Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Turkmenistan: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 34/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 18 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 1.44 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.32, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment +0.30) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 1999-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 1999-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: moderate track record (+22% skill vs naive; realized ±4.2762 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Turkmenistan: forward projections across 14 macro indicators, horizons 2000, 2002, 2004, 2009, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed3.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.96 | 11.59 | -3.67 | 2.34 – 5.58 |
| 2029 | 4.47 | 17.69 | -8.75 | 1.56 – 7.38 |
| 2031 | 4.99 | 22.05 | -12.08 | 1.1 – 8.87 |
| 2036 | 6.27 | 30 | -17.86 | 0.34 – 12.2 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.47(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 13.09 | 21.79 | 5.56 | 11.64 – 14.55 |
| 2028 | 10.34 | 25.4 | 0 | 7.69 – 12.99 |
| 2030 | 7.58 | 27.03 | 0 | 4.2 – 10.97 |
| 2035 | 0.7 | 28.2 | 0 | 0 – 4.79 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed49.8bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 91.4bn | 115.1bn | 70.9bn | 87.2bn – 95.7bn |
| 2029 | 113.1bn | 154.2bn | 77.6bn | 102.8bn – 123.4bn |
| 2031 | 134.8bn | 187.8bn | 88.9bn | 117.7bn – 151.9bn |
| 2036 | 189bn | 263.9bn | 124.1bn | 149.8bn – 228.2bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.3(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.44 | 4.58 | -1.28 | 0.89 – 1.99 |
| 2029 | -1.22 | 4.22 | -5.94 | -2.19 – -0.26 |
| 2031 | -3.89 | 3.13 | -9.98 | -5.37 – -2.41 |
| 2036 | -10 | -0.07 | -10 | -10 – -6.74 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.5k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 13.5k | 17.7k | 9.9k | 12.8k – 14.2k |
| 2029 | 16.8k | 24k | 10.6k | 15.1k – 18.5k |
| 2031 | 20.1k | 29.3k | 12k | 17.3k – 22.8k |
| 2036 | 28.2k | 41.4k | 16.8k | 22.1k – 34.3k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.14 | 4.2 | 0 | 0.65 – 1.63 |
| 2029 | 0 | 5.3 | 0 | 0 – 0.86 |
| 2031 | 0 | 6.84 | 0 | 0 – 1.13 |
| 2036 | 0 | 9.68 | 0 | 0 – 1.65 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed13.7(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 13.62 | 15.76 | 11.48 | 13.08 – 14.17 |
| 2028 | 13.48 | 17.18 | 9.77 | 12.26 – 14.69 |
| 2030 | 13.33 | 18.12 | 8.54 | 11.53 – 15.13 |
| 2035 | 12.96 | 19.73 | 6.19 | 9.85 – 16.07 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.51 | 18.2 | -5 | 1.4 – 7.62 |
| 2029 | 6.19 | 29.91 | -5 | 0.63 – 11.74 |
| 2031 | 7.87 | 38.49 | -5 | 0.45 – 15.28 |
| 2036 | 12.07 | 50 | -5 | 0.54 – 23.6 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16.54(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15.91 | 20.35 | 12.05 | 15.02 – 16.8 |
| 2028 | 14.14 | 21.84 | 7.46 | 12.36 – 15.92 |
| 2030 | 12.37 | 22.32 | 3.75 | 9.96 – 14.78 |
| 2035 | 7.96 | 22.02 | 0 | 4.67 – 11.24 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.6m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 6.6m | 7.2m | 6.1m | 6.4m – 6.8m |
| 2029 | 5.7m | 6.7m | 4.7m | 5.2m – 6.1m |
| 2031 | 4.7m | 6m | 3.5m | 4.2m – 5.2m |
| 2036 | 2.3m | 4.2m | 580.2k | 1.8m – 2.9m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.73(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.87 | 9.82 | 1.16 | 4.18 – 5.57 |
| 2028 | 5.16 | 13.73 | -1.27 | 3.84 – 6.48 |
| 2030 | 5.44 | 15 | -2.85 | 3.62 – 7.26 |
| 2035 | 6.15 | 15 | -5.58 | 3.21 – 9.09 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.5bn(1999)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 1.6bn | 1.7bn | 1.5bn | 1.6bn – 1.7bn |
| 2002 | 1.8bn | 2.1bn | 1.6bn | 1.7bn – 2bn |
| 2004 | 2.1bn | 2.4bn | 1.8bn | 1.8bn – 2.3bn |
| 2009 | 2.6bn | 3.1bn | 2.2bn | 2.1bn – 3.2bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.5bn(1999)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 1.6bn | 1.7bn | 1.5bn | 1.6bn – 1.7bn |
| 2002 | 1.8bn | 2.1bn | 1.6bn | 1.7bn – 2bn |
| 2004 | 2.1bn | 2.4bn | 1.8bn | 1.8bn – 2.3bn |
| 2009 | 2.6bn | 3.1bn | 2.2bn | 2.1bn – 3.2bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.27(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.2 | 4.63 | 3.76 | 4.06 – 4.33 |
| 2028 | 4.06 | 4.81 | 3.3 | 3.75 – 4.37 |
| 2030 | 3.92 | 4.89 | 2.95 | 3.46 – 4.38 |
| 2035 | 3.57 | 4.95 | 2.19 | 2.79 – 4.35 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/TKM · API docs
