Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Somalia, Fed. Rep.: macro conditions look cautious (pressure 66/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 14 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 2.14 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as cautious (sentiment -0.32, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: cautious (projected sentiment -0.40) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 1989-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 1989-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: weak track record (+1% skill vs naive; realized ±4.8759 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Somalia, Fed. Rep.: forward projections across 13 macro indicators, horizons 1990, 1992, 1994, 1999, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-8.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -8.98 | -4.67 | -13.28 | -10 – -7.95 |
| 2029 | -9.53 | -2.07 | -16.99 | -11.51 – -7.55 |
| 2031 | -10.09 | -0.46 | -19.72 | -12.86 – -7.31 |
| 2036 | -11.47 | 2.15 | -25.09 | -16.09 – -6.86 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed29.25(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 31.9 | 39.25 | 25.52 | 30.33 – 33.46 |
| 2028 | 37.19 | 49.93 | 26.15 | 33.58 – 40.8 |
| 2030 | 42.48 | 58.93 | 28.23 | 36.74 – 48.23 |
| 2035 | 55.72 | 78.98 | 35.56 | 43.48 – 67.96 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed13bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 14.9bn | 15.7bn | 14.3bn | 14.5bn – 15.4bn |
| 2029 | 16.9bn | 18.2bn | 15.7bn | 15.6bn – 18.1bn |
| 2031 | 18.8bn | 20.5bn | 17.3bn | 16.7bn – 21bn |
| 2036 | 23.7bn | 26.1bn | 21.5bn | 18.7bn – 28.6bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.99(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.14 | 4 | 0.52 | 1.79 – 2.48 |
| 2029 | 1.12 | 4.35 | -1.67 | 0.53 – 1.71 |
| 2031 | 0.11 | 4.27 | -3.49 | -0.66 – 0.88 |
| 2036 | -2.42 | 3.46 | -7.52 | -3.79 – -1.05 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed661.17(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 853.95 | 957.47 | 764.24 | 827.48 – 880.43 |
| 2029 | 961.69 | 1.1k | 806.3 | 890.54 – 1k |
| 2031 | 1.1k | 1.3k | 868.81 | 948 – 1.2k |
| 2036 | 1.3k | 1.7k | 1.1k | 1.1k – 1.6k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed98.81(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 105.38 | 118.21 | 92.55 | 101.73 – 109.03 |
| 2028 | 118.51 | 140.73 | 96.28 | 109.42 – 127.6 |
| 2030 | 131.64 | 150 | 102.94 | 116.69 – 146.58 |
| 2035 | 150 | 150 | 109.42 | 118.88 – 150 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 6.96 | 10.29 | 3.4 | 6.11 – 7.81 |
| 2029 | 10.04 | 15.8 | 3.87 | 8.28 – 11.8 |
| 2031 | 13.12 | 20.56 | 5.15 | 10.42 – 15.82 |
| 2036 | 20.82 | 31.34 | 9.55 | 15.16 – 26.48 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.11(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 29.43 | 33.57 | 25.85 | 28.37 – 30.5 |
| 2028 | 33.03 | 40.2 | 26.82 | 30.42 – 35.64 |
| 2030 | 36.63 | 45.88 | 28.61 | 32.37 – 40.88 |
| 2035 | 45.62 | 58.7 | 34.27 | 36.15 – 55.08 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed19.7m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 17m | 18.7m | 15.4m | 16.5m – 17.5m |
| 2029 | 14.5m | 17.4m | 11.9m | 13.5m – 15.6m |
| 2031 | 12.1m | 15.8m | 8.6m | 10.7m – 13.5m |
| 2036 | 6m | 11.3m | 1.1m | 4.6m – 7.4m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-0.31(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.1 | 6.48 | -4.69 | -0.72 – 0.91 |
| 2028 | 1 | 12.05 | -7.29 | -0.43 – 2.43 |
| 2030 | 1.9 | 15 | -8.8 | -0.03 – 3.84 |
| 2035 | 4.16 | 15 | -10 | 0.97 – 7.35 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed15.4m(1989)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1990 | 16.5m | 28.6m | 4.5m | 14.4m – 18.6m |
| 1992 | 19.6m | 40.4m | 0 | 15.5m – 23.7m |
| 1994 | 22.6m | 49.6m | 0 | 16.7m – 28.6m |
| 1999 | 30.3m | 68.4m | 0 | 19.6m – 41m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed23.1m(1989)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1990 | 24.2m | 36.5m | 11.9m | 21.9m – 26.5m |
| 1992 | 27.2m | 48.6m | 5.9m | 22.7m – 31.8m |
| 1994 | 30.3m | 57.8m | 2.7m | 23.6m – 36.9m |
| 1999 | 37.8m | 76.8m | 0 | 25.8m – 49.8m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed18.95(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18.82 | 19.74 | 17.89 | 18.23 – 19.4 |
| 2028 | 18.55 | 19.46 | 17.64 | 17.18 – 19.92 |
| 2030 | 18.29 | 19.44 | 17.14 | 16.21 – 20.36 |
| 2035 | 17.63 | 19.25 | 16 | 13.97 – 21.28 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/SOM · API docs
