Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Sint Maarten (Dutch part): macro conditions look supportive (pressure 21/100); the economy is in expansion; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 6 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 3.97 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.58, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.10) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2017-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: weak track record (+7% skill vs naive; realized ±9.9973 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Sint Maarten (Dutch part): forward projections across 5 macro indicators, horizons 2018, 2020, 2022, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed1.9bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2bn | 2.2bn | 1.8bn | 1.9bn – 2bn |
| 2028 | 2.2bn | 2.6bn | 1.8bn | 2bn – 2.3bn |
| 2030 | 2.4bn | 2.9bn | 1.9bn | 2.1bn – 2.6bn |
| 2035 | 2.8bn | 3.6bn | 2.2bn | 2.3bn – 3.4bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.4(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.97 | 12 | -10 | 0.58 – 7.37 |
| 2028 | 5.22 | 12 | -10 | -0.81 – 11.25 |
| 2030 | 6.46 | 12 | -10 | -1.51 – 12 |
| 2035 | 9.58 | 12 | -10 | -2.5 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed43k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 44.3k | 50.3k | 39.1k | 42.9k – 45.7k |
| 2028 | 47.8k | 58.1k | 38.9k | 44.3k – 51.3k |
| 2030 | 51.3k | 64.6k | 39.7k | 45.5k – 57.1k |
| 2035 | 60k | 78.9k | 43.7k | 47.6k – 72.5k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.19(2017)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 3.09 | 5.78 | 0.22 | 2.45 – 3.74 |
| 2020 | 6.01 | 10.66 | 1.02 | 4.69 – 7.33 |
| 2022 | 8.92 | 14.93 | 2.48 | 6.87 – 10.96 |
| 2027 | 16.2 | 24.7 | 7.1 | 11.73 – 20.68 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed43.9k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 43.8k | 45.8k | 41.8k | 42.4k – 45.1k |
| 2028 | 44.4k | 46.5k | 42.4k | 41.1k – 47.7k |
| 2030 | 45k | 47.1k | 43k | 39.9k – 50.1k |
| 2035 | 46.6k | 48.8k | 44.6k | 36.9k – 56.3k |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/SXM · API docs
