Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Sudan: macro conditions look stressed (pressure 79/100); the economy is in slowdown; 3 turning-point signals flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 5.24 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as stressed (sentiment -0.58, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: cautious (projected sentiment -0.30) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2017-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2017-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2017-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: weak track record (+8% skill vs naive; realized ±12.6686 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Sudan: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2018, 2020, 2022, 2023, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2032, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-4.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -2.86 | 6.95 | -12.67 | -4.91 – -0.82 |
| 2029 | 0.41 | 17.4 | -16.58 | -3.1 – 3.93 |
| 2031 | 3.68 | 25.62 | -18.25 | -1.09 – 8.46 |
| 2036 | 11.87 | 30 | -19.15 | 3.64 – 20.1 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.1(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0 | 3.06 | 0 | 0 – 0.45 |
| 2028 | 0 | 5.29 | 0 | 0 – 0.8 |
| 2030 | 0 | 6.84 | 0 | 0 – 1.06 |
| 2035 | 0 | 9.67 | 0 | 0 – 1.54 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed60.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 47.4bn | 71.8bn | 26.3bn | 43.7bn – 51.1bn |
| 2029 | 53.1bn | 95.4bn | 16.5bn | 45.5bn – 60.7bn |
| 2031 | 58.8bn | 113.4bn | 11.5bn | 47.6bn – 70bn |
| 2036 | 73.1bn | 150.3bn | 6.2bn | 52.2bn – 94bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.06(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.24 | 12 | -10 | -0.58 – 11.07 |
| 2029 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 1.48 – 12 |
| 2031 | 12 | 12 | -10 | -1.8 – 12 |
| 2036 | 12 | 12 | -10 | -8.07 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.2k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 908.38 | 1.4k | 493.58 | 836.87 – 979.89 |
| 2029 | 998.23 | 1.8k | 279.78 | 851.63 – 1.1k |
| 2031 | 1.1k | 2.2k | 160.56 | 873.62 – 1.3k |
| 2036 | 1.3k | 2.8k | 0.99 | 922.48 – 1.7k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed169.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 170.29 | 268.79 | 56.63 | 152.41 – 188.17 |
| 2029 | 172.67 | 300 | 0 | 138.13 – 207.21 |
| 2031 | 175.05 | 300 | 0 | 127.16 – 222.94 |
| 2036 | 181 | 300 | 0 | 104.12 – 257.89 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.28(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0 | 9.43 | 0 | 0 – 1.46 |
| 2028 | 0 | 16.34 | 0 | 0 – 2.55 |
| 2030 | 0 | 21.09 | 0 | 0 – 3.31 |
| 2035 | 0 | 29.83 | 0 | 0 – 4.73 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed138.81(2022)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 50 | 50 | -5 | 1.62 – 50 |
| 2029 | 35.72 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 50 |
| 2031 | 0.58 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 50 |
| 2036 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 50 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.73(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.12 | 7.7 | 0 | 0 – 1.22 |
| 2028 | 0 | 13.12 | 0 | 0 – 1.92 |
| 2030 | 0 | 16.94 | 0 | 0 – 2.5 |
| 2035 | 0 | 23.96 | 0 | 0 – 3.58 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed51.7m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 51.4m | 53.8m | 49.1m | 49.8m – 53m |
| 2029 | 51.5m | 53.9m | 49.2m | 47.6m – 55.3m |
| 2031 | 51.5m | 54m | 49.3m | 45.7m – 57.4m |
| 2036 | 51.7m | 54.5m | 49.1m | 41m – 62.4m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-5.68(2022)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | -6.21 | -2.29 | -9.16 | -6.8 – -5.62 |
| 2025 | -7.6 | -0.8 | -10 | -8.81 – -6.38 |
| 2027 | -8.98 | -0.21 | -10 | -10 – -7.16 |
| 2032 | -10 | 2.41 | -10 | -10 – -6.85 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed177.9m(2017)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 154.2m | 731.3m | 0 | 63.4m – 245m |
| 2020 | 93.2m | 1.1bn | 0 | 0 – 250.7m |
| 2022 | 32.3m | 1.3bn | 0 | 0 – 232.4m |
| 2027 | 0 | 1.8bn | 0 | 0 – 279.3m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.19(2017)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 0.25 | 0.64 | 0 | 0.17 – 0.33 |
| 2020 | 0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0.17 – 0.48 |
| 2022 | 0.36 | 1.24 | 0 | 0.15 – 0.58 |
| 2027 | 0.39 | 1.63 | 0 | 0.04 – 0.74 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed177.9m(2017)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 154.2m | 731.3m | 0 | 63.4m – 245m |
| 2020 | 93.2m | 1.1bn | 0 | 0 – 250.7m |
| 2022 | 32.3m | 1.3bn | 0 | 0 – 232.4m |
| 2027 | 0 | 1.8bn | 0 | 0 – 279.3m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.53(2022)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 40 | 40 | 8.53 | 34.54 – 40 |
| 2029 | 40 | 40 | 0 | 29.74 – 40 |
| 2031 | 40 | 40 | 0 | 26.03 – 40 |
| 2036 | 40 | 40 | 0 | 18.37 – 40 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/SDN · API docs
