Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Senegal: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 52/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 16 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 0.92 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment -0.04, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment -0.08) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-7% skill vs naive; realized ±4.1534 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Senegal: forward projections across 12 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-6.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -5.65 | 4.33 | -15.64 | -7.78 – -3.53 |
| 2029 | -4.56 | 12.73 | -21.85 | -8.31 – -0.81 |
| 2031 | -3.47 | 18.85 | -25.79 | -8.3 – 1.36 |
| 2036 | -0.74 | 30 | -30 | -7.34 – 5.87 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed32.49(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 33.42 | 41.23 | 26.65 | 31.77 – 35.07 |
| 2028 | 35.29 | 48.82 | 23.57 | 31.67 – 38.92 |
| 2030 | 37.16 | 54.63 | 22.02 | 31.69 – 42.63 |
| 2035 | 41.84 | 66.54 | 20.43 | 31.62 – 52.06 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed37bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 42.9bn | 45.9bn | 40.2bn | 41.5bn – 44.2bn |
| 2029 | 48.9bn | 54.1bn | 44.3bn | 45.2bn – 52.5bn |
| 2031 | 54.8bn | 61.7bn | 48.9bn | 48.6bn – 61.1bn |
| 2036 | 69.8bn | 79.5bn | 61.5bn | 55.3bn – 84.3bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.68(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 0.92 | 5.95 | -3.44 | 0.06 – 1.77 |
| 2029 | -1.96 | 6.74 | -9.51 | -3.51 – -0.42 |
| 2031 | -4.85 | 6.39 | -10 | -7.11 – -2.58 |
| 2036 | -10 | 5.9 | -10 | -10 – -5.75 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.1k | 2.3k | 2k | 2.1k – 2.2k |
| 2029 | 2.4k | 2.6k | 2.1k | 2.2k – 2.5k |
| 2031 | 2.6k | 2.9k | 2.3k | 2.3k – 2.9k |
| 2036 | 3.1k | 3.6k | 2.7k | 2.5k – 3.8k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed132.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 141.19 | 153.53 | 126.95 | 136.81 – 145.57 |
| 2029 | 158.97 | 180.35 | 134.31 | 147.21 – 170.74 |
| 2031 | 176.76 | 204.35 | 144.92 | 156.69 – 196.83 |
| 2036 | 221.22 | 260.24 | 176.19 | 175.33 – 267.1 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed38.58(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 39.19 | 48.58 | 29.8 | 37.12 – 41.25 |
| 2028 | 40.4 | 56.67 | 24.14 | 35.98 – 44.83 |
| 2030 | 41.62 | 62.62 | 20.63 | 35.08 – 48.16 |
| 2035 | 44.66 | 74.35 | 14.97 | 32.97 – 56.35 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.46(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.01 | 12.02 | -5 | 0.96 – 5.05 |
| 2029 | 4.47 | 20.07 | -5 | 0.79 – 8.14 |
| 2031 | 5.92 | 26.07 | -5 | 0.98 – 10.86 |
| 2036 | 9.57 | 38.06 | -5 | 1.72 – 17.41 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.72(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 27.82 | 32.79 | 23.51 | 26.66 – 28.97 |
| 2028 | 25.64 | 34.26 | 18.17 | 23.18 – 28.1 |
| 2030 | 23.46 | 34.58 | 13.82 | 19.99 – 26.92 |
| 2035 | 18.01 | 33.74 | 4.37 | 12.88 – 23.14 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed18.9m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 19.6m | 20.5m | 18.8m | 19m – 20.2m |
| 2029 | 20.5m | 21.4m | 19.6m | 19m – 22m |
| 2031 | 21.3m | 22.3m | 20.4m | 18.9m – 23.7m |
| 2036 | 23.4m | 24.5m | 22.4m | 18.6m – 28.3m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.13(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.23 | 7.97 | 1.43 | 3.7 – 4.77 |
| 2028 | 6.82 | 13.29 | 1.97 | 5.69 – 7.96 |
| 2030 | 9.42 | 15 | 3.15 | 7.62 – 11.21 |
| 2035 | 15 | 15 | 6.14 | 11.12 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.74(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.58 | 3.03 | 2.13 | 2.47 – 2.69 |
| 2028 | 2.27 | 3.05 | 1.48 | 2.04 – 2.49 |
| 2030 | 1.95 | 2.97 | 0.94 | 1.64 – 2.26 |
| 2035 | 1.17 | 2.6 | 0 | 0.76 – 1.58 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/SEN · API docs
