Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Sub-Saharan Africa (excluding high income): macro conditions look balanced (pressure 38/100); the economy is in expansion; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 17 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 4.53 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.24, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment +0.16) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2020-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-7% skill vs naive) · a track record, not a guarantee
Sub-Saharan Africa (excluding high income): forward projections across 13 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-0.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -0.38 | 1.36 | -2.12 | -0.75 – -0.01 |
| 2029 | 0.06 | 3.08 | -2.96 | -0.6 – 0.72 |
| 2031 | 0.5 | 4.4 | -3.4 | -0.37 – 1.38 |
| 2036 | 1.6 | 7.11 | -3.91 | 0.22 – 2.98 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed27.79(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 28.72 | 33.71 | 24.4 | 27.55 – 29.9 |
| 2028 | 30.59 | 39.23 | 23.1 | 27.89 – 33.29 |
| 2030 | 32.45 | 43.61 | 22.78 | 28.26 – 36.64 |
| 2035 | 37.12 | 52.89 | 23.44 | 28.92 – 45.31 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.2T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.5T | 2.9T | 2.2T | 2.4T – 2.6T |
| 2029 | 2.7T | 3.3T | 2.1T | 2.5T – 2.9T |
| 2031 | 2.9T | 3.7T | 2.1T | 2.5T – 3.2T |
| 2036 | 3.3T | 4.5T | 2.3T | 2.6T – 4T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.14(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.53 | 6.14 | 3.14 | 4.19 – 4.87 |
| 2029 | 5.06 | 7.85 | 2.64 | 4.35 – 5.77 |
| 2031 | 5.59 | 9.19 | 2.47 | 4.54 – 6.64 |
| 2036 | 6.91 | 12 | 2.49 | 4.95 – 8.86 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.7k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2k | 2.4k | 1.7k | 2k – 2.1k |
| 2029 | 2.2k | 2.8k | 1.6k | 2k – 2.3k |
| 2031 | 2.3k | 3.1k | 1.6k | 2k – 2.6k |
| 2036 | 2.6k | 3.8k | 1.6k | 2k – 3.2k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed56.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 58.14 | 62.87 | 52.69 | 56.34 – 59.94 |
| 2029 | 62.23 | 70.42 | 52.78 | 57.62 – 66.83 |
| 2031 | 66.31 | 76.89 | 54.11 | 58.78 – 73.84 |
| 2036 | 76.52 | 91.48 | 59.27 | 60.65 – 92.4 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed27.8(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 28.67 | 32.96 | 24.38 | 27.55 – 29.79 |
| 2028 | 30.4 | 37.83 | 22.97 | 27.81 – 33 |
| 2030 | 32.13 | 41.73 | 22.54 | 28.09 – 36.17 |
| 2035 | 36.46 | 50.03 | 22.9 | 28.55 – 44.37 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.46(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 11.1 | 18.49 | 3.18 | 9.28 – 12.91 |
| 2029 | 18.58 | 31.38 | 4.86 | 14.85 – 22.31 |
| 2031 | 26.06 | 42.59 | 8.34 | 20.31 – 31.81 |
| 2036 | 44.76 | 50 | 19.71 | 32.41 – 50 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.98(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23.53 | 26.69 | 20.79 | 22.7 – 24.36 |
| 2028 | 24.83 | 30.3 | 20.09 | 22.86 – 26.8 |
| 2030 | 26.13 | 33.19 | 20.01 | 23.03 – 29.23 |
| 2035 | 29.38 | 39.37 | 20.72 | 23.25 – 35.51 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.2bn | 1.3bn | 1.1bn | 1.2bn – 1.2bn |
| 2029 | 1.1bn | 1.2bn | 990.8m | 1bn – 1.2bn |
| 2031 | 1bn | 1.2bn | 855.5m | 892m – 1.1bn |
| 2036 | 753.2m | 982.8m | 540m | 597m – 909.4m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.35(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.85 | 7.65 | -2.5 | 1.09 – 2.6 |
| 2028 | 3.07 | 13.11 | -4.47 | 1.66 – 4.47 |
| 2030 | 4.29 | 15 | -5.44 | 2.32 – 6.25 |
| 2035 | 7.34 | 15 | -6.42 | 3.87 – 10.81 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.46(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.15 | 7.7 | 4.59 | 5.81 – 6.48 |
| 2028 | 5.78 | 8.46 | 3.09 | 5.09 – 6.46 |
| 2030 | 5.59 | 9.06 | 2.12 | 4.62 – 6.57 |
| 2035 | 5.45 | 10.36 | 0.54 | 3.83 – 7.07 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.66(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.41 | 6.05 | 4.77 | 5.22 – 5.59 |
| 2028 | 4.91 | 6.02 | 3.79 | 4.5 – 5.31 |
| 2030 | 4.4 | 5.84 | 2.97 | 3.83 – 4.98 |
| 2035 | 3.15 | 5.18 | 1.11 | 2.33 – 3.96 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/SSA · API docs
