Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
San Marino: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 42/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 14 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 0.68 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.16, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment +0.20) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-7% skill vs naive; realized ±8.3774 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
San Marino: forward projections across 14 macro indicators, horizons 2024, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2033, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed17.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 19.77 | 28.13 | 11.42 | 17.75 – 21.8 |
| 2029 | 25.12 | 30 | 10.65 | 20.96 – 29.28 |
| 2031 | 30 | 30 | 11.31 | 23.79 – 30 |
| 2036 | 30 | 30 | 3.57 | 19.81 – 30 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed185.99(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 150 | 150 | 131.78 | 144.6 – 150 |
| 2026 | 150 | 150 | 118.44 | 137.6 – 150 |
| 2028 | 150 | 150 | 109.25 | 131.28 – 150 |
| 2033 | 150 | 150 | 92.38 | 116.5 – 150 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2bn(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.5bn | 2.8bn | 2.3bn | 2.4bn – 2.6bn |
| 2029 | 2.8bn | 3.2bn | 2.4bn | 2.6bn – 3bn |
| 2031 | 3bn | 3.6bn | 2.5bn | 2.7bn – 3.4bn |
| 2036 | 3.7bn | 4.5bn | 3bn | 2.9bn – 4.4bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.4(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 0.68 | 8.02 | -5.68 | -0.56 – 1.92 |
| 2029 | -0.91 | 11.81 | -10 | -3.07 – 1.26 |
| 2031 | -2.49 | 12 | -10 | -5.43 – 0.44 |
| 2036 | -6.46 | 12 | -10 | -10 – -1.55 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed59.9k(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 72.9k | 80.7k | 66.2k | 70.6k – 75.2k |
| 2029 | 80k | 93.4k | 68.3k | 74.1k – 85.9k |
| 2031 | 87.1k | 104.4k | 72k | 77.2k – 97k |
| 2036 | 104.8k | 129.4k | 83.5k | 83.1k – 126.5k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed77.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 78.73 | 93.02 | 62.25 | 75.27 – 82.19 |
| 2029 | 81.59 | 106.34 | 53.04 | 73.87 – 89.31 |
| 2031 | 84.45 | 116.4 | 47.59 | 72.78 – 96.12 |
| 2036 | 91.6 | 136.78 | 39.47 | 70 – 113.21 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed154.99(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 150 | 150 | 128.17 | 144.26 – 150 |
| 2026 | 150 | 150 | 112.18 | 137.01 – 150 |
| 2028 | 150 | 150 | 101.18 | 130.53 – 150 |
| 2033 | 150 | 150 | 80.95 | 115.43 – 150 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.3(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.02 | 8.56 | -2.91 | 1.74 – 4.3 |
| 2029 | 3.73 | 13.32 | -5 | 1.42 – 6.03 |
| 2031 | 4.43 | 16.82 | -5 | 1.33 – 7.53 |
| 2036 | 6.2 | 23.71 | -5 | 1.33 – 11.07 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16.88(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 16.5 | 21.15 | 12.47 | 15.57 – 17.43 |
| 2026 | 15.41 | 23.46 | 8.43 | 13.52 – 17.3 |
| 2028 | 14.31 | 24.71 | 5.3 | 11.68 – 16.95 |
| 2033 | 11.58 | 26.29 | 0 | 7.63 – 15.54 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed34.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 34k | 35.6k | 32.5k | 32.9k – 35k |
| 2029 | 33.8k | 35.4k | 32.4k | 31.3k – 36.3k |
| 2031 | 33.7k | 35.3k | 32.2k | 29.9k – 37.5k |
| 2036 | 33.4k | 35.5k | 31.5k | 26.5k – 40.4k |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed861.2m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 897.8m | 1.2bn | 573.5m | 833.8m – 961.8m |
| 2028 | 988.5m | 1.6bn | 426.7m | 855.1m – 1.1bn |
| 2030 | 1.1bn | 1.8bn | 354m | 881.9m – 1.3bn |
| 2035 | 1.3bn | 2.3bn | 280.4m | 940.1m – 1.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.89(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2.8 | 4.46 | 1.13 | 2.5 – 3.1 |
| 2026 | 2.68 | 5.56 | 0 | 2.11 – 3.25 |
| 2028 | 2.63 | 6.35 | 0 | 1.85 – 3.41 |
| 2033 | 2.58 | 7.84 | 0 | 1.37 – 3.8 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed861.2m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 897.8m | 1.2bn | 573.5m | 833.8m – 961.8m |
| 2028 | 988.5m | 1.6bn | 426.7m | 855.1m – 1.1bn |
| 2030 | 1.1bn | 1.8bn | 354m | 881.9m – 1.3bn |
| 2035 | 1.3bn | 2.3bn | 280.4m | 940.1m – 1.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.07 | 5.23 | 2.91 | 3.83 – 4.31 |
| 2029 | 3.41 | 5.42 | 1.39 | 2.93 – 3.88 |
| 2031 | 2.74 | 5.34 | 0.14 | 2.13 – 3.36 |
| 2036 | 1.09 | 4.76 | 0 | 0.35 – 1.82 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/SMR · API docs
