Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Chad: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 16/100); the economy is in slowdown; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 5.53 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.68, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: supportive (projected sentiment +0.62) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 1994-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: weak track record (+3% skill vs naive; realized ±6.9626 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Chad: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 1995, 1997, 1999, 2004, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed0.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.29 | 7.59 | -5.01 | -0.02 – 2.6 |
| 2029 | 2.27 | 13.18 | -8.65 | -0.07 – 4.6 |
| 2031 | 3.25 | 17.34 | -10.84 | 0.11 – 6.38 |
| 2036 | 5.69 | 25.62 | -14.23 | 0.72 – 10.67 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed29.41(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 30.22 | 37.28 | 24.1 | 28.73 – 31.71 |
| 2028 | 31.82 | 44.05 | 21.23 | 28.55 – 35.1 |
| 2030 | 33.43 | 49.22 | 19.75 | 28.5 – 38.36 |
| 2035 | 37.45 | 59.77 | 18.1 | 28.27 – 46.63 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 27.2bn | 29.8bn | 24.9bn | 26.3bn – 28bn |
| 2029 | 31.1bn | 35.6bn | 27.2bn | 28.8bn – 33.4bn |
| 2031 | 35bn | 40.8bn | 30bn | 31bn – 39bn |
| 2036 | 44.8bn | 53bn | 37.7bn | 35.5bn – 54.1bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.59(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.53 | 8.7 | 2.79 | 4.92 – 6.15 |
| 2029 | 6.34 | 11.83 | 1.58 | 5.12 – 7.56 |
| 2031 | 7.14 | 12 | 1 | 5.39 – 8.89 |
| 2036 | 9.14 | 12 | 0.46 | 6.01 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.4k | 1.6k | 1.2k | 1.3k – 1.4k |
| 2029 | 1.5k | 1.9k | 1.2k | 1.4k – 1.7k |
| 2031 | 1.7k | 2.2k | 1.3k | 1.5k – 1.9k |
| 2036 | 2.1k | 2.8k | 1.6k | 1.7k – 2.6k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed29.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 28.81 | 36.1 | 20.41 | 27.23 – 30.39 |
| 2029 | 26.64 | 39.25 | 12.08 | 23.42 – 29.86 |
| 2031 | 24.46 | 40.75 | 5.67 | 20 – 28.93 |
| 2036 | 19.03 | 42.06 | 0 | 12.44 – 25.62 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16.72(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16.01 | 18.54 | 13.48 | 15.37 – 16.65 |
| 2028 | 14.59 | 18.97 | 10.21 | 13.22 – 15.96 |
| 2030 | 13.17 | 18.83 | 7.51 | 11.25 – 15.09 |
| 2035 | 9.62 | 17.62 | 1.62 | 6.86 – 12.38 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-3.91(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.41 | 17.93 | -5 | 0.14 – 6.69 |
| 2029 | 9.59 | 34.73 | -5 | 3.56 – 15.62 |
| 2031 | 15.77 | 48.22 | -5 | 7.31 – 24.22 |
| 2036 | 31.21 | 50 | -5 | 16.04 – 46.38 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16.39(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16.49 | 20.23 | 13.25 | 15.69 – 17.28 |
| 2028 | 16.62 | 23.1 | 11.01 | 14.9 – 18.35 |
| 2030 | 16.76 | 25.12 | 9.51 | 14.22 – 19.29 |
| 2035 | 17.1 | 28.92 | 6.85 | 12.68 – 21.53 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 19.1m | 20.4m | 17.8m | 18.5m – 19.6m |
| 2029 | 17.4m | 19.7m | 15.3m | 16.1m – 18.7m |
| 2031 | 15.7m | 18.7m | 13m | 13.9m – 17.5m |
| 2036 | 11.6m | 15.8m | 7.7m | 9.2m – 14m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.12(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.57 | 8.14 | -1.6 | 1.84 – 3.31 |
| 2028 | 3.88 | 13.52 | -3.35 | 2.49 – 5.27 |
| 2030 | 5.19 | 15 | -4.15 | 3.22 – 7.16 |
| 2035 | 8.45 | 15 | -4.75 | 4.9 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.5bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1.8bn | 2.4bn | 1.2bn | 1.7bn – 1.9bn |
| 2027 | 2.5bn | 3.5bn | 1.4bn | 2.2bn – 2.7bn |
| 2029 | 3.1bn | 4.4bn | 1.8bn | 2.7bn – 3.6bn |
| 2034 | 4.7bn | 6.6bn | 2.9bn | 3.7bn – 5.8bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.27(1994)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1995 | 2.19 | 3.85 | 0.53 | 1.9 – 2.48 |
| 1997 | 2.1 | 4.97 | 0 | 1.56 – 2.64 |
| 1999 | 2.05 | 5.77 | 0 | 1.32 – 2.79 |
| 2004 | 2.02 | 7.27 | 0 | 0.89 – 3.14 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.5bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1.8bn | 2.4bn | 1.2bn | 1.7bn – 1.9bn |
| 2027 | 2.5bn | 3.5bn | 1.4bn | 2.2bn – 2.7bn |
| 2029 | 3.1bn | 4.4bn | 1.8bn | 2.7bn – 3.6bn |
| 2034 | 4.7bn | 6.6bn | 2.9bn | 3.7bn – 5.8bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.06(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.92 | 1.26 | 0.59 | 0.86 – 0.99 |
| 2028 | 0.66 | 1.24 | 0.08 | 0.52 – 0.8 |
| 2030 | 0.39 | 1.15 | 0 | 0.2 – 0.59 |
| 2035 | 0 | 1.07 | 0 | 0 – 0.32 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/TCD · API docs
