Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Eswatini: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 38/100); the economy is in expansion; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 4.66 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.24, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.24) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2019-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-4% skill vs naive; realized ±0.6608 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Eswatini: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-1.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -1.13 | 5.87 | -8.12 | -2.57 – 0.32 |
| 2028 | -2.18 | 9.94 | -14.29 | -4.75 – 0.4 |
| 2030 | -3.23 | 12.41 | -18.86 | -6.67 – 0.22 |
| 2035 | -5.85 | 16.27 | -27.97 | -11.3 – -0.4 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed53.76(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 55.1 | 60.73 | 50.22 | 53.39 – 56.8 |
| 2027 | 57.78 | 67.53 | 49.32 | 53.5 – 62.05 |
| 2029 | 60.46 | 73.05 | 49.54 | 53.59 – 67.32 |
| 2034 | 67.16 | 84.96 | 51.72 | 53.22 – 81.09 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.3bn | 6bn | 4.6bn | 5.1bn – 5.4bn |
| 2028 | 5.5bn | 6.7bn | 4.4bn | 5.1bn – 5.9bn |
| 2030 | 5.7bn | 7.3bn | 4.3bn | 5.1bn – 6.4bn |
| 2035 | 6.3bn | 8.6bn | 4.4bn | 5bn – 7.6bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.19(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.66 | 12 | -2.04 | 3.3 – 6.02 |
| 2028 | 5.84 | 12 | -5.77 | 3.32 – 8.35 |
| 2030 | 7.01 | 12 | -7.97 | 3.57 – 10.45 |
| 2035 | 9.95 | 12 | -10 | 4.28 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.1k | 4.7k | 3.6k | 4k – 4.3k |
| 2028 | 4.3k | 5.3k | 3.4k | 3.9k – 4.6k |
| 2030 | 4.4k | 5.7k | 3.2k | 3.9k – 4.9k |
| 2035 | 4.6k | 6.5k | 3k | 3.7k – 5.6k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed50(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 47.59 | 52.03 | 42.46 | 46.11 – 49.06 |
| 2028 | 52.96 | 60.65 | 44.08 | 49.04 – 56.87 |
| 2030 | 58.33 | 68.26 | 46.86 | 51.7 – 64.95 |
| 2035 | 71.75 | 85.81 | 55.54 | 56.87 – 86.64 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed53.72(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 55.23 | 60.15 | 50.31 | 53.52 – 56.94 |
| 2027 | 58.24 | 66.76 | 49.73 | 53.93 – 62.55 |
| 2029 | 61.26 | 72.25 | 50.26 | 54.3 – 68.21 |
| 2034 | 68.79 | 84.33 | 53.24 | 54.52 – 83.06 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.6(2019)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.81 | 4.32 | 1.2 | 2.43 – 3.19 |
| 2028 | 1.55 | 4.16 | -1.24 | 0.9 – 2.2 |
| 2030 | 0.29 | 3.66 | -3.32 | -0.54 – 1.12 |
| 2035 | -2.86 | 1.9 | -5 | -4.37 – -1.35 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16.07(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 15.88 | 19.46 | 12.77 | 15.11 – 16.64 |
| 2027 | 15.46 | 21.67 | 10.08 | 13.83 – 17.09 |
| 2029 | 15.05 | 23.07 | 8.1 | 12.7 – 17.4 |
| 2034 | 14.01 | 25.35 | 4.18 | 10.15 – 17.87 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.3m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.3m | 1.3m | 1.2m | 1.2m – 1.3m |
| 2028 | 1.3m | 1.3m | 1.2m | 1.2m – 1.4m |
| 2030 | 1.3m | 1.3m | 1.2m | 1.1m – 1.4m |
| 2035 | 1.3m | 1.4m | 1.3m | 1m – 1.6m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.87(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.83 | 8.08 | -2.87 | 1.01 – 2.64 |
| 2028 | 1.65 | 12.48 | -6.48 | 0.21 – 3.08 |
| 2030 | 1.47 | 15 | -9.02 | -0.4 – 3.33 |
| 2035 | 1.02 | 15 | -10 | -1.61 – 3.66 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed536.6m(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 530.1m | 687.4m | 372.8m | 497.6m – 562.7m |
| 2027 | 521.2m | 793.6m | 248.8m | 454.5m – 587.9m |
| 2029 | 512.2m | 863.9m | 160.5m | 417.4m – 607m |
| 2034 | 489.8m | 987.2m | 0 | 335.3m – 644.3m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.91(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2.09 | 3.04 | 1.13 | 1.91 – 2.27 |
| 2027 | 2.3 | 3.95 | 0.65 | 1.93 – 2.66 |
| 2029 | 2.4 | 4.53 | 0.27 | 1.88 – 2.92 |
| 2034 | 2.48 | 5.5 | 0 | 1.63 – 3.34 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed536.6m(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 530.1m | 687.4m | 372.8m | 497.6m – 562.7m |
| 2027 | 521.2m | 793.6m | 248.8m | 454.5m – 587.9m |
| 2029 | 512.2m | 863.9m | 160.5m | 417.4m – 607m |
| 2034 | 489.8m | 987.2m | 0 | 335.3m – 644.3m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed34.2(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 34.37 | 37.15 | 31.58 | 33.3 – 35.43 |
| 2028 | 34.69 | 39.52 | 29.86 | 32.13 – 37.26 |
| 2030 | 35.02 | 40 | 28.78 | 31.04 – 39 |
| 2035 | 35.84 | 40 | 27.02 | 28.4 – 40 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/SWZ · API docs
