Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Senegal: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 33/100); the economy is in expansion; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 16 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 7.62 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.34, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.22) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-7% skill vs naive; realized ±5.4216 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Senegal: forward projections across 12 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-6.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -5.91 | 4.06 | -15.88 | -8.04 – -3.78 |
| 2028 | -6.53 | 10.73 | -23.79 | -10.37 – -2.7 |
| 2030 | -7.15 | 15.13 | -29.44 | -12.27 – -2.03 |
| 2035 | -8.71 | 22.81 | -30 | -16.53 – -0.88 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed32.49(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 33.42 | 41.23 | 26.65 | 31.77 – 35.07 |
| 2028 | 35.29 | 48.82 | 23.57 | 31.67 – 38.92 |
| 2030 | 37.16 | 54.63 | 22.02 | 31.69 – 42.63 |
| 2035 | 41.84 | 66.54 | 20.43 | 31.62 – 52.06 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed37bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 39bn | 42.3bn | 36.2bn | 37.8bn – 40.2bn |
| 2028 | 44bn | 49.7bn | 39.1bn | 40.8bn – 47.3bn |
| 2030 | 49bn | 56.3bn | 42.7bn | 43.5bn – 54.6bn |
| 2035 | 61.6bn | 71.9bn | 52.6bn | 48.8bn – 74.4bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.68(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.62 | 12 | 2.9 | 6.59 – 8.65 |
| 2028 | 9.71 | 12 | 1.53 | 7.67 – 11.75 |
| 2030 | 11.79 | 12 | 1.23 | 8.82 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -2.94 | 7.21 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2k | 2.2k | 1.9k | 2k – 2.1k |
| 2028 | 2.2k | 2.5k | 2k | 2.1k – 2.4k |
| 2030 | 2.4k | 2.8k | 2.1k | 2.1k – 2.7k |
| 2035 | 2.9k | 3.5k | 2.4k | 2.3k – 3.5k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed132.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 139.93 | 152.03 | 125.98 | 135.6 – 144.27 |
| 2028 | 159.4 | 180.36 | 135.22 | 147.61 – 171.19 |
| 2030 | 178.87 | 205.92 | 147.66 | 158.56 – 199.18 |
| 2035 | 227.54 | 265.8 | 183.4 | 180.34 – 274.74 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed38.58(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 39.19 | 48.58 | 29.8 | 37.12 – 41.25 |
| 2028 | 40.4 | 56.67 | 24.14 | 35.98 – 44.83 |
| 2030 | 41.62 | 62.62 | 20.63 | 35.08 – 48.16 |
| 2035 | 44.66 | 74.35 | 14.97 | 32.97 – 56.35 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.46(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.22 | 11.18 | -5 | 0.2 – 4.25 |
| 2028 | 3.14 | 18.65 | -5 | -0.45 – 6.73 |
| 2030 | 4.06 | 24.08 | -5 | -0.71 – 8.82 |
| 2035 | 6.35 | 34.67 | -5 | -0.95 – 13.64 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.72(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 27.82 | 32.79 | 23.51 | 26.66 – 28.97 |
| 2028 | 25.64 | 34.26 | 18.17 | 23.18 – 28.1 |
| 2030 | 23.46 | 34.58 | 13.82 | 19.99 – 26.92 |
| 2035 | 18.01 | 33.74 | 4.37 | 12.88 – 23.14 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed18.9m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18.8m | 19.7m | 18m | 18.2m – 19.4m |
| 2028 | 19.3m | 20.2m | 18.4m | 17.9m – 20.7m |
| 2030 | 19.8m | 20.7m | 18.9m | 17.5m – 22m |
| 2035 | 20.9m | 21.9m | 20m | 16.6m – 25.3m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.13(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.23 | 7.97 | 1.43 | 3.7 – 4.77 |
| 2028 | 6.82 | 13.29 | 1.97 | 5.69 – 7.96 |
| 2030 | 9.42 | 15 | 3.15 | 7.62 – 11.21 |
| 2035 | 15 | 15 | 6.14 | 11.12 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.74(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.58 | 3.03 | 2.13 | 2.47 – 2.69 |
| 2028 | 2.27 | 3.05 | 1.48 | 2.04 – 2.49 |
| 2030 | 1.95 | 2.97 | 0.94 | 1.64 – 2.26 |
| 2035 | 1.17 | 2.6 | 0 | 0.76 – 1.58 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/SEN · API docs
