Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Seychelles: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 45/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 16 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 0.99 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.10, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment +0.12) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2007-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
Headline reliability: weak track record (+2% skill vs naive; realized ±8.4632 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Seychelles: forward projections across 14 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-7.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -7.75 | 0.03 | -15.53 | -9.46 – -6.04 |
| 2029 | -7.66 | 5.82 | -21.13 | -10.77 – -4.54 |
| 2031 | -7.56 | 9.83 | -24.96 | -11.72 – -3.41 |
| 2036 | -7.32 | 17.28 | -30 | -13.52 – -1.13 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed79.62(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 79.7 | 99.48 | 62.55 | 75.6 – 83.8 |
| 2028 | 79.86 | 114.13 | 50.16 | 71.13 – 88.59 |
| 2030 | 80.02 | 124.26 | 41.68 | 67.3 – 92.74 |
| 2035 | 80.42 | 142.98 | 26.19 | 58.61 – 102.22 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.3bn | 2.9bn | 1.8bn | 2.2bn – 2.4bn |
| 2029 | 2.4bn | 3.5bn | 1.6bn | 2.2bn – 2.7bn |
| 2031 | 2.6bn | 3.9bn | 1.4bn | 2.2bn – 3bn |
| 2036 | 3bn | 4.8bn | 1.3bn | 2.3bn – 3.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.8(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 0.99 | 11.97 | -8.53 | -0.86 – 2.84 |
| 2029 | -0.36 | 12 | -10 | -3.58 – 2.86 |
| 2031 | -1.71 | 12 | -10 | -5.94 – 2.52 |
| 2036 | -5.08 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 1.53 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed19.4k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 17.8k | 22.5k | 13.7k | 16.9k – 18.6k |
| 2029 | 18k | 26.3k | 10.9k | 16.2k – 19.9k |
| 2031 | 18.3k | 28.9k | 9.1k | 15.5k – 21k |
| 2036 | 18.9k | 34k | 5.9k | 14.1k – 23.7k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed55(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 54.67 | 74.42 | 31.87 | 50.75 – 58.58 |
| 2029 | 54 | 88.22 | 14.51 | 46.14 – 61.85 |
| 2031 | 53.33 | 97.51 | 2.35 | 42.26 – 64.39 |
| 2036 | 51.65 | 114.13 | 0 | 33.78 – 69.53 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed92.67(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 92.79 | 107.12 | 78.47 | 89.12 – 96.47 |
| 2028 | 93.05 | 117.86 | 68.23 | 84.78 – 101.31 |
| 2030 | 93.3 | 125.33 | 61.26 | 80.93 – 105.67 |
| 2035 | 93.93 | 139.23 | 48.62 | 71.96 – 115.89 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.3(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.53 | 10.64 | -4.08 | 1.9 – 5.16 |
| 2029 | 6.76 | 19.06 | -5 | 3.7 – 9.81 |
| 2031 | 9.98 | 25.87 | -5 | 5.66 – 14.3 |
| 2036 | 18.04 | 40.51 | -5 | 10.17 – 25.91 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed18.71(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18.62 | 25.59 | 12.58 | 17.33 – 19.91 |
| 2028 | 18.19 | 30.25 | 7.73 | 15.59 – 20.78 |
| 2030 | 17.75 | 33.33 | 4.26 | 14.11 – 21.4 |
| 2035 | 16.67 | 38.7 | 0 | 10.86 – 22.48 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed122.7k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 126.6k | 138.3k | 115.8k | 122.7k – 130.5k |
| 2029 | 131.3k | 151.5k | 112.6k | 121.6k – 141k |
| 2031 | 136k | 162.1k | 111.8k | 120.6k – 151.5k |
| 2036 | 147.8k | 184.6k | 113.5k | 117.1k – 178.4k |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed773.7m(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 792.7m | 918m | 667.4m | 760.9m – 824.6m |
| 2027 | 848.2m | 1.1bn | 631.2m | 774.3m – 922.1m |
| 2029 | 903.7m | 1.2bn | 623.5m | 788.5m – 1bn |
| 2034 | 1bn | 1.4bn | 646.1m | 814.9m – 1.3bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.67(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3.67 | 5.07 | 2.26 | 3.39 – 3.94 |
| 2027 | 3.66 | 6.09 | 1.24 | 3.12 – 4.21 |
| 2029 | 3.66 | 6.8 | 0.53 | 2.89 – 4.44 |
| 2034 | 3.66 | 8.09 | 0 | 2.4 – 4.93 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed773.7m(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 792.7m | 918m | 667.4m | 760.9m – 824.6m |
| 2027 | 848.2m | 1.1bn | 631.2m | 774.3m – 922.1m |
| 2029 | 903.7m | 1.2bn | 623.5m | 788.5m – 1bn |
| 2034 | 1bn | 1.4bn | 646.1m | 814.9m – 1.3bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.53 | 3.54 | 1.52 | 2.33 – 2.72 |
| 2029 | 2.38 | 4.13 | 0.63 | 2 – 2.76 |
| 2031 | 2.23 | 4.49 | 0 | 1.7 – 2.75 |
| 2036 | 1.86 | 5.05 | 0 | 1.07 – 2.64 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/SYC · API docs
