Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Tajikistan: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 20/100); the economy is in expansion; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 8.59 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.60, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.54) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2016-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: weak track record (+4% skill vs naive; realized ±2.5856 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Tajikistan: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed6.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18.99 | 30 | 6.79 | 16.19 – 21.78 |
| 2028 | 23.76 | 30 | 2.63 | 18.31 – 29.22 |
| 2030 | 28.54 | 30 | 1.26 | 20.69 – 30 |
| 2035 | 30 | 30 | -8.59 | 17.33 – 30 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.21(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 11.2 | 20.89 | 2.81 | 9.64 – 12.76 |
| 2027 | 11.18 | 27.96 | 0 | 8.25 – 14.11 |
| 2029 | 11.16 | 32.82 | 0 | 7.17 – 15.14 |
| 2034 | 11.1 | 41.73 | 0 | 4.95 – 17.25 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed17.7bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 19.2bn | 21.4bn | 17.3bn | 18.6bn – 19.8bn |
| 2028 | 23bn | 26.8bn | 19.7bn | 21.3bn – 24.7bn |
| 2030 | 26.9bn | 31.8bn | 22.6bn | 23.8bn – 29.9bn |
| 2035 | 36.5bn | 43.5bn | 30.5bn | 28.9bn – 44.1bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.4(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.59 | 12 | 4.61 | 7.68 – 9.49 |
| 2028 | 9.02 | 12 | 2.14 | 7.27 – 10.78 |
| 2030 | 9.46 | 12 | 0.57 | 6.99 – 11.93 |
| 2035 | 10.56 | 12 | -2.02 | 6.45 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.6k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.8k | 2k | 1.6k | 1.7k – 1.8k |
| 2028 | 2.1k | 2.4k | 1.8k | 1.9k – 2.2k |
| 2030 | 2.4k | 2.8k | 2k | 2.1k – 2.7k |
| 2035 | 3.2k | 3.8k | 2.6k | 2.5k – 3.9k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18.81 | 28.62 | 7.49 | 17 – 20.62 |
| 2028 | 13.23 | 30.22 | 0 | 9.98 – 16.48 |
| 2030 | 7.65 | 29.58 | 0 | 3.67 – 11.64 |
| 2035 | 0 | 31.01 | 0 | 0 – 4.93 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed47.88(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 49.44 | 56.47 | 42.41 | 47.57 – 51.31 |
| 2027 | 52.57 | 64.75 | 40.38 | 48.18 – 56.95 |
| 2029 | 55.69 | 71.42 | 39.96 | 48.83 – 62.55 |
| 2034 | 63.5 | 85.75 | 41.26 | 49.94 – 77.07 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6(2016)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.47 | 6.19 | 0.56 | 2.82 – 4.13 |
| 2028 | 3.33 | 8.04 | -1.71 | 2.13 – 4.54 |
| 2030 | 3.19 | 9.28 | -3.32 | 1.59 – 4.8 |
| 2035 | 2.84 | 11.44 | -5 | 0.48 – 5.21 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed30.24(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 29.62 | 36.82 | 23.38 | 28.12 – 31.12 |
| 2027 | 28.27 | 40.74 | 17.46 | 25.13 – 31.41 |
| 2029 | 26.92 | 43.03 | 12.97 | 22.47 – 31.38 |
| 2034 | 23.56 | 46.33 | 3.82 | 16.54 – 30.58 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.8m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.7m | 11.2m | 10.3m | 10.4m – 11.1m |
| 2028 | 10.9m | 11.5m | 10.5m | 10.1m – 11.8m |
| 2030 | 11.2m | 11.7m | 10.7m | 9.9m – 12.4m |
| 2035 | 11.7m | 12.3m | 11.2m | 9.3m – 14.1m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.85(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.24 | 11.84 | 2.04 | 5.44 – 7.04 |
| 2028 | 7.1 | 15 | -0.18 | 5.54 – 8.65 |
| 2030 | 7.95 | 15 | -1.44 | 5.75 – 10.16 |
| 2035 | 10.1 | 15 | -3.19 | 6.27 – 13.93 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.6bn | 5.4bn | 3.9bn | 4.4bn – 4.8bn |
| 2028 | 5.5bn | 6.8bn | 4.2bn | 5bn – 5.9bn |
| 2030 | 6.3bn | 8bn | 4.6bn | 5.6bn – 7.1bn |
| 2035 | 8.5bn | 10.9bn | 6.1bn | 6.7bn – 10.2bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.75(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.76 | 9.11 | 2.4 | 5.15 – 6.36 |
| 2028 | 5.76 | 11.58 | 0 | 4.6 – 6.93 |
| 2030 | 5.77 | 13.27 | 0 | 4.16 – 7.38 |
| 2035 | 5.77 | 16.38 | 0 | 3.22 – 8.32 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.5bn | 5.6bn | 3.4bn | 4.3bn – 4.7bn |
| 2028 | 5.1bn | 6.9bn | 3.2bn | 4.5bn – 5.6bn |
| 2030 | 5.6bn | 8bn | 3.2bn | 4.8bn – 6.4bn |
| 2035 | 7bn | 10.4bn | 3.6bn | 5.4bn – 8.6bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.93(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.78 | 7.3 | 6.27 | 6.57 – 6.99 |
| 2028 | 6.49 | 7.38 | 5.59 | 6.01 – 6.97 |
| 2030 | 6.19 | 7.34 | 5.04 | 5.49 – 6.89 |
| 2035 | 5.45 | 7.08 | 3.82 | 4.32 – 6.58 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/TJK · API docs
