Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Turks and Caicos Islands: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 13/100); the economy is in slowdown; 5 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 4.44 for 2025.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.74, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2025: supportive (projected sentiment +0.86) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: moderate track record (+37% skill vs naive; realized ±17.8695 over 17) · a track record, not a guarantee
Turks and Caicos Islands: forward projections across 4 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed1.7bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1.9bn | 2.3bn | 1.4bn | 1.8bn – 1.9bn |
| 2027 | 2.1bn | 3bn | 1.4bn | 1.9bn – 2.3bn |
| 2029 | 2.4bn | 3.5bn | 1.4bn | 2.1bn – 2.7bn |
| 2034 | 3bn | 4.6bn | 1.7bn | 2.4bn – 3.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.64(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 4.44 | 12 | -10 | -7.59 – 12 |
| 2027 | 2.03 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 12 |
| 2029 | -0.38 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 12 |
| 2034 | -6.4 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed37.5k(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 39.5k | 50.7k | 29.8k | 37.5k – 41.4k |
| 2027 | 44.3k | 63.7k | 27.5k | 39.8k – 48.7k |
| 2029 | 49.1k | 74.1k | 27.4k | 42.2k – 56k |
| 2034 | 61.1k | 96.5k | 30.4k | 47.1k – 75k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed46.9k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 46.7k | 48.9k | 44.7k | 45.3k – 48.2k |
| 2028 | 47.1k | 49.3k | 45k | 43.6k – 50.6k |
| 2030 | 47.4k | 49.7k | 45.3k | 42k – 52.8k |
| 2035 | 48.3k | 51.6k | 45.3k | 38.3k – 58.3k |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/TCA · API docs
