Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Sao Tome and Principe: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 49/100); the economy is in expansion; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 17 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 4 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.02, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment +0.00) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2007-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-11% skill vs naive; realized ±3.7164 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Sao Tome and Principe: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-4.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -3.32 | 4.96 | -11.6 | -5.06 – -1.57 |
| 2029 | -0.55 | 13.79 | -14.9 | -3.53 – 2.42 |
| 2031 | 2.21 | 20.73 | -16.31 | -1.75 – 6.17 |
| 2036 | 9.12 | 30 | -17.07 | 2.32 – 15.93 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed13.26(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 12.73 | 21.6 | 5.04 | 11.26 – 14.2 |
| 2028 | 11.67 | 27.03 | 0 | 8.91 – 14.42 |
| 2030 | 10.6 | 30.44 | 0 | 6.92 – 14.28 |
| 2035 | 7.94 | 35.99 | 0 | 2.66 – 13.22 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed981.3m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.3bn | 1.4bn | 1.2bn | 1.2bn – 1.3bn |
| 2029 | 1.5bn | 1.8bn | 1.4bn | 1.4bn – 1.7bn |
| 2031 | 1.8bn | 2.1bn | 1.6bn | 1.6bn – 2bn |
| 2036 | 2.5bn | 2.9bn | 2.2bn | 2bn – 3bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.03(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4 | 6.92 | 1.48 | 3.45 – 4.55 |
| 2029 | 5.44 | 10.49 | 1.06 | 4.33 – 6.54 |
| 2031 | 6.87 | 12 | 1.22 | 5.23 – 8.51 |
| 2036 | 10.46 | 12 | 2.47 | 7.25 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.1k | 5.6k | 4.7k | 5k – 5.3k |
| 2029 | 6.1k | 7k | 5.4k | 5.7k – 6.6k |
| 2031 | 7.2k | 8.2k | 6.2k | 6.3k – 8k |
| 2036 | 9.7k | 11.2k | 8.4k | 7.7k – 11.7k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed50.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 45.08 | 55.38 | 33.21 | 42.78 – 47.39 |
| 2029 | 34.45 | 52.28 | 13.88 | 30.05 – 38.85 |
| 2031 | 23.82 | 46.84 | 0 | 18.37 – 29.27 |
| 2036 | 0 | 32.55 | 0 | 0 – 5.17 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed33.3(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 29.75 | 43.69 | 15.82 | 27.15 – 32.36 |
| 2028 | 22.65 | 46.79 | 0 | 17.87 – 27.44 |
| 2030 | 15.55 | 46.71 | 0 | 9.54 – 21.57 |
| 2035 | 0 | 44.06 | 0 | 0 – 6.9 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.05(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 9.45 | 21.23 | -3.16 | 6.69 – 12.22 |
| 2029 | 7.43 | 27.82 | -5 | 2.55 – 12.31 |
| 2031 | 5.4 | 31.73 | -5 | -0.87 – 11.67 |
| 2036 | 0.34 | 37.57 | -5 | -5 – 8.75 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.67(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.44 | 11.41 | 5.86 | 7.88 – 9 |
| 2028 | 7.84 | 12.99 | 3.38 | 6.73 – 8.95 |
| 2030 | 7.25 | 13.9 | 1.48 | 5.72 – 8.78 |
| 2035 | 5.76 | 15.17 | 0 | 3.5 – 8.03 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed240.3k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 243.8k | 255.3k | 233.1k | 236.2k – 251.3k |
| 2029 | 249k | 260.8k | 238.1k | 230.6k – 267.4k |
| 2031 | 254.2k | 266.2k | 243.1k | 225.3k – 283.1k |
| 2036 | 267.3k | 279.9k | 255.5k | 211.8k – 322.7k |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-1.26(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.91 | 5.31 | -5.58 | -1.71 – -0.12 |
| 2028 | -0.26 | 10.51 | -8.34 | -1.66 – 1.13 |
| 2030 | 0.39 | 14.3 | -10 | -1.43 – 2.21 |
| 2035 | 2.02 | 15 | -10 | -0.76 – 4.8 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed58.8m(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 55.1m | 85m | 25.1m | 49.6m – 60.5m |
| 2027 | 47.6m | 99.6m | 0 | 37.4m – 57.9m |
| 2029 | 40.2m | 107.3m | 0 | 26.7m – 53.7m |
| 2034 | 21.6m | 116.5m | 0 | 3.7m – 39.6m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.46(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3.52 | 5.81 | 1.23 | 3.11 – 3.93 |
| 2027 | 3.6 | 7.57 | 0 | 2.82 – 4.38 |
| 2029 | 3.63 | 8.76 | 0 | 2.56 – 4.71 |
| 2034 | 3.66 | 10.91 | 0 | 1.97 – 5.36 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed58.8m(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 55.1m | 85m | 25.1m | 49.6m – 60.5m |
| 2027 | 47.6m | 99.6m | 0 | 37.4m – 57.9m |
| 2029 | 40.2m | 107.3m | 0 | 26.7m – 53.7m |
| 2034 | 21.6m | 116.5m | 0 | 3.7m – 39.6m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.13(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.01 | 9.51 | 8.51 | 8.73 – 9.29 |
| 2028 | 8.77 | 9.64 | 7.91 | 8.12 – 9.42 |
| 2030 | 8.53 | 9.65 | 7.42 | 7.57 – 9.5 |
| 2035 | 7.94 | 9.51 | 6.36 | 6.29 – 9.58 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/STP · API docs
