Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Thailand: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 26/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 2.92 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.48, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.56) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-6% skill vs naive; realized ±1.4223 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Thailand: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed0.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.5 | 8.95 | -3.95 | 1.15 – 3.86 |
| 2028 | 1.3 | 12.47 | -9.87 | -1.04 – 3.65 |
| 2030 | 0.11 | 14.53 | -14.31 | -2.92 – 3.13 |
| 2035 | -2.89 | 17.5 | -23.28 | -7.51 – 1.74 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed71.15(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 72.87 | 84.29 | 62.97 | 70.07 – 75.66 |
| 2028 | 76.3 | 96.08 | 59.16 | 69.82 – 82.79 |
| 2030 | 79.74 | 105.28 | 57.61 | 69.71 – 89.77 |
| 2035 | 88.34 | 124.45 | 57.04 | 69.04 – 107.63 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed577bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 591.3bn | 650.7bn | 539.8bn | 572.9bn – 609.6bn |
| 2028 | 626.4bn | 729.3bn | 537.2bn | 580.1bn – 672.7bn |
| 2030 | 661.5bn | 794.4bn | 546.4bn | 586.4bn – 736.6bn |
| 2035 | 749.3bn | 937.3bn | 586.5bn | 593.9bn – 904.8bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.44(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.92 | 9.29 | -2.6 | 1.81 – 4.03 |
| 2028 | 4.05 | 12 | -5.51 | 2.02 – 6.09 |
| 2030 | 5.18 | 12 | -7.17 | 2.39 – 7.97 |
| 2035 | 8 | 12 | -9.46 | 3.36 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.2k | 9.1k | 7.5k | 8k – 8.5k |
| 2028 | 8.7k | 10.2k | 7.5k | 8.1k – 9.4k |
| 2030 | 9.2k | 11.1k | 7.6k | 8.2k – 10.3k |
| 2035 | 10.4k | 13.1k | 8.1k | 8.3k – 12.6k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed66.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 67.87 | 74.02 | 60.77 | 65.77 – 69.98 |
| 2028 | 74.22 | 84.87 | 61.92 | 68.73 – 79.71 |
| 2030 | 80.56 | 94.31 | 64.69 | 71.41 – 89.71 |
| 2035 | 96.42 | 115.87 | 73.98 | 76.42 – 116.42 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed67.27(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 69.86 | 82.43 | 57.29 | 66.82 – 72.9 |
| 2028 | 75.05 | 96.82 | 53.28 | 68.11 – 81.98 |
| 2030 | 80.23 | 108.34 | 52.13 | 69.51 – 90.95 |
| 2035 | 93.2 | 132.95 | 53.46 | 72.21 – 114.2 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-0.13(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.19 | 6.37 | -5 | -1.65 – 1.28 |
| 2028 | -0.93 | 10.43 | -5 | -3.5 – 1.64 |
| 2030 | -1.67 | 12.99 | -5 | -5 – 1.71 |
| 2035 | -3.54 | 17.2 | -5 | -5 – 1.63 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.66(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 22.49 | 23.68 | 21.47 | 21.8 – 23.19 |
| 2028 | 22.13 | 23.98 | 20.52 | 20.49 – 23.76 |
| 2030 | 21.76 | 24.15 | 19.68 | 19.29 – 24.23 |
| 2035 | 20.84 | 24.22 | 17.9 | 16.51 – 25.16 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed71.6m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 71.6m | 75m | 68.5m | 69.4m – 73.8m |
| 2028 | 71.6m | 74.9m | 68.4m | 66.3m – 76.9m |
| 2030 | 71.5m | 74.9m | 68.4m | 63.4m – 79.6m |
| 2035 | 71.4m | 74.8m | 68.3m | 56.6m – 86.2m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.8(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.36 | 14.63 | -5.09 | 1.9 – 4.82 |
| 2028 | 4.74 | 15 | -9.9 | 2.07 – 7.41 |
| 2030 | 6.12 | 15 | -10 | 2.48 – 9.76 |
| 2035 | 9.57 | 15 | -10 | 3.59 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed249.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 257.6bn | 300bn | 215.3bn | 247bn – 268.2bn |
| 2028 | 277.6bn | 351bn | 204.2bn | 253bn – 302.1bn |
| 2030 | 297.5bn | 392.3bn | 202.8bn | 259.2bn – 335.8bn |
| 2035 | 347.4bn | 481.3bn | 213.4bn | 271.3bn – 423.4bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.03(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.17 | 11.61 | 4.74 | 7.52 – 8.83 |
| 2028 | 8.35 | 14.3 | 2.4 | 7.04 – 9.66 |
| 2030 | 8.44 | 16.12 | 0.76 | 6.59 – 10.29 |
| 2035 | 8.51 | 19.37 | 0 | 5.48 – 11.53 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed282.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 294.3bn | 340.9bn | 247.8bn | 282.5bn – 306.2bn |
| 2028 | 324bn | 404.5bn | 243.4bn | 296.1bn – 351.9bn |
| 2030 | 353.6bn | 457.6bn | 249.6bn | 309.4bn – 397.8bn |
| 2035 | 427.7bn | 574.8bn | 280.6bn | 336.8bn – 518.6bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.78(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.69 | 0.99 | 0.4 | 0.63 – 0.75 |
| 2028 | 0.52 | 1.03 | 0 | 0.39 – 0.64 |
| 2030 | 0.34 | 1 | 0 | 0.16 – 0.52 |
| 2035 | 0 | 0.94 | 0 | 0 – 0.3 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/THA · API docs
