Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Saudi Arabia: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 24/100); the economy is in expansion; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 5.89 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.52, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.56) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-4% skill vs naive; realized ±9.1868 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Saudi Arabia: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-3.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -3.45 | 9.53 | -16.43 | -6.15 – -0.74 |
| 2028 | -5.14 | 17.34 | -27.62 | -9.97 – -0.3 |
| 2030 | -6.83 | 22.19 | -30 | -13.3 – -0.36 |
| 2035 | -11.06 | 29.98 | -30 | -21.21 – -0.92 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed29.74(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 29.43 | 40.1 | 20.18 | 27.43 – 31.42 |
| 2028 | 28.79 | 47.28 | 12.77 | 24.77 – 32.82 |
| 2030 | 28.16 | 52.03 | 7.48 | 22.5 – 33.82 |
| 2035 | 26.58 | 60.33 | 0 | 17.5 – 35.65 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.3T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.3T | 1.6T | 1.1T | 1.3T – 1.4T |
| 2028 | 1.4T | 1.8T | 989.6bn | 1.3T – 1.5T |
| 2030 | 1.5T | 2T | 952.8bn | 1.3T – 1.6T |
| 2035 | 1.6T | 2.5T | 936.1bn | 1.3T – 2T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.5(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.89 | 12 | -7.29 | 3.26 – 8.51 |
| 2028 | 8.74 | 12 | -10 | 3.94 – 12 |
| 2030 | 11.6 | 12 | -10 | 5.01 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 2.07 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed34.5k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 34.2k | 43.3k | 26.3k | 32.6k – 35.9k |
| 2028 | 33.8k | 49.6k | 20.2k | 30.3k – 37.3k |
| 2030 | 33.5k | 53.8k | 15.8k | 28.4k – 38.6k |
| 2035 | 32.5k | 61.3k | 7.6k | 23.9k – 41.2k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed35.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 33.47 | 41 | 24.79 | 31.78 – 35.17 |
| 2028 | 36.82 | 49.85 | 21.78 | 33.05 – 40.59 |
| 2030 | 40.17 | 56.99 | 20.76 | 34.37 – 45.97 |
| 2035 | 48.54 | 72.33 | 21.09 | 37.11 – 59.97 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.17(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 28.73 | 32.55 | 24.91 | 27.69 – 29.78 |
| 2028 | 29.86 | 36.47 | 23.24 | 27.41 – 32.3 |
| 2030 | 30.98 | 39.52 | 22.43 | 27.19 – 34.76 |
| 2035 | 33.78 | 45.86 | 21.7 | 26.53 – 41.04 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.04(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.34 | 3.39 | 1.23 | 2.08 – 2.61 |
| 2028 | 3.09 | 4.9 | 1.16 | 2.54 – 3.64 |
| 2030 | 3.84 | 6.17 | 1.34 | 3.02 – 4.66 |
| 2035 | 5.71 | 9.01 | 2.18 | 4.07 – 7.36 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed30.11(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 31.52 | 34.73 | 28.74 | 30.55 – 32.5 |
| 2028 | 34.95 | 40.51 | 30.13 | 32.37 – 37.54 |
| 2030 | 38.38 | 45.56 | 32.16 | 34.02 – 42.74 |
| 2035 | 46.95 | 57.11 | 38.15 | 37.21 – 56.69 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed37m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 36.6m | 38.5m | 34.9m | 35.5m – 37.8m |
| 2028 | 38.5m | 41.7m | 35.4m | 35.6m – 41.3m |
| 2030 | 40.3m | 44.5m | 36.4m | 35.7m – 44.9m |
| 2035 | 44.9m | 50.9m | 39.3m | 35.6m – 54.2m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-0.82(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -1.49 | 15 | -10 | -3.98 – 1 |
| 2028 | -2.72 | 15 | -10 | -7.13 – 1.68 |
| 2030 | -3.96 | 15 | -10 | -9.8 – 1.88 |
| 2035 | -7.04 | 15 | -10 | -10 – 1.89 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed459.8bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 457.1bn | 497.7bn | 416.5bn | 442.9bn – 471.3bn |
| 2028 | 451.4bn | 521.8bn | 381.1bn | 418bn – 484.8bn |
| 2030 | 445.8bn | 536.6bn | 354.9bn | 395.2bn – 496.4bn |
| 2035 | 431.6bn | 560.1bn | 303.2bn | 342.1bn – 521.2bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed15.59(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 17.92 | 21.93 | 13.92 | 17.02 – 18.82 |
| 2028 | 20.69 | 27.63 | 13.75 | 18.64 – 22.75 |
| 2030 | 22.05 | 31.01 | 13.09 | 18.91 – 25.18 |
| 2035 | 23.13 | 35.8 | 10.46 | 17.49 – 28.77 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed505.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 507.6bn | 554.3bn | 460.9bn | 491.8bn – 523.3bn |
| 2028 | 514.9bn | 595.8bn | 434bn | 476.8bn – 553bn |
| 2030 | 522.2bn | 626.6bn | 417.8bn | 462.9bn – 581.5bn |
| 2035 | 540.4bn | 688.1bn | 392.8bn | 428.3bn – 652.5bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.04(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.07 | 2.87 | 1.26 | 1.91 – 2.22 |
| 2028 | 0.12 | 1.52 | 0 | 0 – 0.38 |
| 2030 | 0 | 1.8 | 0 | 0 – 0.36 |
| 2035 | 0 | 2.54 | 0 | 0 – 0.55 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/SAU · API docs
