Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
SMQ: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 42/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 6 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 2.04 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.16, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment +0.12) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-11% skill vs naive) · a track record, not a guarantee
SMQ: forward projections across 6 macro indicators, horizons 2027, 2029, 2031, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-1.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -1.16 | 0.5 | -2.83 | -1.52 – -0.81 |
| 2029 | -0.89 | 1.99 | -3.77 | -1.53 – -0.25 |
| 2031 | -0.62 | 3.1 | -4.33 | -1.45 – 0.22 |
| 2036 | 0.07 | 5.33 | -5.19 | -1.16 – 1.3 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.1T(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.4T | 6.2T | 4.7T | 5.2T – 5.5T |
| 2029 | 5.9T | 7.3T | 4.7T | 5.5T – 6.4T |
| 2031 | 6.5T | 8.3T | 5T | 5.8T – 7.3T |
| 2036 | 8T | 10.5T | 5.8T | 6.3T – 9.6T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.04 | 5.43 | -0.9 | 1.44 – 2.64 |
| 2029 | 1.39 | 7.27 | -3.71 | 0.34 – 2.43 |
| 2031 | 0.73 | 8.32 | -5.85 | -0.61 – 2.08 |
| 2036 | -0.9 | 9.84 | -10 | -2.85 – 1.05 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.7k(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 12.2k | 14.1k | 10.5k | 11.8k – 12.6k |
| 2029 | 13.4k | 16.7k | 10.5k | 12.4k – 14.5k |
| 2031 | 14.6k | 18.9k | 10.9k | 13k – 16.3k |
| 2036 | 17.7k | 23.8k | 12.5k | 14.1k – 21.4k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed79.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 80.8 | 92.31 | 67.51 | 77.73 – 83.86 |
| 2029 | 82.99 | 102.93 | 59.98 | 75.94 – 90.04 |
| 2031 | 85.18 | 110.92 | 55.48 | 74.41 – 95.96 |
| 2036 | 90.66 | 127.07 | 48.66 | 70.56 – 110.77 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed438.2m(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 437.5m | 458.2m | 418.3m | 424m – 451.1m |
| 2029 | 440.3m | 461.1m | 421m | 407.8m – 472.9m |
| 2031 | 443.2m | 464.1m | 423.7m | 392.8m – 493.5m |
| 2036 | 450.2m | 471.5m | 430.5m | 356.8m – 543.6m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/SMQ · API docs
