Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Singapore: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 38/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 2.72 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.24, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment +0.24) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-3% skill vs naive; realized ±6.6979 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Singapore: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed16.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 16.53 | 19.35 | 13.7 | 15.69 – 17.37 |
| 2029 | 16.38 | 21.27 | 11.49 | 14.6 – 18.17 |
| 2031 | 16.24 | 22.55 | 9.92 | 13.65 – 18.82 |
| 2036 | 15.87 | 24.81 | 6.94 | 11.51 – 20.24 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed177.85(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 150 | 150 | 143.15 | 145.35 – 150 |
| 2028 | 150 | 150 | 138.13 | 138.9 – 150 |
| 2030 | 150 | 150 | 134.68 | 132.97 – 150 |
| 2035 | 150 | 150 | 128.34 | 118.88 – 150 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed603.9bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 696.1bn | 777.6bn | 625.5bn | 674.5bn – 717.7bn |
| 2029 | 787.9bn | 929bn | 665.5bn | 729.6bn – 846.1bn |
| 2031 | 879.6bn | 1.1T | 721.7bn | 779.7bn – 979.5bn |
| 2036 | 1.1T | 1.4T | 885.6bn | 879bn – 1.3T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.03(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.72 | 9.55 | -3.2 | 1.54 – 3.91 |
| 2029 | 1.01 | 12 | -9.24 | -1.01 – 3.03 |
| 2031 | -0.7 | 12 | -10 | -3.33 – 1.92 |
| 2036 | -4.99 | 12 | -10 | -9.38 – -0.59 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed98.8k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 112.9k | 129.4k | 98.6k | 109.1k – 116.7k |
| 2029 | 125.9k | 154.6k | 101.1k | 116.5k – 135.4k |
| 2031 | 139k | 175.9k | 106.9k | 123.2k – 154.8k |
| 2036 | 171.6k | 223.8k | 126.3k | 136k – 207.2k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed171.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 179.72 | 197.2 | 159.55 | 174.15 – 185.3 |
| 2029 | 195.37 | 225.65 | 160.44 | 180.92 – 209.82 |
| 2031 | 211.02 | 250.1 | 165.92 | 187.06 – 234.98 |
| 2036 | 250.14 | 300 | 186.36 | 198.25 – 300 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed142.45(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 141.23 | 148.15 | 134.31 | 136.85 – 145.61 |
| 2028 | 138.78 | 148.9 | 128.66 | 128.51 – 149.04 |
| 2030 | 136.33 | 149.39 | 123.26 | 120.85 – 150 |
| 2035 | 130.2 | 148.67 | 111.72 | 103.19 – 150 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.9(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.06 | 7.72 | -1.94 | 1.98 – 4.14 |
| 2029 | 5.02 | 13.09 | -3.64 | 2.98 – 7.05 |
| 2031 | 6.97 | 17.4 | -4.2 | 4.1 – 9.84 |
| 2036 | 11.86 | 26.6 | -3.93 | 6.7 – 17.03 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.08(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 22.25 | 24.97 | 19.89 | 21.5 – 22.99 |
| 2028 | 22.63 | 27.34 | 18.54 | 20.87 – 24.39 |
| 2030 | 23.01 | 29.09 | 17.73 | 20.3 – 25.72 |
| 2035 | 23.95 | 32.56 | 16.49 | 18.89 – 29.02 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.1m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 6.1m | 6.4m | 5.8m | 5.9m – 6.3m |
| 2029 | 6.1m | 6.5m | 5.7m | 5.6m – 6.5m |
| 2031 | 6.1m | 6.7m | 5.6m | 5.4m – 6.8m |
| 2036 | 6.1m | 6.9m | 5.4m | 4.9m – 7.4m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.14(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.88 | 15 | -9.56 | 1.58 – 6.19 |
| 2028 | 5.56 | 15 | -10 | 1.42 – 9.71 |
| 2030 | 7.24 | 15 | -10 | 1.66 – 12.83 |
| 2035 | 11.44 | 15 | -10 | 2.53 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed404.9bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 428.7bn | 556.2bn | 301.3bn | 402.3bn – 455.1bn |
| 2028 | 483.7bn | 704.4bn | 262.9bn | 426.6bn – 540.7bn |
| 2030 | 538.6bn | 823.6bn | 253.6bn | 451.9bn – 625.3bn |
| 2035 | 675.9bn | 1.1T | 272.9bn | 506.1bn – 845.8bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.39(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.56 | 6.6 | 2.51 | 4.17 – 4.94 |
| 2028 | 4.76 | 8.3 | 1.22 | 3.99 – 5.53 |
| 2030 | 4.86 | 9.43 | 0.29 | 3.77 – 5.95 |
| 2035 | 4.94 | 11.41 | 0 | 3.16 – 6.72 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed432.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 459.6bn | 589.7bn | 329.5bn | 432.3bn – 486.9bn |
| 2028 | 523.7bn | 749.1bn | 298.4bn | 464.1bn – 583.4bn |
| 2030 | 587.9bn | 878.8bn | 296.9bn | 496.3bn – 679.4bn |
| 2035 | 748.2bn | 1.2T | 336.8bn | 565.5bn – 930.9bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.82(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.54 | 2.37 | 0.7 | 1.38 – 1.69 |
| 2029 | 0.61 | 2.05 | 0 | 0.34 – 0.88 |
| 2031 | 0 | 1.86 | 0 | 0 – 0.37 |
| 2036 | 0 | 2.63 | 0 | 0 – 0.56 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-05 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/SGP · API docs
