6.56 |
| 2036 | 0.53 | 12 | -10 | -6.06 – 7.12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed34.5k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 38.4k | 47.6k | 30.3k | 36.6k – 40.1k |
| 2029 | 40k | 56k | 26.1k | 36.2k – 43.8k |
| 2031 | 41.6k | 62.3k | 23.7k | 35.8k – 47.4k |
| 2036 | 45.7k | 75k | 20.3k | 34.9k – 56.5k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed32.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 33.64 | 41.13 | 24.99 | 31.95 – 35.33 |
| 2029 | 36.71 | 49.7 | 21.74 | 32.96 – 40.47 |
| 2031 | 39.79 | 56.55 | 20.45 | 34.03 – 45.55 |
| 2036 | 47.48 | 71.18 | 20.13 | 36.24 – 58.73 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.17(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 28.73 | 32.55 | 24.91 | 27.69 – 29.78 |
| 2028 | 29.86 | 36.47 | 23.24 | 27.41 – 32.3 |
| 2030 | 30.98 | 39.52 | 22.43 | 27.19 – 34.76 |
| 2035 | 33.78 | 45.86 | 21.7 | 26.53 – 41.04 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.08(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.37 | 3.21 | 1.47 | 2.15 – 2.6 |
| 2029 | 2.67 | 4.13 | 1.11 | 2.22 – 3.12 |
| 2031 | 2.97 | 4.86 | 0.95 | 2.32 – 3.63 |
| 2036 | 3.73 | 6.4 | 0.87 | 2.54 – 4.92 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed30.11(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 31.52 | 34.73 | 28.74 | 30.55 – 32.5 |
| 2028 | 34.95 | 40.51 | 30.13 | 32.37 – 37.54 |
| 2030 | 38.38 | 45.56 | 32.16 | 34.02 – 42.74 |
| 2035 | 46.95 | 57.11 | 38.15 | 37.21 – 56.69 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed37m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 36.1m | 38.1m | 34.3m | 35m – 37.3m |
| 2029 | 35.9m | 39.2m | 32.7m | 33.2m – 38.5m |
| 2031 | 35.6m | 39.9m | 31.6m | 31.5m – 39.6m |
| 2036 | 34.9m | 41m | 29.2m | 27.7m – 42.1m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-0.82(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -1.49 | 15 | -10 | -3.98 – 1 |
| 2028 | -2.72 | 15 | -10 | -7.13 – 1.68 |
| 2030 | -3.96 | 15 | -10 | -9.8 – 1.88 |
| 2035 | -7.04 | 15 | -10 | -10 – 1.89 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed459.8bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 457.1bn | 497.7bn | 416.5bn | 442.9bn – 471.3bn |
| 2028 | 451.4bn | 521.8bn | 381.1bn | 418bn – 484.8bn |
| 2030 | 445.8bn | 536.6bn | 354.9bn | 395.2bn – 496.4bn |
| 2035 | 431.6bn | 560.1bn | 303.2bn | 342.1bn – 521.2bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed15.59(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 17.92 | 21.93 | 13.92 | 17.02 – 18.82 |
| 2028 | 20.69 | 27.63 | 13.75 | 18.64 – 22.75 |
| 2030 | 22.05 | 31.01 | 13.09 | 18.91 – 25.18 |
| 2035 | 23.13 | 35.8 | 10.46 | 17.49 – 28.77 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed505.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 507.6bn | 554.3bn | 460.9bn | 491.8bn – 523.3bn |
| 2028 | 514.9bn | 595.8bn | 434bn | 476.8bn – 553bn |
| 2030 | 522.2bn | 626.6bn | 417.8bn | 462.9bn – 581.5bn |
| 2035 | 540.4bn | 688.1bn | 392.8bn | 428.3bn – 652.5bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.04(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.07 | 2.87 | 1.26 | 1.91 – 2.22 |
| 2028 | 0.12 | 1.52 | 0 | 0 – 0.38 |
| 2030 | 0 | 1.8 | 0 | 0 – 0.36 |
| 2035 | 0 | 2.54 | 0 | 0 – 0.55 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/SAU · API docs
