Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Togo: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 21/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 16 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 6.57 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.58, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.62) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2018-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: weak track record (+2% skill vs naive; realized ±1.5651 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Togo: forward projections across 12 macro indicators, horizons 2024, 2026, 2028, 2030, 2033, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-3.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -1.1 | 1.48 | -3.68 | -1.64 – -0.56 |
| 2028 | -1.3 | 3.17 | -5.77 | -2.27 – -0.33 |
| 2030 | -1.5 | 4.27 | -7.27 | -2.8 – -0.2 |
| 2035 | -2 | 6.15 | -10.15 | -3.98 – -0.02 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed24.58(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24.33 | 26.42 | 22.52 | 23.58 – 25.09 |
| 2026 | 23.83 | 27.45 | 20.7 | 22.07 – 25.6 |
| 2028 | 23.34 | 28 | 19.29 | 20.69 – 25.99 |
| 2033 | 22.09 | 28.69 | 16.37 | 17.51 – 26.67 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.9bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 12.6bn | 13.6bn | 11.8bn | 12.2bn – 13bn |
| 2028 | 14.5bn | 16.2bn | 13bn | 13.4bn – 15.5bn |
| 2030 | 16.3bn | 18.5bn | 14.4bn | 14.5bn – 18.2bn |
| 2035 | 20.9bn | 24bn | 18.2bn | 16.6bn – 25.3bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.31(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.57 | 9.04 | 4.42 | 6.05 – 7.08 |
| 2028 | 7.17 | 11.45 | 3.47 | 6.12 – 8.23 |
| 2030 | 7.78 | 12 | 3 | 6.24 – 9.33 |
| 2035 | 9.31 | 12 | 2.53 | 6.51 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.4k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.5k | 1.6k | 1.4k | 1.4k – 1.5k |
| 2028 | 1.6k | 1.8k | 1.5k | 1.5k – 1.7k |
| 2030 | 1.8k | 2.1k | 1.6k | 1.6k – 2k |
| 2035 | 2.2k | 2.6k | 1.9k | 1.8k – 2.7k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed64.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 63.9 | 69.29 | 57.68 | 61.92 – 65.88 |
| 2028 | 65.7 | 75.04 | 54.92 | 60.84 – 70.56 |
| 2030 | 67.49 | 79.55 | 53.58 | 59.83 – 75.16 |
| 2035 | 71.99 | 89.04 | 52.31 | 57.06 – 86.92 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed35.35(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 35.2 | 40.87 | 29.52 | 33.76 – 36.63 |
| 2026 | 34.89 | 44.72 | 25.07 | 31.71 – 38.07 |
| 2028 | 34.59 | 47.28 | 21.9 | 29.88 – 39.3 |
| 2033 | 33.83 | 51.78 | 15.89 | 25.67 – 41.99 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.43(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.27 | 5.41 | -5 | -1.55 – 1 |
| 2028 | -3.67 | 6.16 | -5 | -5 – -1.32 |
| 2030 | -5 | 7.69 | -5 | -5 – -1.79 |
| 2035 | -5 | 12.95 | -5 | -5 – -0.22 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20.98(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21.77 | 29.9 | 14.73 | 20.26 – 23.28 |
| 2026 | 23.42 | 37.49 | 11.22 | 20.28 – 26.55 |
| 2028 | 25.06 | 43.23 | 9.31 | 20.46 – 29.66 |
| 2033 | 29.17 | 54.87 | 6.9 | 20.83 – 37.51 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.6m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.5m | 9m | 8.2m | 8.3m – 8.8m |
| 2028 | 8.8m | 9.2m | 8.4m | 8.1m – 9.4m |
| 2030 | 9m | 9.4m | 8.6m | 7.9m – 10m |
| 2035 | 9.5m | 9.9m | 9m | 7.5m – 11.4m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.46(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.47 | 4.84 | 2.44 | 3.24 – 3.7 |
| 2028 | 3.5 | 5.88 | 1.72 | 3.04 – 3.97 |
| 2030 | 3.54 | 6.61 | 1.23 | 2.87 – 4.21 |
| 2035 | 3.62 | 7.97 | 0.36 | 2.5 – 4.75 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.93 | 2.26 | 1.59 | 1.84 – 2.01 |
| 2028 | 1.79 | 2.37 | 1.21 | 1.61 – 1.97 |
| 2030 | 1.65 | 2.41 | 0.9 | 1.41 – 1.9 |
| 2035 | 1.31 | 2.38 | 0.25 | 0.94 – 1.68 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/TGO · API docs
