Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Serbia: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 43/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 1.61 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.14, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.08) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-7% skill vs naive; realized ±1.6903 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Serbia: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-4.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -4.77 | -0.1 | -9.44 | -5.8 – -3.74 |
| 2028 | -4.51 | 3.57 | -12.6 | -6.38 – -2.65 |
| 2030 | -4.26 | 6.18 | -14.7 | -6.73 – -1.79 |
| 2035 | -3.61 | 11.15 | -18.38 | -7.21 – -0.02 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed54.31(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 55.48 | 65.13 | 47.11 | 53.21 – 57.75 |
| 2028 | 57.81 | 74.53 | 43.32 | 52.65 – 62.97 |
| 2030 | 60.14 | 81.73 | 41.43 | 52.25 – 68.04 |
| 2035 | 65.97 | 96.5 | 39.51 | 51.05 – 80.89 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed100bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 107.5bn | 118.1bn | 98.3bn | 104.2bn – 110.8bn |
| 2028 | 126.1bn | 144.5bn | 110.2bn | 116.8bn – 135.4bn |
| 2030 | 144.7bn | 168.4bn | 124.1bn | 128.2bn – 161.1bn |
| 2035 | 191.1bn | 224.7bn | 162.1bn | 151.5bn – 230.8bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.03(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.61 | 11.45 | -6.92 | -0.06 – 3.28 |
| 2028 | 0.63 | 12 | -10 | -2.26 – 3.52 |
| 2030 | -0.35 | 12 | -10 | -4.1 – 3.4 |
| 2035 | -2.8 | 12 | -10 | -8.43 – 2.84 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed15.3k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16.4k | 18k | 15.1k | 15.9k – 16.9k |
| 2028 | 19.4k | 22.1k | 17k | 18k – 20.8k |
| 2030 | 22.3k | 25.8k | 19.3k | 19.8k – 24.9k |
| 2035 | 29.7k | 34.6k | 25.4k | 23.5k – 35.9k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed42.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 40.34 | 47 | 32.65 | 38.67 – 42.01 |
| 2028 | 36.62 | 48.15 | 23.3 | 33.08 – 40.15 |
| 2030 | 32.89 | 47.79 | 15.71 | 27.97 – 37.82 |
| 2035 | 23.59 | 44.65 | 0 | 16.57 – 30.6 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed58.61(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 59.04 | 72.3 | 45.79 | 56.07 – 62.02 |
| 2028 | 59.91 | 82.87 | 36.95 | 53.52 – 66.3 |
| 2030 | 60.78 | 90.42 | 31.13 | 51.38 – 70.18 |
| 2035 | 62.94 | 104.87 | 21.02 | 46.46 – 79.43 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.89(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.19 | 14.45 | -5 | 1.85 – 6.53 |
| 2028 | 3.1 | 20.86 | -5 | -0.99 – 7.19 |
| 2030 | 2.01 | 24.94 | -5 | -3.24 – 7.25 |
| 2035 | -0.72 | 31.71 | -5 | -5 – 6.63 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.84(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 22.85 | 25.31 | 20.72 | 22.14 – 23.57 |
| 2028 | 22.91 | 27.17 | 19.22 | 21.21 – 24.62 |
| 2030 | 22.98 | 28.47 | 18.21 | 20.35 – 25.6 |
| 2035 | 23.13 | 30.91 | 16.39 | 18.32 – 27.94 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.5m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.6m | 6.9m | 6.3m | 6.4m – 6.8m |
| 2028 | 6.5m | 6.8m | 6.2m | 6m – 7m |
| 2030 | 6.5m | 6.8m | 6.2m | 5.7m – 7.2m |
| 2035 | 6.4m | 6.7m | 6.1m | 5.1m – 7.7m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.46(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.47 | 8.37 | -1.96 | 1.69 – 3.24 |
| 2028 | 2.54 | 12.76 | -5.13 | 1.14 – 3.94 |
| 2030 | 2.61 | 15 | -7.29 | 0.75 – 4.47 |
| 2035 | 2.78 | 15 | -10 | 0.01 – 5.56 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed26.8bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 28.9bn | 32.5bn | 25.2bn | 27.8bn – 29.9bn |
| 2028 | 34bn | 40.3bn | 27.6bn | 31.4bn – 36.6bn |
| 2030 | 39.1bn | 47.3bn | 30.9bn | 34.6bn – 43.5bn |
| 2035 | 51.8bn | 63.4bn | 40.2bn | 41.1bn – 62.6bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.16(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.96 | 7.26 | 4.65 | 5.66 – 6.25 |
| 2028 | 5.71 | 7.97 | 3.46 | 5.09 – 6.33 |
| 2030 | 5.59 | 8.51 | 2.68 | 4.7 – 6.49 |
| 2035 | 5.5 | 9.62 | 1.38 | 3.99 – 7.01 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed34.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 37.3bn | 40.6bn | 33.9bn | 36.1bn – 38.4bn |
| 2028 | 45bn | 50.7bn | 39.2bn | 41.6bn – 48.3bn |
| 2030 | 52.6bn | 60.1bn | 45.2bn | 46.7bn – 58.6bn |
| 2035 | 71.9bn | 82.4bn | 61.4bn | 57bn – 86.8bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.12(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.63 | 8.16 | 5.09 | 6.28 – 6.97 |
| 2028 | 5.63 | 8.28 | 2.98 | 4.95 – 6.31 |
| 2030 | 4.63 | 8.06 | 1.21 | 3.74 – 5.53 |
| 2035 | 2.15 | 6.99 | 0 | 1.06 – 3.23 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/SRB · API docs
