Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
SEQ: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 35/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 7 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 4.39 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.30, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: supportive (projected sentiment +0.40) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-6% skill vs naive) · a track record, not a guarantee
SEQ: forward projections across 7 macro indicators, horizons 2027, 2029, 2031, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed2.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.41 | 4.27 | 0.54 | 1.99 – 2.83 |
| 2029 | 2.42 | 5.65 | -0.81 | 1.65 – 3.2 |
| 2031 | 2.44 | 6.6 | -1.73 | 1.39 – 3.48 |
| 2036 | 2.47 | 8.37 | -3.42 | 0.87 – 4.07 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.5T(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.7T | 5T | 4.4T | 4.5T – 4.8T |
| 2029 | 5.1T | 5.7T | 4.6T | 4.7T – 5.5T |
| 2031 | 5.6T | 6.3T | 4.9T | 4.9T – 6.2T |
| 2036 | 6.7T | 7.7T | 5.8T | 5.3T – 8T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.39 | 7.2 | 1.95 | 3.85 – 4.93 |
| 2029 | 4.15 | 9.02 | -0.07 | 3.14 – 5.16 |
| 2031 | 3.91 | 10.19 | -1.54 | 2.55 – 5.27 |
| 2036 | 3.31 | 12 | -4.4 | 1.29 – 5.32 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.4k(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 6.6k | 7.1k | 6.2k | 6.4k – 6.9k |
| 2029 | 7.2k | 8k | 6.5k | 6.6k – 7.7k |
| 2031 | 7.7k | 8.8k | 6.8k | 6.8k – 8.6k |
| 2036 | 9k | 10.5k | 7.7k | 7.2k – 10.9k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed67.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 70.56 | 75.73 | 64.6 | 68.37 – 72.75 |
| 2029 | 75.88 | 84.83 | 65.55 | 70.26 – 81.49 |
| 2031 | 81.2 | 92.75 | 67.87 | 71.98 – 90.42 |
| 2036 | 94.49 | 110.83 | 75.64 | 74.89 – 114.1 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.89 | 7.22 | 0.31 | 3.08 – 4.69 |
| 2029 | 5.57 | 11.34 | -0.62 | 4.02 – 7.11 |
| 2031 | 7.25 | 14.7 | -0.74 | 5.01 – 9.48 |
| 2036 | 11.45 | 21.99 | 0.15 | 7.28 – 15.61 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed700.5m(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 698.8m | 731.9m | 668.2m | 677.2m – 720.5m |
| 2029 | 705.2m | 738.5m | 674.3m | 653m – 757.4m |
| 2031 | 711.6m | 745.2m | 680.3m | 630.8m – 792.4m |
| 2036 | 727.4m | 761.8m | 695.5m | 576.5m – 878.3m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/SEQ · API docs
