Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Singapore: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 30/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 6.35 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.40, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.46) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-4% skill vs naive; realized ±1.3451 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Singapore: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed16.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16.83 | 19.66 | 14 | 15.99 – 17.68 |
| 2028 | 17.1 | 22 | 12.2 | 15.28 – 18.92 |
| 2030 | 17.37 | 23.7 | 11.04 | 14.69 – 20.05 |
| 2035 | 18.03 | 26.98 | 9.08 | 13.32 – 22.75 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed177.85(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 150 | 150 | 143.15 | 145.35 – 150 |
| 2028 | 150 | 150 | 138.13 | 138.9 – 150 |
| 2030 | 150 | 150 | 134.68 | 132.97 – 150 |
| 2035 | 150 | 150 | 128.34 | 118.88 – 150 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed603.9bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 630.4bn | 715.8bn | 556.4bn | 610.2bn – 650.7bn |
| 2028 | 699.7bn | 847.6bn | 571.6bn | 648bn – 751.5bn |
| 2030 | 769.1bn | 960bn | 603.6bn | 681.8bn – 856.4bn |
| 2035 | 942.4bn | 1.2T | 708.4bn | 746.9bn – 1.1T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.03(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.35 | 12 | -6.09 | 3.85 – 8.84 |
| 2028 | 9.13 | 12 | -10 | 4.55 – 12 |
| 2030 | 11.92 | 12 | -10 | 5.62 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 2.51 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed98.8k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 101.8k | 118.8k | 87k | 98.1k – 105.4k |
| 2028 | 109.9k | 139.3k | 84.4k | 101.1k – 118.7k |
| 2030 | 118k | 156k | 85.1k | 104.1k – 132k |
| 2035 | 138.4k | 192.1k | 91.8k | 109.7k – 167.1k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed166.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 173.72 | 191.63 | 153.05 | 168.18 – 179.26 |
| 2028 | 189.76 | 220.79 | 153.96 | 175.72 – 203.8 |
| 2030 | 205.8 | 245.85 | 159.58 | 182.43 – 229.17 |
| 2035 | 245.9 | 300 | 180.54 | 194.89 – 296.91 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed142.45(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 141.23 | 148.15 | 134.31 | 136.85 – 145.61 |
| 2028 | 138.78 | 148.9 | 128.66 | 128.51 – 149.04 |
| 2030 | 136.33 | 149.39 | 123.26 | 120.85 – 150 |
| 2035 | 130.2 | 148.67 | 111.72 | 103.19 – 150 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.9(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.53 | 5.53 | -4.83 | -0.6 – 1.65 |
| 2028 | -1.55 | 7.11 | -5 | -3.55 – 0.44 |
| 2030 | -3.64 | 7.55 | -5 | -5 – -0.86 |
| 2035 | -5 | 10.82 | -5 | -5 – -0.69 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.08(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 22.25 | 24.97 | 19.89 | 21.5 – 22.99 |
| 2028 | 22.63 | 27.34 | 18.54 | 20.87 – 24.39 |
| 2030 | 23.01 | 29.09 | 17.73 | 20.3 – 25.72 |
| 2035 | 23.95 | 32.56 | 16.49 | 18.89 – 29.02 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.1m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.1m | 6.4m | 5.8m | 5.9m – 6.3m |
| 2028 | 6.1m | 6.6m | 5.7m | 5.7m – 6.6m |
| 2030 | 6.2m | 6.8m | 5.7m | 5.5m – 6.9m |
| 2035 | 6.4m | 7.2m | 5.7m | 5.1m – 7.8m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.14(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.88 | 15 | -9.56 | 1.58 – 6.19 |
| 2028 | 5.56 | 15 | -10 | 1.42 – 9.71 |
| 2030 | 7.24 | 15 | -10 | 1.66 – 12.83 |
| 2035 | 11.44 | 15 | -10 | 2.53 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed404.9bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 428.7bn | 556.2bn | 301.3bn | 402.3bn – 455.1bn |
| 2028 | 483.7bn | 704.4bn | 262.9bn | 426.6bn – 540.7bn |
| 2030 | 538.6bn | 823.6bn | 253.6bn | 451.9bn – 625.3bn |
| 2035 | 675.9bn | 1.1T | 272.9bn | 506.1bn – 845.8bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.39(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.56 | 6.6 | 2.51 | 4.17 – 4.94 |
| 2028 | 4.76 | 8.3 | 1.22 | 3.99 – 5.53 |
| 2030 | 4.86 | 9.43 | 0.29 | 3.77 – 5.95 |
| 2035 | 4.94 | 11.41 | 0 | 3.16 – 6.72 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed432.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 459.6bn | 589.7bn | 329.5bn | 432.3bn – 486.9bn |
| 2028 | 523.7bn | 749.1bn | 298.4bn | 464.1bn – 583.4bn |
| 2030 | 587.9bn | 878.8bn | 296.9bn | 496.3bn – 679.4bn |
| 2035 | 748.2bn | 1.2T | 336.8bn | 565.5bn – 930.9bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.82(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.47 | 3.57 | 1.36 | 2.26 – 2.68 |
| 2028 | 1.77 | 3.68 | 0 | 1.39 – 2.14 |
| 2030 | 1.07 | 3.54 | 0 | 0.6 – 1.53 |
| 2035 | 0 | 3.5 | 0 | 0 – 0.7 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/SGP · API docs
