Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Sweden: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 35/100); the economy is in expansion; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 21 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 2.14 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.30, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment +0.28) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-05-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-06-01
ECB Data Portal API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-3% skill vs naive; realized ±4.7777 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Sweden: forward projections across 16 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed5.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.38 | 7.94 | 2.82 | 4.77 – 5.99 |
| 2029 | 5.55 | 9.99 | 1.11 | 4.38 – 6.72 |
| 2031 | 5.72 | 11.44 | -0.01 | 4.09 – 7.34 |
| 2036 | 6.13 | 14.23 | -1.96 | 3.5 – 8.77 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed53.23(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 54.68 | 61.49 | 48.77 | 52.83 – 56.52 |
| 2028 | 57.57 | 69.37 | 47.35 | 53.12 – 62.02 |
| 2030 | 60.47 | 75.7 | 47.27 | 53.45 – 67.48 |
| 2035 | 67.71 | 89.25 | 49.04 | 53.66 – 81.75 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed669bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 798.3bn | 900.8bn | 709.5bn | 773.4bn – 823.3bn |
| 2029 | 891.9bn | 1.1T | 738.1bn | 825.9bn – 957.9bn |
| 2031 | 985.4bn | 1.2T | 786.9bn | 873.6bn – 1.1T |
| 2036 | 1.2T | 1.5T | 938.5bn | 966.4bn – 1.5T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.54(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.14 | 6.1 | -1.29 | 1.45 – 2.84 |
| 2029 | 2.44 | 9.31 | -3.5 | 1.18 – 3.71 |
| 2031 | 2.75 | 11.61 | -4.93 | 1.05 – 4.45 |
| 2036 | 3.51 | 12 | -7.35 | 0.86 – 6.16 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed63.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 73.8k | 83.4k | 65.6k | 71.5k – 76.2k |
| 2029 | 81.8k | 98.3k | 67.4k | 75.7k – 87.8k |
| 2031 | 89.7k | 111.1k | 71.1k | 79.5k – 99.9k |
| 2036 | 109.5k | 139.7k | 83.3k | 86.8k – 132.2k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed36.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 35.99 | 41.04 | 30.17 | 34.64 – 37.35 |
| 2029 | 34.58 | 43.33 | 24.49 | 31.57 – 37.59 |
| 2031 | 33.17 | 44.46 | 20.14 | 28.78 – 37.56 |
| 2036 | 29.63 | 45.6 | 11.21 | 22.43 – 36.83 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed51.11(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 52.62 | 60.36 | 44.88 | 50.6 – 54.65 |
| 2028 | 55.66 | 69.06 | 42.25 | 50.93 – 60.38 |
| 2030 | 58.69 | 76 | 41.38 | 51.35 – 66.03 |
| 2035 | 66.27 | 90.75 | 41.8 | 51.92 – 80.62 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.68(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.16 | 10.1 | -5 | 0.37 – 3.95 |
| 2029 | 3.31 | 17.05 | -5 | 0.1 – 6.51 |
| 2031 | 4.46 | 22.2 | -5 | 0.17 – 8.75 |
| 2036 | 7.33 | 32.42 | -5 | 0.59 – 14.06 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.72 | 9.64 | -5 | -0.06 – 3.5 |
| 2029 | 2.41 | 16.14 | -5 | -0.75 – 5.57 |
| 2031 | 2.66 | 20.38 | -5 | -1.48 – 6.8 |
| 2036 | 2.79 | 27.85 | -5 | -3.21 – 8.79 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed25.23(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 25.2 | 26.53 | 24.06 | 24.42 – 25.99 |
| 2028 | 25.2 | 27.01 | 23.63 | 23.33 – 27.06 |
| 2030 | 25.19 | 27.53 | 23.17 | 22.33 – 28.05 |
| 2035 | 25.17 | 28.48 | 22.31 | 19.95 – 30.4 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.6m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 10.8m | 11.3m | 10.3m | 10.4m – 11.1m |
| 2029 | 10.9m | 11.5m | 10.5m | 10.1m – 11.8m |
| 2031 | 11.1m | 11.6m | 10.6m | 9.9m – 12.4m |
| 2036 | 11.6m | 12.1m | 11.1m | 9.2m – 14m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.49(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.08 | 10.78 | -4.44 | 0.96 – 3.2 |
| 2028 | 3.34 | 15 | -7.96 | 1.29 – 5.38 |
| 2030 | 4.59 | 15 | -9.99 | 1.79 – 7.39 |
| 2035 | 7.73 | 15 | -10 | 3.05 – 12.4 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed56.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 56.4bn | 63.8bn | 49bn | 54.4bn – 58.4bn |
| 2028 | 56.5bn | 69.3bn | 43.6bn | 51.8bn – 61.1bn |
| 2030 | 56.5bn | 73.1bn | 40bn | 49.5bn – 63.6bn |
| 2035 | 56.7bn | 80.1bn | 33.3bn | 44bn – 69.4bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.14(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.21 | 2.64 | 1.77 | 2.11 – 2.31 |
| 2028 | 2.29 | 3.04 | 1.53 | 2.06 – 2.51 |
| 2030 | 2.32 | 3.3 | 1.35 | 1.99 – 2.66 |
| 2035 | 2.36 | 3.74 | 0.97 | 1.77 – 2.94 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed74.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 76bn | 85.9bn | 66.2bn | 73.3bn – 78.8bn |
| 2028 | 81.1bn | 98.2bn | 64.1bn | 74.6bn – 87.6bn |
| 2030 | 86.3bn | 108.2bn | 64.3bn | 76bn – 96.5bn |
| 2035 | 99bn | 130.1bn | 68bn | 78.4bn – 119.6bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.69(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 8.7 | 10.13 | 7.27 | 8.34 – 9.06 |
| 2029 | 8.91 | 11.39 | 6.43 | 8.1 – 9.72 |
| 2031 | 9.12 | 12.32 | 5.91 | 7.9 – 10.33 |
| 2036 | 9.63 | 14.16 | 5.1 | 7.4 – 11.86 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/SWE · API docs
