Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Slovenia: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 36/100); the economy is in expansion; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 22 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 1.73 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.28, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment +0.26) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-05-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-06-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-07-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-14% skill vs naive; realized ±6.5953 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Slovenia: forward projections across 17 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed3.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.81 | 8.87 | -3.24 | 1.53 – 4.09 |
| 2029 | 2.03 | 12.52 | -8.46 | -0.21 – 4.27 |
| 2031 | 1.25 | 14.79 | -12.29 | -1.61 – 4.12 |
| 2036 | -0.69 | 18.46 | -19.84 | -4.76 – 3.38 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed78.64(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 78.17 | 92 | 66.18 | 74.94 – 81.39 |
| 2028 | 77.23 | 101.18 | 56.46 | 70.1 – 84.35 |
| 2030 | 76.28 | 107.21 | 49.48 | 65.76 – 86.8 |
| 2035 | 73.93 | 117.67 | 36.02 | 55.85 – 92 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed79.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 91bn | 99.4bn | 83.8bn | 88.2bn – 93.9bn |
| 2029 | 102bn | 116.5bn | 89.4bn | 94.4bn – 109.5bn |
| 2031 | 112.9bn | 131.7bn | 96.7bn | 100.1bn – 125.7bn |
| 2036 | 140.3bn | 166.8bn | 117.3bn | 111.2bn – 169.4bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.06(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.73 | 6.58 | -2.47 | 0.9 – 2.57 |
| 2029 | 1.09 | 9.48 | -6.19 | -0.37 – 2.54 |
| 2031 | 0.44 | 11.28 | -8.96 | -1.45 – 2.32 |
| 2036 | -1.19 | 12 | -10 | -3.93 – 1.56 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed37.4k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 42.5k | 46.5k | 39.1k | 41.2k – 43.9k |
| 2029 | 47.5k | 54.4k | 41.5k | 44k – 51k |
| 2031 | 52.5k | 61.4k | 44.8k | 46.5k – 58.4k |
| 2036 | 64.9k | 77.5k | 54k | 51.4k – 78.3k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.36(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.89 | 5.23 | 0.38 | 2.27 – 3.51 |
| 2029 | 2.33 | 6.38 | 0 | 1.22 – 3.44 |
| 2031 | 2.05 | 7.28 | 0 | 0.6 – 3.51 |
| 2036 | 1.83 | 9.23 | 0 | 0 – 3.95 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed65.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 64.24 | 74.55 | 52.35 | 61.63 – 66.86 |
| 2029 | 62.33 | 80.19 | 41.73 | 56.59 – 68.07 |
| 2031 | 60.42 | 83.47 | 33.83 | 52.04 – 68.8 |
| 2036 | 55.64 | 88.24 | 18.03 | 41.72 – 69.56 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed73.28(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 73.34 | 91.04 | 55.64 | 69.46 – 77.22 |
| 2028 | 73.47 | 104.13 | 42.81 | 65.25 – 81.69 |
| 2030 | 73.6 | 113.19 | 34.01 | 61.65 – 85.55 |
| 2035 | 73.93 | 129.91 | 17.94 | 53.53 – 94.32 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.37(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.22 | 11.34 | -5 | 1.36 – 5.07 |
| 2029 | 3.95 | 18.02 | -5 | 0.65 – 7.26 |
| 2031 | 4.69 | 22.86 | -5 | 0.29 – 9.09 |
| 2036 | 6.54 | 32.22 | -5 | -0.2 – 13.28 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.06 | 10.94 | -5 | 1.26 – 4.85 |
| 2029 | 3.11 | 16.76 | -5 | -0.07 – 6.29 |
| 2031 | 3.13 | 20.75 | -5 | -1.03 – 7.29 |
| 2036 | 3.14 | 28.06 | -5 | -2.89 – 9.17 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.13(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21.05 | 22.9 | 19.44 | 20.39 – 21.7 |
| 2028 | 20.97 | 24.18 | 18.19 | 19.42 – 22.52 |
| 2030 | 20.9 | 25.04 | 17.3 | 18.52 – 23.27 |
| 2035 | 20.71 | 26.57 | 15.63 | 16.41 – 25 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.1m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.1m | 2.2m | 2m | 2.1m – 2.2m |
| 2029 | 2.1m | 2.2m | 2m | 2m – 2.3m |
| 2031 | 2.1m | 2.2m | 2m | 1.9m – 2.4m |
| 2036 | 2.2m | 2.3m | 2.1m | 1.7m – 2.6m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.75(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.74 | 13.4 | -8.75 | -0.86 – 2.34 |
| 2028 | 0.59 | 15 | -10 | -2.19 – 3.38 |
| 2030 | 0.45 | 15 | -10 | -3.17 – 4.06 |
| 2035 | 0.08 | 15 | -10 | -5.09 – 5.24 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.2bn | 3.8bn | 2.6bn | 3.1bn – 3.3bn |
| 2028 | 3.8bn | 4.9bn | 2.8bn | 3.5bn – 4.2bn |
| 2030 | 4.4bn | 5.8bn | 3.1bn | 3.9bn – 5bn |
| 2035 | 6bn | 7.9bn | 4.1bn | 4.7bn – 7.2bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.68(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.41 | 0.55 – 0.65 |
| 2028 | 0.51 | 0.72 | 0.3 | 0.43 – 0.59 |
| 2030 | 0.47 | 0.74 | 0.19 | 0.34 – 0.59 |
| 2035 | 0.43 | 0.82 | 0.04 | 0.21 – 0.65 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.9bn | 4.5bn | 3.2bn | 3.7bn – 4bn |
| 2028 | 4.7bn | 5.8bn | 3.5bn | 4.3bn – 5.1bn |
| 2030 | 5.5bn | 6.9bn | 4bn | 4.8bn – 6.1bn |
| 2035 | 7.5bn | 9.6bn | 5.4bn | 5.9bn – 9.1bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.18(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.71 | 4.72 | 2.7 | 3.5 – 3.92 |
| 2029 | 3.33 | 5.08 | 1.58 | 2.9 – 3.75 |
| 2031 | 2.95 | 5.2 | 0.69 | 2.36 – 3.53 |
| 2036 | 1.99 | 5.18 | 0 | 1.18 – 2.8 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/SVN · API docs
