Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Syria: macro conditions look cautious (pressure 66/100); the economy is in contraction; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at -0.47 for 2023.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as cautious (sentiment -0.32, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2023: cautious (projected sentiment -0.26) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Contraction
as of 2010-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2010-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2019-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2010-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2010-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2010-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-2% skill vs naive; realized ±5.6401 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Syria: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2011, 2013, 2015, 2020, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2032, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-2.8(2010)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | -2.37 | 2.19 | -6.92 | -3.33 – -1.4 |
| 2013 | -1.5 | 6.39 | -9.39 | -3.18 – 0.18 |
| 2015 | -0.63 | 9.56 | -10.82 | -2.79 – 1.53 |
| 2020 | 1.53 | 15.94 | -12.88 | -1.65 – 4.72 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.78(2022)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 5.51 | 15.07 | 0 | 4.05 – 6.96 |
| 2025 | 2.97 | 19.53 | 0 | 0.46 – 5.48 |
| 2027 | 0.43 | 21.81 | 0 | 0 – 3.57 |
| 2032 | 0 | 30.24 | 0 | 0 – 4.48 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed23.7bn(2022)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 24bn | 36.1bn | 13.4bn | 22.1bn – 25.8bn |
| 2025 | 25.2bn | 46.2bn | 6.9bn | 21.4bn – 28.9bn |
| 2027 | 26.4bn | 53.5bn | 2.8bn | 21bn – 31.7bn |
| 2032 | 29.4bn | 67.8bn | 0 | 20.1bn – 38.6bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-0.2(2022)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | -0.47 | 2.38 | -2.94 | -0.96 – 0.02 |
| 2025 | -1.11 | 3.82 | -5.38 | -1.99 – -0.24 |
| 2027 | -1.75 | 4.62 | -7.27 | -2.95 – -0.55 |
| 2032 | -3.35 | 5.65 | -10 | -5.39 – -1.32 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.1k(2022)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 1k | 1.6k | 539.78 | 959.04 – 1.1k |
| 2025 | 1k | 2.1k | 171.05 | 875.96 – 1.2k |
| 2027 | 1k | 2.4k | 0 | 808.64 – 1.3k |
| 2032 | 1.1k | 2.9k | 0 | 663.15 – 1.4k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed30(2010)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 15.24 | 48.98 | 0 | 9.8 – 20.67 |
| 2013 | 0 | 58.45 | 0 | 0 – 9.04 |
| 2015 | 0 | 75.45 | 0 | 0 – 11.69 |
| 2020 | 0 | 106.71 | 0 | 0 – 16.58 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.66(2022)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 27.4 | 45.48 | 9.32 | 24.2 – 30.61 |
| 2025 | 24.88 | 56.2 | 0 | 18.9 – 30.87 |
| 2027 | 22.37 | 62.79 | 0 | 14.39 – 30.34 |
| 2032 | 16.07 | 73.24 | 0 | 4.75 – 27.4 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed13.42(2019)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 20.61 | 50 | -5 | 10.91 – 30.31 |
| 2022 | 38.08 | 50 | -5 | 20.01 – 50 |
| 2024 | 50 | 50 | -5 | 25.04 – 50 |
| 2029 | 50 | 50 | -5 | 12.36 – 50 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.44(2022)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 3.69 | 7.44 | 0.44 | 3.09 – 4.28 |
| 2025 | 1.73 | 8.23 | 0 | 0.72 – 2.74 |
| 2027 | 0 | 8.39 | 0 | 0 – 1.28 |
| 2032 | 0 | 11.87 | 0 | 0 – 1.86 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed25.6m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 25.3m | 26.5m | 24.2m | 24.6m – 26.1m |
| 2028 | 26.4m | 27.6m | 25.2m | 24.4m – 28.3m |
| 2030 | 27.4m | 28.8m | 26.1m | 24.3m – 30.5m |
| 2035 | 30m | 32m | 28.2m | 23.8m – 36.3m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-10.15(2022)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | -10 | 1.95 | -10 | -10 – -8.35 |
| 2025 | -10 | 10.7 | -10 | -10 – -6.93 |
| 2027 | -10 | 15 | -10 | -10 – -5.86 |
| 2032 | -10 | 15 | -10 | -10 – -3.67 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed19.5bn(2010)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 20.6bn | 32.2bn | 9bn | 18.5bn – 22.7bn |
| 2013 | 23.6bn | 43.8bn | 3.5bn | 19.4bn – 27.8bn |
| 2015 | 26.7bn | 52.7bn | 643.6m | 20.5bn – 32.8bn |
| 2020 | 34.2bn | 71bn | 0 | 23.1bn – 45.3bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.66(2010)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 10.62 | 21.63 | 0 | 8.77 – 12.48 |
| 2013 | 9.39 | 28.46 | 0 | 6.03 – 12.76 |
| 2015 | 8.79 | 33.4 | 0 | 4.32 – 13.26 |
| 2020 | 8.31 | 36 | 0 | 1.65 – 14.96 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20.6bn(2010)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 21.9bn | 33.5bn | 10.3bn | 19.7bn – 24bn |
| 2013 | 25.2bn | 45.3bn | 5.1bn | 20.9bn – 29.5bn |
| 2015 | 28.5bn | 54.5bn | 2.5bn | 22.2bn – 34.8bn |
| 2020 | 36.8bn | 73.5bn | 68.5m | 25.3bn – 48.3bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed13.57(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 13.21 | 14.54 | 11.87 | 12.79 – 13.62 |
| 2028 | 12.49 | 14.8 | 10.18 | 11.54 – 13.44 |
| 2030 | 11.77 | 14.75 | 8.79 | 10.37 – 13.17 |
| 2035 | 9.97 | 14.18 | 5.75 | 7.73 – 12.21 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/SYR · API docs
