Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Solomon Islands: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 20/100); the economy is in expansion; 17 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 4.23 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.60, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.56) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2007-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-1% skill vs naive; realized ±1.4264 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Solomon Islands: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-4.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.98 | 11.42 | -13.38 | -3.53 – 1.56 |
| 2028 | -0.95 | 20.53 | -22.42 | -5.38 – 3.48 |
| 2030 | -0.91 | 26.81 | -28.64 | -6.65 – 4.83 |
| 2035 | -0.82 | 30 | -30 | -8.98 – 7.34 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed40.57(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 40.06 | 51.44 | 30.2 | 37.8 – 42.33 |
| 2027 | 39.05 | 58.75 | 21.97 | 34.36 – 43.74 |
| 2029 | 38.03 | 63.47 | 15.99 | 31.36 – 44.71 |
| 2034 | 35.5 | 71.46 | 4.33 | 24.68 – 46.32 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.7bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.8bn | 2bn | 1.6bn | 1.7bn – 1.9bn |
| 2028 | 1.9bn | 2.2bn | 1.7bn | 1.8bn – 2.1bn |
| 2030 | 2bn | 2.4bn | 1.7bn | 1.8bn – 2.3bn |
| 2035 | 2.3bn | 2.9bn | 1.8bn | 1.8bn – 2.8bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.62(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.23 | 9.83 | -0.63 | 3.23 – 5.23 |
| 2028 | 5.8 | 12 | -2.61 | 3.9 – 7.69 |
| 2030 | 7.36 | 12 | -3.49 | 4.69 – 10.04 |
| 2035 | 11.29 | 12 | -4.06 | 6.53 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.1k | 2.3k | 1.9k | 2k – 2.2k |
| 2028 | 2.1k | 2.5k | 1.8k | 2k – 2.3k |
| 2030 | 2.2k | 2.7k | 1.8k | 1.9k – 2.4k |
| 2035 | 2.3k | 3k | 1.7k | 1.8k – 2.8k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed29.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 31.23 | 35.86 | 25.88 | 30.02 – 32.44 |
| 2028 | 36.28 | 44.3 | 27.03 | 33.31 – 39.26 |
| 2030 | 41.34 | 51.69 | 29.39 | 36.44 – 46.24 |
| 2035 | 53.97 | 68.62 | 37.08 | 42.78 – 65.17 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed70.78(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 74.27 | 92.06 | 56.47 | 70.36 – 78.18 |
| 2027 | 81.23 | 112.06 | 50.41 | 72.62 – 89.85 |
| 2029 | 88.2 | 127.99 | 48.41 | 75.05 – 101.35 |
| 2034 | 105.62 | 150 | 49.34 | 80.1 – 131.13 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.36(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.07 | 9.14 | -3.43 | 1.68 – 4.47 |
| 2028 | 1.73 | 12.25 | -5 | -0.68 – 4.15 |
| 2030 | 0.39 | 13.96 | -5 | -2.69 – 3.48 |
| 2035 | -2.96 | 16.23 | -5 | -5 – 1.77 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed19.46(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 18.9 | 24.65 | 13.92 | 17.78 – 20.03 |
| 2027 | 17.68 | 27.63 | 9.06 | 15.41 – 19.95 |
| 2029 | 16.47 | 29.31 | 5.33 | 13.31 – 19.62 |
| 2034 | 13.42 | 31.58 | 0 | 8.68 – 18.16 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed838.6k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 833.6k | 873k | 797k | 807.8k – 859.5k |
| 2028 | 855k | 895.4k | 817.5k | 791.8k – 918.3k |
| 2030 | 876.4k | 917.8k | 838k | 776.9k – 975.9k |
| 2035 | 929.9k | 973.8k | 889.1k | 737k – 1.1m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.52(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.61 | 7.58 | -2.87 | 0.84 – 2.38 |
| 2028 | 4.15 | 14.5 | -3.61 | 2.66 – 5.64 |
| 2030 | 6.69 | 15 | -3.33 | 4.48 – 8.89 |
| 2035 | 13.04 | 15 | -1.13 | 8.59 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed680.6m(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 687.2m | 793.7m | 580.7m | 659.9m – 714.5m |
| 2027 | 706.7m | 891.2m | 522.2m | 644.6m – 768.9m |
| 2029 | 726.3m | 964.5m | 488.1m | 631.8m – 820.9m |
| 2034 | 775.3m | 1.1bn | 438.4m | 599.7m – 950.9m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.9(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 9.18 | 13.34 | 5.02 | 8.4 – 9.96 |
| 2027 | 9.51 | 16.72 | 2.3 | 7.95 – 11.07 |
| 2029 | 9.67 | 18.98 | 0.37 | 7.47 – 11.87 |
| 2034 | 9.8 | 22.96 | 0 | 6.22 – 13.39 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed685.8m(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 690.2m | 774.8m | 605.6m | 666.2m – 714.2m |
| 2027 | 704m | 850.5m | 557.5m | 647.8m – 760.2m |
| 2029 | 717.7m | 906.9m | 528.6m | 631.4m – 804.1m |
| 2034 | 752.2m | 1bn | 484.7m | 590.9m – 913.5m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.43(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.56 | 2.03 | 1.08 | 1.46 – 1.66 |
| 2028 | 1.81 | 2.64 | 0.99 | 1.6 – 2.03 |
| 2030 | 2.07 | 3.13 | 1.01 | 1.74 – 2.4 |
| 2035 | 2.71 | 4.21 | 1.21 | 2.05 – 3.37 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/SLB · API docs
