Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
San Marino: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 34/100); the economy is in expansion; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 14 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 1.87 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.32, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.32) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-7% skill vs naive; realized ±0.5672 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
San Marino: forward projections across 14 macro indicators, horizons 2024, 2026, 2028, 2030, 2033, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed17.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20.44 | 28.68 | 12.21 | 18.44 – 22.45 |
| 2028 | 27.13 | 30 | 12.87 | 22.92 – 30 |
| 2030 | 30 | 30 | 11.59 | 23.84 – 30 |
| 2035 | 30 | 30 | 3.97 | 19.89 – 30 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed185.99(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 150 | 150 | 131.78 | 144.6 – 150 |
| 2026 | 150 | 150 | 118.44 | 137.6 – 150 |
| 2028 | 150 | 150 | 109.25 | 131.28 – 150 |
| 2033 | 150 | 150 | 92.38 | 116.5 – 150 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2bn(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.3bn | 2.6bn | 2.1bn | 2.3bn – 2.4bn |
| 2028 | 2.6bn | 3.1bn | 2.2bn | 2.4bn – 2.8bn |
| 2030 | 2.8bn | 3.4bn | 2.3bn | 2.5bn – 3.1bn |
| 2035 | 3.4bn | 4.3bn | 2.6bn | 2.7bn – 4.1bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.4(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.87 | 12 | -10 | -1.67 – 5.4 |
| 2028 | 2.43 | 12 | -10 | -3.76 – 8.62 |
| 2030 | 2.99 | 12 | -10 | -5.09 – 11.07 |
| 2035 | 4.4 | 12 | -10 | -7.39 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed59.9k(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 68.1k | 76.4k | 60.8k | 66k – 70.2k |
| 2028 | 74.5k | 89k | 62k | 69k – 80k |
| 2030 | 81k | 99.7k | 64.8k | 71.8k – 90.2k |
| 2035 | 97.1k | 123.6k | 74.2k | 77k – 117.3k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed77.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 63.66 | 86.29 | 37.55 | 59.16 – 68.16 |
| 2028 | 69.79 | 108.99 | 24.56 | 60.41 – 79.17 |
| 2030 | 75.92 | 126.52 | 17.53 | 62.06 – 89.78 |
| 2035 | 91.24 | 162.8 | 8.66 | 65.63 – 116.84 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed154.99(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 150 | 150 | 128.17 | 144.26 – 150 |
| 2026 | 150 | 150 | 112.18 | 137.01 – 150 |
| 2028 | 150 | 150 | 101.18 | 130.53 – 150 |
| 2033 | 150 | 150 | 80.95 | 115.43 – 150 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.3(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.09 | 8.77 | -3 | 1.78 – 4.4 |
| 2028 | 4.56 | 14.4 | -5 | 2.16 – 6.96 |
| 2030 | 6.04 | 18.73 | -5 | 2.74 – 9.33 |
| 2035 | 9.72 | 27.68 | -5 | 4.19 – 15.26 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16.88(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 16.5 | 21.15 | 12.47 | 15.57 – 17.43 |
| 2026 | 15.41 | 23.46 | 8.43 | 13.52 – 17.3 |
| 2028 | 14.31 | 24.71 | 5.3 | 11.68 – 16.95 |
| 2033 | 11.58 | 26.29 | 0 | 7.63 – 15.54 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed34.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 34.1k | 35.7k | 32.6k | 33.1k – 35.2k |
| 2028 | 34.3k | 35.9k | 32.8k | 31.7k – 36.8k |
| 2030 | 34.4k | 36.1k | 32.8k | 30.5k – 38.3k |
| 2035 | 34.8k | 37.2k | 32.5k | 27.6k – 42k |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed861.2m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 897.8m | 1.2bn | 573.5m | 833.8m – 961.8m |
| 2028 | 988.5m | 1.6bn | 426.7m | 855.1m – 1.1bn |
| 2030 | 1.1bn | 1.8bn | 354m | 881.9m – 1.3bn |
| 2035 | 1.3bn | 2.3bn | 280.4m | 940.1m – 1.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.89(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2.8 | 4.46 | 1.13 | 2.5 – 3.1 |
| 2026 | 2.68 | 5.56 | 0 | 2.11 – 3.25 |
| 2028 | 2.63 | 6.35 | 0 | 1.85 – 3.41 |
| 2033 | 2.58 | 7.84 | 0 | 1.37 – 3.8 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed861.2m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 897.8m | 1.2bn | 573.5m | 833.8m – 961.8m |
| 2028 | 988.5m | 1.6bn | 426.7m | 855.1m – 1.1bn |
| 2030 | 1.1bn | 1.8bn | 354m | 881.9m – 1.3bn |
| 2035 | 1.3bn | 2.3bn | 280.4m | 940.1m – 1.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.9 | 5.08 | 2.73 | 3.66 – 4.14 |
| 2028 | 2.71 | 4.74 | 0.68 | 2.27 – 3.15 |
| 2030 | 1.51 | 4.14 | 0 | 0.99 – 2.04 |
| 2035 | 0 | 3.71 | 0 | 0 – 0.73 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/SMR · API docs
