Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Eswatini: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 48/100); the economy is in slowdown; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 4.36 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.04, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment +0.14) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2019-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-4% skill vs naive; realized ±4.926 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Eswatini: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-1.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -2.68 | 3.98 | -9.35 | -4.09 – -1.28 |
| 2029 | -4.45 | 7.09 | -15.99 | -7.02 – -1.88 |
| 2031 | -6.22 | 8.68 | -21.12 | -9.76 – -2.68 |
| 2036 | -10.65 | 10.43 | -30 | -16.65 – -4.64 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed53.76(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 55.1 | 60.73 | 50.22 | 53.39 – 56.8 |
| 2027 | 57.78 | 67.53 | 49.32 | 53.5 – 62.05 |
| 2029 | 60.46 | 73.05 | 49.54 | 53.59 – 67.32 |
| 2034 | 67.16 | 84.96 | 51.72 | 53.22 – 81.09 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 6bn | 6.8bn | 5.3bn | 5.8bn – 6.2bn |
| 2029 | 6.6bn | 8bn | 5.4bn | 6.1bn – 7.1bn |
| 2031 | 7.2bn | 9bn | 5.6bn | 6.4bn – 8bn |
| 2036 | 8.7bn | 11.2bn | 6.4bn | 6.9bn – 10.5bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.19(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.36 | 9.18 | 0.18 | 3.49 – 5.24 |
| 2029 | 5.17 | 12 | -2.06 | 3.53 – 6.81 |
| 2031 | 5.99 | 12 | -3.36 | 3.71 – 8.26 |
| 2036 | 8.02 | 12 | -5.2 | 4.19 – 11.84 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.1k | 6k | 4.4k | 5k – 5.3k |
| 2029 | 5.7k | 7.1k | 4.4k | 5.2k – 6.1k |
| 2031 | 6.2k | 8k | 4.6k | 5.5k – 6.9k |
| 2036 | 7.5k | 10.1k | 5.3k | 6k – 9.1k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed50(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 52.66 | 57.22 | 47.4 | 51.03 – 54.29 |
| 2029 | 57.98 | 65.87 | 48.87 | 53.69 – 62.27 |
| 2031 | 63.3 | 73.49 | 51.54 | 56.11 – 70.48 |
| 2036 | 76.59 | 91.01 | 59.96 | 60.71 – 92.48 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed53.72(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 55.23 | 60.15 | 50.31 | 53.52 – 56.94 |
| 2027 | 58.24 | 66.76 | 49.73 | 53.93 – 62.55 |
| 2029 | 61.26 | 72.25 | 50.26 | 54.3 – 68.21 |
| 2034 | 68.79 | 84.33 | 53.24 | 54.52 – 83.06 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.6(2019)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.76 | 5.33 | 2.08 | 3.35 – 4.17 |
| 2029 | 4.32 | 7.04 | 1.41 | 3.51 – 5.13 |
| 2031 | 4.88 | 8.39 | 1.12 | 3.71 – 6.05 |
| 2036 | 6.28 | 11.25 | 0.96 | 4.18 – 8.39 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16.07(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 15.88 | 19.46 | 12.77 | 15.11 – 16.64 |
| 2027 | 15.46 | 21.67 | 10.08 | 13.83 – 17.09 |
| 2029 | 15.05 | 23.07 | 8.1 | 12.7 – 17.4 |
| 2034 | 14.01 | 25.35 | 4.18 | 10.15 – 17.87 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.3m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.2m | 1.2m | 1.1m | 1.1m – 1.2m |
| 2029 | 1.1m | 1.2m | 986.7k | 995.5k – 1.2m |
| 2031 | 986.9k | 1.1m | 872.8k | 874.8k – 1.1m |
| 2036 | 766.4k | 940.1k | 605.1k | 607.4k – 925.4k |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.87(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.83 | 8.08 | -2.87 | 1.01 – 2.64 |
| 2028 | 1.65 | 12.48 | -6.48 | 0.21 – 3.08 |
| 2030 | 1.47 | 15 | -9.02 | -0.4 – 3.33 |
| 2035 | 1.02 | 15 | -10 | -1.61 – 3.66 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed536.6m(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 530.1m | 687.4m | 372.8m | 497.6m – 562.7m |
| 2027 | 521.2m | 793.6m | 248.8m | 454.5m – 587.9m |
| 2029 | 512.2m | 863.9m | 160.5m | 417.4m – 607m |
| 2034 | 489.8m | 987.2m | 0 | 335.3m – 644.3m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.91(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2.09 | 3.04 | 1.13 | 1.91 – 2.27 |
| 2027 | 2.3 | 3.95 | 0.65 | 1.93 – 2.66 |
| 2029 | 2.4 | 4.53 | 0.27 | 1.88 – 2.92 |
| 2034 | 2.48 | 5.5 | 0 | 1.63 – 3.34 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed536.6m(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 530.1m | 687.4m | 372.8m | 497.6m – 562.7m |
| 2027 | 521.2m | 793.6m | 248.8m | 454.5m – 587.9m |
| 2029 | 512.2m | 863.9m | 160.5m | 417.4m – 607m |
| 2034 | 489.8m | 987.2m | 0 | 335.3m – 644.3m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed34.2(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 34.37 | 37.15 | 31.58 | 33.3 – 35.43 |
| 2028 | 34.69 | 39.52 | 29.86 | 32.13 – 37.26 |
| 2030 | 35.02 | 40 | 28.78 | 31.04 – 39 |
| 2035 | 35.84 | 40 | 27.02 | 28.4 – 40 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/SWZ · API docs
