Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
SSQ: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 36/100); the economy is in expansion; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 7 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 5.2 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.28, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.18) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-8% skill vs naive; realized ±0.704 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
SSQ: forward projections across 7 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-0.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.71 | 1.11 | -2.53 | -1.1 – -0.32 |
| 2028 | -0.33 | 2.83 | -3.48 | -1.02 – 0.37 |
| 2030 | 0.06 | 4.13 | -4.01 | -0.85 – 0.97 |
| 2035 | 1.02 | 6.77 | -4.74 | -0.32 – 2.35 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.6T(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.2T | 2.5T | 2T | 2.1T – 2.3T |
| 2028 | 2.2T | 2.7T | 1.7T | 2T – 2.4T |
| 2030 | 2.2T | 2.9T | 1.6T | 1.9T – 2.4T |
| 2035 | 2.1T | 3.1T | 1.3T | 1.7T – 2.6T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.2 | 11 | 0.18 | 4.16 – 6.25 |
| 2028 | 6.81 | 12 | -1.88 | 4.81 – 8.81 |
| 2030 | 8.42 | 12 | -2.81 | 5.59 – 11.26 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -3.88 | 7.03 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2k(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.7k | 2k | 1.5k | 1.7k – 1.8k |
| 2028 | 1.6k | 2.1k | 1.2k | 1.5k – 1.8k |
| 2030 | 1.5k | 2.1k | 1k | 1.3k – 1.7k |
| 2035 | 1.3k | 2.1k | 572.3 | 976.19 – 1.6k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed58.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 61.44 | 67.31 | 54.68 | 59.54 – 63.35 |
| 2028 | 66.13 | 76.29 | 54.41 | 61.24 – 71.03 |
| 2030 | 70.82 | 83.94 | 55.69 | 62.78 – 78.87 |
| 2035 | 82.55 | 101.09 | 61.15 | 65.43 – 99.67 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.63 | 18.31 | 0.33 | 7.55 – 11.71 |
| 2028 | -2.97 | 12.07 | -5 | -5 – 0.51 |
| 2030 | -5 | 14.42 | -5 | -5 – -0.3 |
| 2035 | -5 | 22.46 | -5 | -5 – 1.89 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.3bn(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.2bn | 1.3bn | 1.2bn | 1.2bn – 1.3bn |
| 2028 | 1.3bn | 1.3bn | 1.2bn | 1.2bn – 1.4bn |
| 2030 | 1.3bn | 1.4bn | 1.3bn | 1.2bn – 1.5bn |
| 2035 | 1.4bn | 1.5bn | 1.3bn | 1.1bn – 1.7bn |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-11-03 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/SSQ · API docs
