Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Slovenia: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 38/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 23 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 0.77 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.24, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.24) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-06-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-06-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-09-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-09-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-13% skill vs naive; realized ±2.4345 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Slovenia: forward projections across 17 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed2.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.69 | 9.74 | -2.36 | 2.4 – 4.99 |
| 2028 | 2.88 | 13.36 | -7.61 | 0.6 – 5.15 |
| 2030 | 2.06 | 15.59 | -11.47 | -0.87 – 4.98 |
| 2035 | 0.02 | 19.15 | -19.12 | -4.05 – 4.08 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed78.64(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 78.17 | 92 | 66.18 | 74.94 – 81.39 |
| 2028 | 77.23 | 101.18 | 56.46 | 70.1 – 84.35 |
| 2030 | 76.28 | 107.21 | 49.48 | 65.76 – 86.8 |
| 2035 | 73.93 | 117.67 | 36.02 | 55.85 – 92 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed79.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 84bn | 92.6bn | 76.5bn | 81.4bn – 86.6bn |
| 2028 | 94.6bn | 109.6bn | 81.6bn | 87.6bn – 101.6bn |
| 2030 | 105.2bn | 124.6bn | 88.4bn | 93.3bn – 117.2bn |
| 2035 | 131.8bn | 159.2bn | 108.1bn | 104.5bn – 159.2bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.06(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.77 | 12 | -10 | -1.38 – 2.91 |
| 2028 | 0.07 | 12 | -10 | -3.67 – 3.8 |
| 2030 | -0.63 | 12 | -10 | -5.47 – 4.21 |
| 2035 | -2.38 | 12 | -10 | -9.49 – 4.73 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed37.4k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 39.3k | 43.4k | 35.7k | 38.1k – 40.5k |
| 2028 | 44.1k | 51.2k | 37.8k | 40.8k – 47.3k |
| 2030 | 48.8k | 58.1k | 40.8k | 43.3k – 54.4k |
| 2035 | 60.7k | 73.8k | 49.4k | 48.1k – 73.3k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.86(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.25 | 5.6 | 0.74 | 2.62 – 3.88 |
| 2029 | 2.53 | 6.59 | 0 | 1.41 – 3.65 |
| 2031 | 2.18 | 7.42 | 0 | 0.71 – 3.64 |
| 2036 | 1.9 | 9.31 | 0 | 0 – 4.02 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed63.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 63.96 | 74.44 | 51.87 | 61.32 – 66.59 |
| 2028 | 61.68 | 79.82 | 40.74 | 55.93 – 67.43 |
| 2030 | 59.4 | 82.82 | 32.37 | 51.04 – 67.75 |
| 2035 | 53.69 | 86.83 | 15.47 | 40.01 – 67.38 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed73.28(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 73.34 | 91.04 | 55.64 | 69.46 – 77.22 |
| 2028 | 73.47 | 104.13 | 42.81 | 65.25 – 81.69 |
| 2030 | 73.6 | 113.19 | 34.01 | 61.65 – 85.55 |
| 2035 | 73.93 | 129.91 | 17.94 | 53.53 – 94.32 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.37(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.01 | 11.26 | -5 | 1.13 – 4.89 |
| 2028 | 3.58 | 17.88 | -5 | 0.24 – 6.92 |
| 2030 | 4.15 | 22.61 | -5 | -0.27 – 8.57 |
| 2035 | 5.58 | 31.68 | -5 | -1.1 – 12.26 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.7(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.5 | 11.41 | -4.97 | 1.7 – 5.31 |
| 2029 | 3.32 | 17.01 | -5 | 0.12 – 6.51 |
| 2031 | 3.25 | 20.92 | -5 | -0.93 – 7.43 |
| 2036 | 3.21 | 28.21 | -5 | -2.84 – 9.27 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.13(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21.05 | 22.9 | 19.44 | 20.39 – 21.7 |
| 2028 | 20.97 | 24.18 | 18.19 | 19.42 – 22.52 |
| 2030 | 20.9 | 25.04 | 17.3 | 18.52 – 23.27 |
| 2035 | 20.71 | 26.57 | 15.63 | 16.41 – 25 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.1m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.1m | 2.2m | 2m | 2.1m – 2.2m |
| 2028 | 2.1m | 2.2m | 2m | 2m – 2.3m |
| 2030 | 2.1m | 2.2m | 2m | 1.9m – 2.4m |
| 2035 | 2.1m | 2.2m | 2.1m | 1.7m – 2.6m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.75(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.74 | 13.4 | -8.75 | -0.86 – 2.34 |
| 2028 | 0.59 | 15 | -10 | -2.19 – 3.38 |
| 2030 | 0.45 | 15 | -10 | -3.17 – 4.06 |
| 2035 | 0.08 | 15 | -10 | -5.09 – 5.24 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.2bn | 3.8bn | 2.6bn | 3.1bn – 3.3bn |
| 2028 | 3.8bn | 4.9bn | 2.8bn | 3.5bn – 4.2bn |
| 2030 | 4.4bn | 5.8bn | 3.1bn | 3.9bn – 5bn |
| 2035 | 6bn | 7.9bn | 4.1bn | 4.7bn – 7.2bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.68(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.41 | 0.55 – 0.65 |
| 2028 | 0.51 | 0.72 | 0.3 | 0.43 – 0.59 |
| 2030 | 0.47 | 0.74 | 0.19 | 0.34 – 0.59 |
| 2035 | 0.43 | 0.82 | 0.04 | 0.21 – 0.65 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.9bn | 4.5bn | 3.2bn | 3.7bn – 4bn |
| 2028 | 4.7bn | 5.8bn | 3.5bn | 4.3bn – 5.1bn |
| 2030 | 5.5bn | 6.9bn | 4bn | 4.8bn – 6.1bn |
| 2035 | 7.5bn | 9.6bn | 5.4bn | 5.9bn – 9.1bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.18(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.82 | 3.34 | 2.3 | 2.69 – 2.94 |
| 2028 | 2.11 | 3 | 1.21 | 1.87 – 2.34 |
| 2030 | 1.39 | 2.55 | 0.23 | 1.1 – 1.68 |
| 2035 | 0 | 1.64 | 0 | 0 – 0.41 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/SVN · API docs
