Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Sao Tome and Principe: macro conditions look cautious (pressure 65/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 17 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 1.15 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as cautious (sentiment -0.30, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: cautious (projected sentiment -0.22) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2007-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-10% skill vs naive; realized ±0.7471 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Sao Tome and Principe: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-6.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -2.61 | 8.24 | -13.47 | -4.87 – -0.36 |
| 2028 | 0.76 | 19.57 | -18.05 | -3.13 – 4.64 |
| 2030 | 4.13 | 28.41 | -20.15 | -1.16 – 9.41 |
| 2035 | 12.56 | 30 | -21.78 | 3.54 – 21.57 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed13.26(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 12.73 | 21.6 | 5.04 | 11.26 – 14.2 |
| 2028 | 11.67 | 27.03 | 0 | 8.91 – 14.42 |
| 2030 | 10.6 | 30.44 | 0 | 6.92 – 14.28 |
| 2035 | 7.94 | 35.99 | 0 | 2.66 – 13.22 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed981.3m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.1bn | 1.2bn | 978.6m | 1bn – 1.1bn |
| 2028 | 1.3bn | 1.5bn | 1.1bn | 1.2bn – 1.4bn |
| 2030 | 1.6bn | 1.8bn | 1.3bn | 1.4bn – 1.7bn |
| 2035 | 2.2bn | 2.5bn | 1.8bn | 1.7bn – 2.6bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.03(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.15 | 3.14 | -0.58 | 0.8 – 1.5 |
| 2028 | 1.36 | 4.8 | -1.63 | 0.72 – 2 |
| 2030 | 1.57 | 6.01 | -2.28 | 0.7 – 2.43 |
| 2035 | 2.09 | 8.38 | -3.35 | 0.71 – 3.48 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.4k | 4.9k | 4.1k | 4.3k – 4.6k |
| 2028 | 5.4k | 6.2k | 4.7k | 5k – 5.8k |
| 2030 | 6.3k | 7.3k | 5.4k | 5.6k – 7k |
| 2035 | 8.5k | 10k | 7.3k | 6.8k – 10.3k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed55.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 54.69 | 65.84 | 41.83 | 52.1 – 57.28 |
| 2028 | 45.87 | 65.18 | 23.6 | 40.7 – 51.05 |
| 2030 | 37.06 | 61.98 | 8.3 | 30.26 – 43.86 |
| 2035 | 15.02 | 50.26 | 0 | 7.19 – 22.84 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed33.3(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 29.75 | 43.69 | 15.82 | 27.15 – 32.36 |
| 2028 | 22.65 | 46.79 | 0 | 17.87 – 27.44 |
| 2030 | 15.55 | 46.71 | 0 | 9.54 – 21.57 |
| 2035 | 0 | 44.06 | 0 | 0 – 6.9 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.05(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.18 | 21.99 | -2.47 | 7.4 – 12.96 |
| 2028 | 5.56 | 26.01 | -5 | 0.76 – 10.36 |
| 2030 | 0.93 | 27.33 | -5 | -5 – 6.86 |
| 2035 | -5 | 32.33 | -5 | -5 – 4.08 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.67(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.44 | 11.41 | 5.86 | 7.88 – 9 |
| 2028 | 7.84 | 12.99 | 3.38 | 6.73 – 8.95 |
| 2030 | 7.25 | 13.9 | 1.48 | 5.72 – 8.78 |
| 2035 | 5.76 | 15.17 | 0 | 3.5 – 8.03 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed240.3k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 239k | 250.3k | 228.6k | 231.6k – 246.5k |
| 2028 | 244.2k | 255.8k | 233.5k | 226.2k – 262.3k |
| 2030 | 249.4k | 261.2k | 238.5k | 221.1k – 277.8k |
| 2035 | 262.4k | 274.8k | 250.9k | 208k – 316.8k |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-1.26(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.91 | 5.31 | -5.58 | -1.71 – -0.12 |
| 2028 | -0.26 | 10.51 | -8.34 | -1.66 – 1.13 |
| 2030 | 0.39 | 14.3 | -10 | -1.43 – 2.21 |
| 2035 | 2.02 | 15 | -10 | -0.76 – 4.8 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed58.8m(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 55.1m | 85m | 25.1m | 49.6m – 60.5m |
| 2027 | 47.6m | 99.6m | 0 | 37.4m – 57.9m |
| 2029 | 40.2m | 107.3m | 0 | 26.7m – 53.7m |
| 2034 | 21.6m | 116.5m | 0 | 3.7m – 39.6m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.72(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2.98 | 5.22 | 0.73 | 2.58 – 3.37 |
| 2027 | 3.29 | 7.18 | 0 | 2.53 – 4.04 |
| 2029 | 3.44 | 8.46 | 0 | 2.39 – 4.48 |
| 2034 | 3.56 | 10.67 | 0 | 1.9 – 5.22 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed58.8m(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 55.1m | 85m | 25.1m | 49.6m – 60.5m |
| 2027 | 47.6m | 99.6m | 0 | 37.4m – 57.9m |
| 2029 | 40.2m | 107.3m | 0 | 26.7m – 53.7m |
| 2034 | 21.6m | 116.5m | 0 | 3.7m – 39.6m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.13(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.01 | 9.51 | 8.51 | 8.73 – 9.29 |
| 2028 | 8.77 | 9.64 | 7.91 | 8.12 – 9.42 |
| 2030 | 8.53 | 9.65 | 7.42 | 7.57 – 9.5 |
| 2035 | 7.94 | 9.51 | 6.36 | 6.29 – 9.58 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/STP · API docs
