Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
East Asia & Pacific (IDA & IBRD countries): macro conditions look supportive (pressure 22/100); the economy is in slowdown; 15 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 4.95 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.56, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.62) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2020-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-5% skill vs naive; realized ±3.4915 over 25) · a track record, not a guarantee
East Asia & Pacific (IDA & IBRD countries): forward projections across 11 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed25.52(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 25.96 | 28.17 | 24.04 | 25.15 – 26.76 |
| 2028 | 26.83 | 30.66 | 23.51 | 24.84 – 28.81 |
| 2030 | 27.7 | 32.65 | 23.41 | 24.56 – 30.85 |
| 2035 | 29.89 | 36.88 | 23.82 | 23.69 – 36.09 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed23.2T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23.8T | 26T | 21.8T | 23T – 24.5T |
| 2028 | 25.2T | 29.1T | 21.8T | 23.3T – 27.1T |
| 2030 | 26.6T | 31.6T | 22.3T | 23.6T – 29.7T |
| 2035 | 30.2T | 37.3T | 24.1T | 24T – 36.5T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.94(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.95 | 12 | -1.27 | 3.68 – 6.23 |
| 2028 | 5 | 12 | -5.78 | 2.69 – 7.32 |
| 2030 | 5.06 | 12 | -8.86 | 1.98 – 8.14 |
| 2035 | 5.19 | 12 | -10 | 0.57 – 9.8 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11.2k | 12.3k | 10.3k | 10.9k – 11.6k |
| 2028 | 11.9k | 13.7k | 10.3k | 11k – 12.7k |
| 2030 | 12.5k | 14.9k | 10.4k | 11.1k – 13.9k |
| 2035 | 14.1k | 17.5k | 11.2k | 11.2k – 17.1k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.83(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21.91 | 24.03 | 19.79 | 21.23 – 22.59 |
| 2028 | 22.08 | 25.76 | 18.4 | 20.45 – 23.72 |
| 2030 | 22.25 | 27 | 17.5 | 19.72 – 24.78 |
| 2035 | 22.67 | 29.39 | 15.96 | 17.97 – 27.38 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.91(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.1 | 6.57 | -2.69 | 1.08 – 3.13 |
| 2028 | 1.69 | 9.44 | -5 | -0.11 – 3.49 |
| 2030 | 1.28 | 11.28 | -5 | -1.04 – 3.6 |
| 2035 | 0.25 | 14.4 | -5 | -3.04 – 3.55 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed37.66(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 37.31 | 39.27 | 35.61 | 36.15 – 38.47 |
| 2027 | 36.4 | 38.31 | 34.74 | 33.7 – 39.09 |
| 2029 | 35.48 | 37.9 | 33.38 | 31.45 – 39.51 |
| 2034 | 33.19 | 36.62 | 30.22 | 26.3 – 40.07 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.1bn | 2.2bn | 2bn | 2.1bn – 2.2bn |
| 2028 | 2.1bn | 2.2bn | 2bn | 2bn – 2.3bn |
| 2030 | 2.1bn | 2.2bn | 2bn | 1.9bn – 2.4bn |
| 2035 | 2.1bn | 2.2bn | 2bn | 1.7bn – 2.6bn |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.58(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.77 | 8.16 | 2.23 | 4.27 – 5.27 |
| 2028 | 5.16 | 11.04 | 0.76 | 4.18 – 6.14 |
| 2030 | 5.56 | 13.14 | -0.13 | 4.16 – 6.95 |
| 2035 | 6.54 | 15 | -1.51 | 4.15 – 8.93 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.31(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11.42 | 14.11 | 8.72 | 10.82 – 12.01 |
| 2028 | 11.55 | 16.21 | 6.88 | 10.28 – 12.81 |
| 2030 | 11.61 | 17.64 | 5.58 | 9.76 – 13.46 |
| 2035 | 11.66 | 20.18 | 3.13 | 8.49 – 14.83 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.92(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.83 | 4.11 | 3.55 | 3.71 – 3.95 |
| 2028 | 3.65 | 4.13 | 3.17 | 3.38 – 3.92 |
| 2030 | 3.47 | 4.09 | 2.84 | 3.07 – 3.86 |
| 2035 | 3.01 | 3.89 | 2.13 | 2.38 – 3.63 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-01 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/TEA · API docs
