Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Seychelles: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 20/100); the economy is in expansion; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 16 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 6.77 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.60, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.56) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2007-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
Headline reliability: weak track record (+2% skill vs naive; realized ±5.7748 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Seychelles: forward projections across 14 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-8.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -8.2 | -0.55 | -15.85 | -9.89 – -6.51 |
| 2028 | -9.2 | 4.05 | -22.45 | -12.35 – -6.05 |
| 2030 | -10.2 | 6.91 | -27.31 | -14.51 – -5.89 |
| 2035 | -12.7 | 11.5 | -30 | -19.67 – -5.73 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed79.62(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 79.7 | 99.48 | 62.55 | 75.6 – 83.8 |
| 2028 | 79.86 | 114.13 | 50.16 | 71.13 – 88.59 |
| 2030 | 80.02 | 124.26 | 41.68 | 67.3 – 92.74 |
| 2035 | 80.42 | 142.98 | 26.19 | 58.61 – 102.22 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.5bn | 3bn | 2bn | 2.4bn – 2.6bn |
| 2028 | 2.7bn | 3.7bn | 1.8bn | 2.5bn – 3bn |
| 2030 | 2.9bn | 4.2bn | 1.8bn | 2.5bn – 3.3bn |
| 2035 | 3.5bn | 5.3bn | 1.9bn | 2.7bn – 4.3bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.8(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.77 | 12 | -4.97 | 4.41 – 9.14 |
| 2028 | 9.14 | 12 | -10 | 4.79 – 12 |
| 2030 | 11.51 | 12 | -10 | 5.54 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 2.94 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed19.4k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 19.9k | 24.5k | 15.9k | 19k – 20.8k |
| 2028 | 21.1k | 29k | 14.2k | 19.1k – 23k |
| 2030 | 22.2k | 32.5k | 13.3k | 19.2k – 25.2k |
| 2035 | 25.1k | 39.6k | 12.5k | 19.4k – 30.9k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed52.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 50.75 | 71.58 | 26.71 | 46.73 – 54.77 |
| 2028 | 49.85 | 85.94 | 8.21 | 41.91 – 57.8 |
| 2030 | 48.95 | 95.54 | 0 | 37.87 – 60.03 |
| 2035 | 46.7 | 112.58 | 0 | 29.09 – 64.31 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed92.67(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 92.79 | 107.12 | 78.47 | 89.12 – 96.47 |
| 2028 | 93.05 | 117.86 | 68.23 | 84.78 – 101.31 |
| 2030 | 93.3 | 125.33 | 61.26 | 80.93 – 105.67 |
| 2035 | 93.93 | 139.23 | 48.62 | 71.96 – 115.89 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.3(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.31 | 11.03 | -5 | -2.09 – 2.7 |
| 2028 | 0.29 | 18.86 | -5 | -3.88 – 4.45 |
| 2030 | 0.27 | 24.24 | -5 | -5 – 5.66 |
| 2035 | 0.22 | 34.12 | -5 | -5 – 7.89 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed18.71(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18.62 | 25.59 | 12.58 | 17.33 – 19.91 |
| 2028 | 18.19 | 30.25 | 7.73 | 15.59 – 20.78 |
| 2030 | 17.75 | 33.33 | 4.26 | 14.11 – 21.4 |
| 2035 | 16.67 | 38.7 | 0 | 10.86 – 22.48 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed122.7k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 121.7k | 133.4k | 110.8k | 117.9k – 125.5k |
| 2028 | 123.2k | 143.5k | 104.3k | 114.1k – 132.3k |
| 2030 | 124.7k | 150.9k | 100.4k | 110.6k – 138.9k |
| 2035 | 128.5k | 165.6k | 94.1k | 101.8k – 155.1k |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed773.7m(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 792.7m | 918m | 667.4m | 760.9m – 824.6m |
| 2027 | 848.2m | 1.1bn | 631.2m | 774.3m – 922.1m |
| 2029 | 903.7m | 1.2bn | 623.5m | 788.5m – 1bn |
| 2034 | 1bn | 1.4bn | 646.1m | 814.9m – 1.3bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.67(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3.67 | 5.07 | 2.26 | 3.39 – 3.94 |
| 2027 | 3.66 | 6.09 | 1.24 | 3.12 – 4.21 |
| 2029 | 3.66 | 6.8 | 0.53 | 2.89 – 4.44 |
| 2034 | 3.66 | 8.09 | 0 | 2.4 – 4.93 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed773.7m(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 792.7m | 918m | 667.4m | 760.9m – 824.6m |
| 2027 | 848.2m | 1.1bn | 631.2m | 774.3m – 922.1m |
| 2029 | 903.7m | 1.2bn | 623.5m | 788.5m – 1bn |
| 2034 | 1bn | 1.4bn | 646.1m | 814.9m – 1.3bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.53 | 5.66 | 0 | 2.01 – 3.05 |
| 2028 | 2.39 | 7.82 | 0 | 1.45 – 3.34 |
| 2030 | 2.26 | 9.26 | 0 | 1 – 3.51 |
| 2035 | 1.91 | 11.82 | 0 | 0.09 – 3.74 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-11-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/SYC · API docs
