Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
El Salvador: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 27/100); the economy is in expansion; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 4.36 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.46, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.46) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-8% skill vs naive; realized ±0.1447 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
El Salvador: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-4.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -3.79 | 2.51 | -10.09 | -5.13 – -2.44 |
| 2028 | -4.36 | 6.54 | -15.27 | -6.8 – -1.93 |
| 2030 | -4.94 | 9.14 | -19.02 | -8.21 – -1.67 |
| 2035 | -6.38 | 13.53 | -26.3 | -11.47 – -1.3 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed32.05(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 32.66 | 40.16 | 26.17 | 31.07 – 34.26 |
| 2028 | 33.89 | 46.88 | 22.64 | 30.41 – 37.38 |
| 2030 | 35.13 | 51.89 | 20.6 | 29.92 – 40.33 |
| 2035 | 38.21 | 61.91 | 17.67 | 28.71 – 47.71 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed36.7bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 38bn | 41.6bn | 34.8bn | 36.8bn – 39.1bn |
| 2028 | 41.2bn | 47.6bn | 35.7bn | 38.2bn – 44.3bn |
| 2030 | 44.5bn | 52.7bn | 37.4bn | 39.4bn – 49.6bn |
| 2035 | 52.7bn | 64.2bn | 42.7bn | 41.7bn – 63.6bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.91(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.36 | 12 | -10 | 0.98 – 7.73 |
| 2028 | 5.38 | 12 | -10 | -0.61 – 11.37 |
| 2030 | 6.4 | 12 | -10 | -1.51 – 12 |
| 2035 | 8.97 | 12 | -10 | -2.93 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.8k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.9k | 6.5k | 5.4k | 5.8k – 6.1k |
| 2028 | 6.4k | 7.4k | 5.6k | 5.9k – 6.9k |
| 2030 | 6.9k | 8.2k | 5.8k | 6.1k – 7.7k |
| 2035 | 8.1k | 9.9k | 6.5k | 6.4k – 9.8k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed85(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 89 | 100.84 | 75.33 | 85.75 – 92.24 |
| 2028 | 91.79 | 112.31 | 68.11 | 84.22 – 99.35 |
| 2030 | 94.58 | 121.07 | 64.01 | 82.94 – 106.22 |
| 2035 | 101.56 | 139.02 | 58.33 | 79.54 – 123.57 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed56.11(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 57.67 | 67.62 | 47.73 | 55.23 – 60.12 |
| 2028 | 60.79 | 78.02 | 43.57 | 55.24 – 66.35 |
| 2030 | 63.91 | 86.15 | 41.67 | 55.39 – 72.43 |
| 2035 | 71.71 | 103.16 | 40.26 | 55.42 – 88 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.26(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.35 | 6.71 | -5 | -1.07 – 1.78 |
| 2028 | -0.48 | 10.53 | -5 | -2.97 – 2.01 |
| 2030 | -1.32 | 12.9 | -5 | -4.57 – 1.94 |
| 2035 | -3.4 | 16.71 | -5 | -5 – 1.6 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed27.18(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 28.29 | 31.75 | 25.29 | 27.34 – 29.24 |
| 2028 | 31.35 | 37.34 | 26.15 | 28.99 – 33.71 |
| 2030 | 34.41 | 42.15 | 27.7 | 30.5 – 38.32 |
| 2035 | 42.06 | 53 | 32.58 | 33.34 – 50.78 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.4m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.4m | 6.7m | 6.1m | 6.2m – 6.6m |
| 2028 | 6.4m | 6.7m | 6.1m | 5.9m – 6.9m |
| 2030 | 6.4m | 6.7m | 6.1m | 5.7m – 7.1m |
| 2035 | 6.5m | 6.8m | 6.2m | 5.1m – 7.8m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.61(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.3 | 12.56 | -3.65 | 2.09 – 4.51 |
| 2028 | 4.9 | 15 | -7.13 | 2.66 – 7.14 |
| 2030 | 6.51 | 15 | -9.02 | 3.4 – 9.62 |
| 2035 | 10.52 | 15 | -10 | 5.17 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.9bn | 6.5bn | 3.3bn | 4.6bn – 5.2bn |
| 2028 | 5.7bn | 8.4bn | 2.9bn | 5bn – 6.4bn |
| 2030 | 6.5bn | 10bn | 2.9bn | 5.4bn – 7.6bn |
| 2035 | 8.5bn | 13.5bn | 3.5bn | 6.4bn – 10.6bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.45(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.52 | 3.54 | 1.49 | 2.32 – 2.72 |
| 2028 | 2.6 | 4.38 | 0.83 | 2.21 – 3 |
| 2030 | 2.64 | 4.94 | 0.35 | 2.08 – 3.21 |
| 2035 | 2.68 | 5.92 | 0 | 1.75 – 3.6 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.8bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.2bn | 6.8bn | 3.6bn | 4.9bn – 5.5bn |
| 2028 | 6.1bn | 8.9bn | 3.2bn | 5.3bn – 6.8bn |
| 2030 | 6.9bn | 10.6bn | 3.3bn | 5.8bn – 8.1bn |
| 2035 | 9.1bn | 14.3bn | 4bn | 6.9bn – 11.4bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.3(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.97 | 4.12 | 1.82 | 2.74 – 3.19 |
| 2028 | 2.3 | 4.29 | 0.31 | 1.88 – 2.71 |
| 2030 | 1.63 | 4.2 | 0 | 1.1 – 2.15 |
| 2035 | 0 | 3.64 | 0 | 0 – 0.72 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/SLV · API docs
