Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Slovakia: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 55/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 23 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 0.52 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment -0.10, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment -0.04) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-06-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-06-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-08-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-08-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-11% skill vs naive; realized ±0.0826 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Slovakia: forward projections across 17 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -3.98 | 3.45 | -11.41 | -5.56 – -2.4 |
| 2028 | -4.74 | 8.14 | -17.61 | -7.59 – -1.88 |
| 2030 | -5.49 | 11.13 | -22.11 | -9.32 – -1.66 |
| 2035 | -7.39 | 16.12 | -30 | -13.36 – -1.41 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed85.09(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 84.25 | 96.98 | 73.22 | 81.09 – 87.42 |
| 2028 | 82.57 | 104.61 | 63.47 | 75.46 – 89.68 |
| 2030 | 80.88 | 109.34 | 56.22 | 70.35 – 91.42 |
| 2035 | 76.67 | 116.91 | 41.8 | 58.66 – 94.69 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed154.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 162.8bn | 179.1bn | 148.8bn | 157.8bn – 167.9bn |
| 2028 | 183.2bn | 211.3bn | 158.9bn | 169.7bn – 196.8bn |
| 2030 | 203.6bn | 239.9bn | 172.2bn | 180.5bn – 226.7bn |
| 2035 | 254.6bn | 305.8bn | 210.2bn | 201.8bn – 307.4bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.81(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.52 | 9.7 | -7.44 | -1.03 – 2.06 |
| 2028 | -0.13 | 12 | -10 | -2.83 – 2.57 |
| 2030 | -0.78 | 12 | -10 | -4.28 – 2.72 |
| 2035 | -2.4 | 12 | -10 | -7.62 – 2.82 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.5k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 30.1k | 33.1k | 27.5k | 29.1k – 31k |
| 2028 | 33.8k | 39k | 29.3k | 31.3k – 36.3k |
| 2030 | 37.6k | 44.3k | 31.8k | 33.3k – 41.9k |
| 2035 | 47k | 56.5k | 38.8k | 37.3k – 56.8k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.85(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.24 | 5.47 | 0.85 | 2.64 – 3.84 |
| 2029 | 2.52 | 6.38 | 0 | 1.45 – 3.59 |
| 2031 | 2.16 | 7.15 | 0 | 0.76 – 3.56 |
| 2036 | 1.88 | 8.93 | 0 | 0 – 3.92 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed63(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 62.86 | 69.95 | 54.68 | 60.76 – 64.95 |
| 2028 | 65.37 | 77.65 | 51.2 | 60.34 – 70.4 |
| 2030 | 67.88 | 83.73 | 49.59 | 60.01 – 75.75 |
| 2035 | 74.16 | 96.58 | 48.3 | 58.78 – 89.55 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed85.25(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 84.57 | 102.21 | 66.94 | 80.52 – 88.62 |
| 2028 | 83.22 | 113.76 | 52.67 | 74.55 – 91.89 |
| 2030 | 81.86 | 121.29 | 42.43 | 69.28 – 94.45 |
| 2035 | 78.47 | 134.24 | 22.71 | 57.38 – 99.57 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.18 | 16.67 | -5 | 2.55 – 7.81 |
| 2028 | 6.92 | 26.82 | -5 | 2.17 – 11.66 |
| 2030 | 8.66 | 34.36 | -5 | 2.27 – 15.05 |
| 2035 | 13.01 | 49.35 | -5 | 2.87 – 23.14 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.1(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.69 | 13.22 | -5 | 1.52 – 5.86 |
| 2029 | 4.26 | 20.77 | -5 | 0.4 – 8.12 |
| 2031 | 4.46 | 25.77 | -5 | -0.62 – 9.55 |
| 2036 | 4.57 | 34.7 | -5 | -2.84 – 11.98 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20.53(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20.4 | 22.35 | 18.71 | 19.77 – 21.03 |
| 2028 | 20.11 | 23.49 | 17.19 | 18.63 – 21.6 |
| 2030 | 19.83 | 24.19 | 16.05 | 17.58 – 22.08 |
| 2035 | 19.12 | 25.28 | 13.78 | 15.15 – 23.08 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.4m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.4m | 5.7m | 5.2m | 5.2m – 5.6m |
| 2028 | 5.4m | 5.7m | 5.2m | 5m – 5.8m |
| 2030 | 5.4m | 5.7m | 5.2m | 4.8m – 6m |
| 2035 | 5.4m | 5.6m | 5.1m | 4.3m – 6.5m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.42(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.93 | 9.25 | -3.56 | 0.98 – 2.87 |
| 2028 | 2.96 | 15 | -6.55 | 1.23 – 4.68 |
| 2030 | 3.99 | 15 | -8.29 | 1.62 – 6.35 |
| 2035 | 6.57 | 15 | -10 | 2.62 – 10.51 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed13.7bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15bn | 16.5bn | 13.5bn | 14.5bn – 15.5bn |
| 2028 | 18.2bn | 20.8bn | 15.6bn | 16.9bn – 19.6bn |
| 2030 | 21.4bn | 24.8bn | 18.1bn | 19bn – 23.9bn |
| 2035 | 29.5bn | 34.2bn | 24.8bn | 23.4bn – 35.6bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.54(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.36 | 1.68 | 1.04 | 1.29 – 1.43 |
| 2028 | 1.14 | 1.69 | 0.59 | 1 – 1.28 |
| 2030 | 1.03 | 1.74 | 0.33 | 0.84 – 1.22 |
| 2035 | 0.95 | 1.94 | 0 | 0.63 – 1.26 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed18.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20bn | 22.3bn | 17.6bn | 19.3bn – 20.6bn |
| 2028 | 24.4bn | 28.5bn | 20.4bn | 22.6bn – 26.3bn |
| 2030 | 28.9bn | 34.1bn | 23.7bn | 25.6bn – 32.2bn |
| 2035 | 40.2bn | 47.5bn | 32.8bn | 31.8bn – 48.5bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.36(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.02 | 5.71 | 4.33 | 4.83 – 5.2 |
| 2028 | 4.34 | 5.53 | 3.15 | 3.95 – 4.73 |
| 2030 | 3.66 | 5.2 | 2.13 | 3.13 – 4.19 |
| 2035 | 1.96 | 4.13 | 0 | 1.32 – 2.61 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/SVK · API docs
