Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Europe & Central Asia (IDA & IBRD countries): macro conditions look balanced (pressure 44/100); the economy is in slowdown; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 15 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 2.69 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.12, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.14) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2020-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-5% skill vs naive; realized ±4.8365 over 25) · a track record, not a guarantee
Europe & Central Asia (IDA & IBRD countries): forward projections across 11 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed29.24(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 28.35 | 34.18 | 23.29 | 27.06 – 29.63 |
| 2028 | 26.56 | 36.67 | 17.81 | 23.85 – 29.28 |
| 2030 | 24.78 | 37.82 | 13.48 | 20.94 – 28.63 |
| 2035 | 20.33 | 38.77 | 4.35 | 14.44 – 26.22 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.1T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.5T | 8.3T | 6.8T | 7.3T – 7.7T |
| 2028 | 8.6T | 10T | 7.4T | 7.9T – 9.2T |
| 2030 | 9.6T | 11.4T | 8.1T | 8.5T – 10.7T |
| 2035 | 12.3T | 14.9T | 10.1T | 9.8T – 14.9T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.84(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.69 | 12 | -6.03 | 0.97 – 4.41 |
| 2028 | 2.35 | 12 | -10 | -0.66 – 5.37 |
| 2030 | 2.01 | 12 | -10 | -1.9 – 5.92 |
| 2035 | 1.16 | 12 | -10 | -4.32 – 6.65 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed15.3k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16.2k | 17.9k | 14.7k | 15.7k – 16.7k |
| 2028 | 18.5k | 21.5k | 15.9k | 17.1k – 19.8k |
| 2030 | 20.8k | 24.6k | 17.4k | 18.4k – 23.1k |
| 2035 | 26.5k | 31.9k | 21.7k | 21k – 32k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed29.74(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 29.39 | 32.17 | 26.62 | 28.48 – 30.3 |
| 2028 | 28.7 | 33.51 | 23.89 | 26.58 – 30.83 |
| 2030 | 28.01 | 34.22 | 21.8 | 24.82 – 31.2 |
| 2035 | 26.28 | 35.06 | 17.5 | 20.74 – 31.83 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.1(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.96 | 16.24 | -5 | 3.58 – 8.33 |
| 2028 | 7.18 | 24.98 | -5 | 2.88 – 11.47 |
| 2030 | 8.39 | 31.38 | -5 | 2.63 – 14.16 |
| 2035 | 11.44 | 43.96 | -5 | 2.4 – 20.48 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed24.25(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 24.7 | 26.95 | 22.75 | 23.94 – 25.47 |
| 2028 | 25.8 | 29.69 | 22.43 | 23.89 – 27.71 |
| 2030 | 26.9 | 31.92 | 22.54 | 23.84 – 29.95 |
| 2035 | 29.64 | 36.74 | 23.48 | 23.49 – 35.79 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed462.6m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 462.8m | 484.7m | 442.5m | 448.5m – 477.2m |
| 2028 | 465.6m | 487.7m | 445.2m | 431.2m – 500.1m |
| 2030 | 468.5m | 490.6m | 447.9m | 415.3m – 521.7m |
| 2035 | 475.6m | 498m | 454.7m | 376.9m – 574.2m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.64(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.46 | 8.02 | -1.71 | 1.72 – 3.19 |
| 2028 | 2.04 | 11.68 | -5.18 | 0.74 – 3.35 |
| 2030 | 1.63 | 14.07 | -7.7 | -0.05 – 3.32 |
| 2035 | 0.6 | 15 | -10 | -1.76 – 2.96 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.95(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.15 | 11.06 | 3.24 | 6.44 – 7.86 |
| 2028 | 8.58 | 15.36 | 1.8 | 7.13 – 10.03 |
| 2030 | 9.28 | 18.03 | 0.53 | 7.2 – 11.36 |
| 2035 | 9.84 | 22.21 | 0 | 6.37 – 13.31 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.62(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.06 | 4.76 | 3.36 | 3.89 – 4.23 |
| 2028 | 2.93 | 4.14 | 1.73 | 2.61 – 3.26 |
| 2030 | 1.81 | 3.37 | 0.25 | 1.43 – 2.19 |
| 2035 | 0 | 2.2 | 0 | 0 – 0.5 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/TEC · API docs
