Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Serbia: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 51/100); the economy is in expansion; 3 turning-point signals flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 2.2 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment -0.02, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment -0.04) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-7% skill vs naive; realized ±5.667 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Serbia: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-5.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -5.65 | -1.19 | -10.11 | -6.65 – -4.65 |
| 2029 | -5.55 | 2.18 | -13.27 | -7.39 – -3.7 |
| 2031 | -5.44 | 4.53 | -15.42 | -7.92 – -2.97 |
| 2036 | -5.19 | 8.92 | -19.29 | -8.9 – -1.48 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed54.31(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 55.48 | 65.13 | 47.11 | 53.21 – 57.75 |
| 2028 | 57.81 | 74.53 | 43.32 | 52.65 – 62.97 |
| 2030 | 60.14 | 81.73 | 41.43 | 52.25 – 68.04 |
| 2035 | 65.97 | 96.5 | 39.51 | 51.05 – 80.89 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed100bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 119.5bn | 129.5bn | 110.9bn | 115.8bn – 123.2bn |
| 2029 | 138.5bn | 155.8bn | 123.6bn | 128.3bn – 148.8bn |
| 2031 | 157.6bn | 179.9bn | 138.2bn | 139.7bn – 175.5bn |
| 2036 | 205.1bn | 236.7bn | 177.8bn | 162.6bn – 247.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.03(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.2 | 7.14 | -2.07 | 1.35 – 3.06 |
| 2029 | 0.89 | 9.44 | -6.52 | -0.58 – 2.37 |
| 2031 | -0.42 | 10.62 | -9.98 | -2.34 – 1.5 |
| 2036 | -3.7 | 11.91 | -10 | -6.89 – -0.5 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed15.3k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 18.4k | 19.9k | 17.2k | 17.9k – 19k |
| 2029 | 21.5k | 24k | 19.3k | 19.9k – 23.1k |
| 2031 | 24.6k | 27.9k | 21.8k | 21.8k – 27.4k |
| 2036 | 32.3k | 36.9k | 28.3k | 25.6k – 39k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed42.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 41.2 | 46.12 | 35.53 | 39.79 – 42.62 |
| 2029 | 38.41 | 46.92 | 28.58 | 35.25 – 41.56 |
| 2031 | 35.61 | 46.6 | 22.93 | 31.07 – 40.15 |
| 2036 | 28.62 | 44.16 | 10.69 | 21.65 – 35.59 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed58.61(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 59.04 | 72.3 | 45.79 | 56.07 – 62.02 |
| 2028 | 59.91 | 82.87 | 36.95 | 53.52 – 66.3 |
| 2030 | 60.78 | 90.42 | 31.13 | 51.38 – 70.18 |
| 2035 | 62.94 | 104.87 | 21.02 | 46.46 – 79.43 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.89(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.98 | 16.08 | -4.85 | 3.64 – 8.32 |
| 2029 | 7.81 | 25.32 | -5 | 3.56 – 12.07 |
| 2031 | 9.65 | 32.24 | -5 | 3.87 – 15.43 |
| 2036 | 14.23 | 46.18 | -5 | 4.87 – 23.59 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.84(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 22.85 | 25.31 | 20.72 | 22.14 – 23.57 |
| 2028 | 22.91 | 27.17 | 19.22 | 21.21 – 24.62 |
| 2030 | 22.98 | 28.47 | 18.21 | 20.35 – 25.6 |
| 2035 | 23.13 | 30.91 | 16.39 | 18.32 – 27.94 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.5m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 6.5m | 6.8m | 6.2m | 6.3m – 6.7m |
| 2029 | 6.4m | 6.7m | 6.2m | 6m – 6.9m |
| 2031 | 6.4m | 6.7m | 6.1m | 5.7m – 7.1m |
| 2036 | 6.2m | 6.5m | 6m | 4.9m – 7.5m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.46(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.47 | 8.37 | -1.96 | 1.69 – 3.24 |
| 2028 | 2.54 | 12.76 | -5.13 | 1.14 – 3.94 |
| 2030 | 2.61 | 15 | -7.29 | 0.75 – 4.47 |
| 2035 | 2.78 | 15 | -10 | 0.01 – 5.56 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed26.8bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 28.9bn | 32.5bn | 25.2bn | 27.8bn – 29.9bn |
| 2028 | 34bn | 40.3bn | 27.6bn | 31.4bn – 36.6bn |
| 2030 | 39.1bn | 47.3bn | 30.9bn | 34.6bn – 43.5bn |
| 2035 | 51.8bn | 63.4bn | 40.2bn | 41.1bn – 62.6bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.16(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.96 | 7.26 | 4.65 | 5.66 – 6.25 |
| 2028 | 5.71 | 7.97 | 3.46 | 5.09 – 6.33 |
| 2030 | 5.59 | 8.51 | 2.68 | 4.7 – 6.49 |
| 2035 | 5.5 | 9.62 | 1.38 | 3.99 – 7.01 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed34.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 37.3bn | 40.6bn | 33.9bn | 36.1bn – 38.4bn |
| 2028 | 45bn | 50.7bn | 39.2bn | 41.6bn – 48.3bn |
| 2030 | 52.6bn | 60.1bn | 45.2bn | 46.7bn – 58.6bn |
| 2035 | 71.9bn | 82.4bn | 61.4bn | 57bn – 86.8bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.12(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 8.51 | 10.6 | 6.42 | 8.05 – 8.96 |
| 2029 | 7.93 | 11.54 | 4.31 | 6.99 – 8.86 |
| 2031 | 7.34 | 12.01 | 2.68 | 6.04 – 8.65 |
| 2036 | 5.89 | 12.49 | 0 | 3.94 – 7.84 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/SRB · API docs
