Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Togo: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 35/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 16 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 4.58 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.30, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: supportive (projected sentiment +0.40) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2018-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: weak track record (+2% skill vs naive; realized ±2.5448 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Togo: forward projections across 12 macro indicators, horizons 2024, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2033, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-3.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -3.45 | -0.76 | -6.15 | -4.06 – -2.85 |
| 2029 | -3.96 | 0.71 | -8.64 | -5.11 – -2.82 |
| 2031 | -4.47 | 1.56 | -10.51 | -6.06 – -2.89 |
| 2036 | -5.75 | 2.78 | -14.28 | -8.41 – -3.09 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed24.58(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24.33 | 26.42 | 22.52 | 23.58 – 25.09 |
| 2026 | 23.83 | 27.45 | 20.7 | 22.07 – 25.6 |
| 2028 | 23.34 | 28 | 19.29 | 20.69 – 25.99 |
| 2033 | 22.09 | 28.69 | 16.37 | 17.51 – 26.67 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.9bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 14.3bn | 15.2bn | 13.5bn | 13.9bn – 14.8bn |
| 2029 | 16.5bn | 18.1bn | 15.1bn | 15.3bn – 17.7bn |
| 2031 | 18.7bn | 20.8bn | 16.9bn | 16.6bn – 20.8bn |
| 2036 | 24.2bn | 27.2bn | 21.6bn | 19.2bn – 29.2bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.31(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.58 | 6.26 | 3.11 | 4.22 – 4.93 |
| 2029 | 3.62 | 6.54 | 1.09 | 2.96 – 4.28 |
| 2031 | 2.67 | 6.44 | -0.6 | 1.83 – 3.51 |
| 2036 | 0.29 | 5.62 | -4.33 | -0.76 – 1.34 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.4k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.4k | 1.5k | 1.3k | 1.3k – 1.4k |
| 2029 | 1.5k | 1.7k | 1.3k | 1.4k – 1.6k |
| 2031 | 1.6k | 1.9k | 1.4k | 1.5k – 1.8k |
| 2036 | 2k | 2.4k | 1.6k | 1.6k – 2.4k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed64.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 65.72 | 70.74 | 59.91 | 63.68 – 67.75 |
| 2029 | 67.75 | 76.46 | 57.7 | 62.74 – 72.76 |
| 2031 | 69.78 | 81.03 | 56.81 | 61.86 – 77.7 |
| 2036 | 74.86 | 90.77 | 56.52 | 59.33 – 90.39 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed35.35(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 35.2 | 40.87 | 29.52 | 33.76 – 36.63 |
| 2026 | 34.89 | 44.72 | 25.07 | 31.71 – 38.07 |
| 2028 | 34.59 | 47.28 | 21.9 | 29.88 – 39.3 |
| 2033 | 33.83 | 51.78 | 15.89 | 25.67 – 41.99 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.43(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.05 | 9.68 | -1.99 | 2.73 – 5.36 |
| 2029 | 7.36 | 17.11 | -3.09 | 4.85 – 9.88 |
| 2031 | 10.67 | 23.26 | -2.81 | 7.03 – 14.32 |
| 2036 | 18.96 | 36.76 | -0.12 | 11.98 – 25.94 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20.98(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21.77 | 29.9 | 14.73 | 20.26 – 23.28 |
| 2026 | 23.42 | 37.49 | 11.22 | 20.28 – 26.55 |
| 2028 | 25.06 | 43.23 | 9.31 | 20.46 – 29.66 |
| 2033 | 29.17 | 54.87 | 6.9 | 20.83 – 37.51 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.6m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 10.1m | 10.9m | 9.4m | 9.8m – 10.4m |
| 2029 | 11.7m | 13m | 10.5m | 10.8m – 12.5m |
| 2031 | 13.2m | 14.9m | 11.7m | 11.7m – 14.7m |
| 2036 | 17.2m | 19.6m | 15m | 13.6m – 20.7m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.46(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.47 | 4.84 | 2.44 | 3.24 – 3.7 |
| 2028 | 3.5 | 5.88 | 1.72 | 3.04 – 3.97 |
| 2030 | 3.54 | 6.61 | 1.23 | 2.87 – 4.21 |
| 2035 | 3.62 | 7.97 | 0.36 | 2.5 – 4.75 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.93 | 2.26 | 1.59 | 1.84 – 2.01 |
| 2028 | 1.79 | 2.37 | 1.21 | 1.61 – 1.97 |
| 2030 | 1.65 | 2.41 | 0.9 | 1.41 – 1.9 |
| 2035 | 1.31 | 2.38 | 0.25 | 0.94 – 1.68 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/TGO · API docs
