Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Tajikistan: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 31/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 5.2 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.38, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: supportive (projected sentiment +0.50) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2016-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: weak track record (+4% skill vs naive; realized ±2.4879 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Tajikistan: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed6.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 7.54 | 22.83 | -7.75 | 4.3 – 10.78 |
| 2029 | 10.02 | 30 | -16.46 | 4.14 – 15.91 |
| 2031 | 12.5 | 30 | -21.68 | 4.53 – 20.48 |
| 2036 | 18.7 | 30 | -29.64 | 5.85 – 30 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.21(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 11.2 | 20.89 | 2.81 | 9.64 – 12.76 |
| 2027 | 11.18 | 27.96 | 0 | 8.25 – 14.11 |
| 2029 | 11.16 | 32.82 | 0 | 7.17 – 15.14 |
| 2034 | 11.1 | 41.73 | 0 | 4.95 – 17.25 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed17.7bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 22.3bn | 24.6bn | 20.4bn | 21.6bn – 23bn |
| 2029 | 27.1bn | 31bn | 23.7bn | 25.1bn – 29.1bn |
| 2031 | 31.9bn | 36.9bn | 27.5bn | 28.2bn – 35.5bn |
| 2036 | 43.8bn | 50.9bn | 37.6bn | 34.7bn – 52.8bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.4(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.2 | 7.41 | 3.29 | 4.75 – 5.65 |
| 2029 | 3.38 | 7.19 | 0.07 | 2.58 – 4.17 |
| 2031 | 1.55 | 6.47 | -2.72 | 0.6 – 2.49 |
| 2036 | -3.03 | 3.94 | -9.07 | -4.67 – -1.38 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.6k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.1k | 2.3k | 1.9k | 2k – 2.2k |
| 2029 | 2.5k | 2.9k | 2.2k | 2.3k – 2.7k |
| 2031 | 3k | 3.5k | 2.5k | 2.6k – 3.3k |
| 2036 | 4k | 4.7k | 3.4k | 3.2k – 4.9k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 18.52 | 27.63 | 8.01 | 16.82 – 20.22 |
| 2029 | 11.77 | 27.55 | 0 | 8.78 – 14.76 |
| 2031 | 5.02 | 25.39 | 0 | 1.48 – 8.55 |
| 2036 | 0 | 28.81 | 0 | 0 – 4.59 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed47.88(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 49.44 | 56.47 | 42.41 | 47.57 – 51.31 |
| 2027 | 52.57 | 64.75 | 40.38 | 48.18 – 56.95 |
| 2029 | 55.69 | 71.42 | 39.96 | 48.83 – 62.55 |
| 2034 | 63.5 | 85.75 | 41.26 | 49.94 – 77.07 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6(2016)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.28 | 7.09 | 1.27 | 3.59 – 4.98 |
| 2029 | 5.12 | 9.99 | -0.09 | 3.8 – 6.45 |
| 2031 | 5.96 | 12.25 | -0.77 | 4.09 – 7.83 |
| 2036 | 8.06 | 16.95 | -1.46 | 4.8 – 11.32 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed30.24(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 29.62 | 36.82 | 23.38 | 28.12 – 31.12 |
| 2027 | 28.27 | 40.74 | 17.46 | 25.13 – 31.41 |
| 2029 | 26.92 | 43.03 | 12.97 | 22.47 – 31.38 |
| 2034 | 23.56 | 46.33 | 3.82 | 16.54 – 30.58 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.8m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 10.4m | 10.9m | 10m | 10.1m – 10.8m |
| 2029 | 10.1m | 10.6m | 9.7m | 9.4m – 10.9m |
| 2031 | 9.9m | 10.5m | 9.3m | 8.7m – 11m |
| 2036 | 9.2m | 10m | 8.3m | 7.3m – 11.1m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.85(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.24 | 11.84 | 2.04 | 5.44 – 7.04 |
| 2028 | 7.1 | 15 | -0.18 | 5.54 – 8.65 |
| 2030 | 7.95 | 15 | -1.44 | 5.75 – 10.16 |
| 2035 | 10.1 | 15 | -3.19 | 6.27 – 13.93 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.6bn | 5.4bn | 3.9bn | 4.4bn – 4.8bn |
| 2028 | 5.5bn | 6.8bn | 4.2bn | 5bn – 5.9bn |
| 2030 | 6.3bn | 8bn | 4.6bn | 5.6bn – 7.1bn |
| 2035 | 8.5bn | 10.9bn | 6.1bn | 6.7bn – 10.2bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.75(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.76 | 9.11 | 2.4 | 5.15 – 6.36 |
| 2028 | 5.76 | 11.58 | 0 | 4.6 – 6.93 |
| 2030 | 5.77 | 13.27 | 0 | 4.16 – 7.38 |
| 2035 | 5.77 | 16.38 | 0 | 3.22 – 8.32 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.5bn | 5.6bn | 3.4bn | 4.3bn – 4.7bn |
| 2028 | 5.1bn | 6.9bn | 3.2bn | 4.5bn – 5.6bn |
| 2030 | 5.6bn | 8bn | 3.2bn | 4.8bn – 6.4bn |
| 2035 | 7bn | 10.4bn | 3.6bn | 5.4bn – 8.6bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.93(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.78 | 7.3 | 6.27 | 6.57 – 6.99 |
| 2028 | 6.49 | 7.38 | 5.59 | 6.01 – 6.97 |
| 2030 | 6.19 | 7.34 | 5.04 | 5.49 – 6.89 |
| 2035 | 5.45 | 7.08 | 3.82 | 4.32 – 6.58 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/TJK · API docs
