Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
South Sudan: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 55/100); the economy is in expansion; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 18 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 12 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment -0.10, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment -0.02) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2015-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2015-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2015-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2015-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2015-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2015-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: moderate track record (+30% skill vs naive; realized ±7.9 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
South Sudan: forward projections across 14 macro indicators, horizons 2016, 2018, 2020, 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2033, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed3.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.56 | 30 | -30 | -14.93 – 16.04 |
| 2028 | 9.67 | 30 | -30 | -17.59 – 30 |
| 2030 | 18.78 | 30 | -30 | -17.31 – 30 |
| 2035 | 30 | 30 | -30 | -23.71 – 30 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed36.65(2015)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 30.78 | 69.59 | 0 | 24.74 – 36.81 |
| 2018 | 19.02 | 86.25 | 0 | 8.51 – 29.54 |
| 2020 | 7.27 | 94.06 | 0 | 0 – 20.25 |
| 2025 | 0 | 122.74 | 0 | 0 – 17.69 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed12bn(2015)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.4bn | 8.4bn | 2.8bn | 4.9bn – 5.8bn |
| 2028 | 4.7bn | 9.9bn | 200.9m | 3.9bn – 5.6bn |
| 2030 | 4bn | 10.8bn | 0 | 2.9bn – 5.2bn |
| 2035 | 2.4bn | 11.9bn | 0 | 861.9m – 3.9bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-10.79(2015)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 12 | 12 | -10 | -0.14 – 12 |
| 2028 | 12 | 12 | -10 | -9.26 – 12 |
| 2030 | 12 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.1k(2015)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 429.66 | 704.45 | 191.51 | 390.07 – 469.25 |
| 2028 | 346.49 | 822.45 | 0 | 273.2 – 419.79 |
| 2030 | 263.33 | 877.78 | 0 | 169.11 – 357.54 |
| 2035 | 55.41 | 924.38 | 0 | 0 – 167.73 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed57.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 56.78 | 98.4 | 8.77 | 49.47 – 64.09 |
| 2028 | 46.15 | 118.23 | 0 | 32.85 – 59.45 |
| 2030 | 35.52 | 128.57 | 0 | 18.36 – 52.67 |
| 2035 | 8.94 | 140.53 | 0 | 0 – 30.61 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.9(2015)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 28.64 | 43.85 | 13.44 | 25.86 – 31.43 |
| 2018 | 28.13 | 54.47 | 1.8 | 22.75 – 33.51 |
| 2020 | 27.62 | 61.62 | 0 | 20.21 – 35.04 |
| 2025 | 26.35 | 74.42 | 0 | 14.77 – 37.92 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed91.44(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 50 | 50 | -5 | 31.44 – 50 |
| 2028 | 50 | 50 | -5 | 16.83 – 50 |
| 2030 | 50 | 50 | -5 | 6.28 – 50 |
| 2035 | 50 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 50 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.75(2015)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 5.18 | 10.41 | 0.65 | 4.35 – 6.01 |
| 2018 | 3.48 | 12.54 | 0 | 2.02 – 4.94 |
| 2020 | 1.77 | 13.47 | 0 | 0 – 3.59 |
| 2025 | 0 | 16.55 | 0 | 0 – 2.52 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed12.2m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 12.1m | 12.6m | 11.5m | 11.7m – 12.4m |
| 2028 | 12.3m | 13.3m | 11.4m | 11.4m – 13.2m |
| 2030 | 12.6m | 13.9m | 11.4m | 11.2m – 14m |
| 2035 | 13.3m | 15.1m | 11.6m | 10.5m – 16m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16m(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0 | 366.3m | 0 | 0 – 56.1m |
| 2027 | 0 | 634.5m | 0 | 0 – 97.1m |
| 2029 | 0 | 819.2m | 0 | 0 – 125.4m |
| 2034 | 0 | 1.2bn | 0 | 0 – 177.3m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.17(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 0.27 | 1.22 | 0 | 0.11 – 0.43 |
| 2026 | 0.39 | 2.02 | 0 | 0.1 – 0.69 |
| 2028 | 0.45 | 2.56 | 0 | 0.05 – 0.85 |
| 2033 | 0.5 | 3.47 | 0 | 0 – 1.11 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16m(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0 | 366.3m | 0 | 0 – 56.1m |
| 2027 | 0 | 634.5m | 0 | 0 – 97.1m |
| 2029 | 0 | 819.2m | 0 | 0 – 125.4m |
| 2034 | 0 | 1.2bn | 0 | 0 – 177.3m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed12.37(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 12.28 | 14.2 | 10.36 | 11.79 – 12.77 |
| 2026 | 12.1 | 15.42 | 8.77 | 11.01 – 13.19 |
| 2028 | 11.91 | 16.2 | 7.62 | 10.3 – 13.52 |
| 2033 | 11.45 | 17.52 | 5.38 | 8.69 – 14.21 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/SSD · API docs
