Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Turkmenistan: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 21/100); the economy is in expansion; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 18 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 6.32 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.58, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.64) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 1999-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 1999-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: moderate track record (+22% skill vs naive; realized ±3.9166 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Turkmenistan: forward projections across 14 macro indicators, horizons 2000, 2002, 2004, 2009, 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed1.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.61 | 9.87 | -6.66 | -0.11 – 3.32 |
| 2028 | 1.42 | 15.73 | -12.89 | -1.57 – 4.41 |
| 2030 | 1.23 | 19.7 | -17.25 | -2.64 – 5.1 |
| 2035 | 0.76 | 26.89 | -25.37 | -4.73 – 6.25 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.47(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 13.09 | 21.79 | 5.56 | 11.64 – 14.55 |
| 2028 | 10.34 | 25.4 | 0 | 7.69 – 12.99 |
| 2030 | 7.58 | 27.03 | 0 | 4.2 – 10.97 |
| 2035 | 0.7 | 28.2 | 0 | 0 – 4.79 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed49.8bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 52.8bn | 61.7bn | 45.1bn | 50.9bn – 54.7bn |
| 2028 | 60.6bn | 76bn | 47.2bn | 55.8bn – 65.3bn |
| 2030 | 68.3bn | 88.3bn | 51bn | 60.5bn – 76.2bn |
| 2035 | 87.7bn | 115.9bn | 63.3bn | 69.5bn – 105.9bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.3(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.32 | 6.65 | 6.03 | 6.12 – 6.51 |
| 2028 | 6.36 | 6.75 | 6.02 | 5.89 – 6.83 |
| 2030 | 6.41 | 6.91 | 5.97 | 5.68 – 7.13 |
| 2035 | 6.52 | 7.23 | 5.9 | 5.17 – 7.87 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.5k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.9k | 8.1k | 5.8k | 6.6k – 7.1k |
| 2028 | 7.7k | 9.9k | 5.9k | 7.1k – 8.3k |
| 2030 | 8.6k | 11.3k | 6.2k | 7.6k – 9.6k |
| 2035 | 10.7k | 14.6k | 7.3k | 8.5k – 12.9k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.52 | 4.9 | 0 | 0 – 1.21 |
| 2028 | 0 | 7.6 | 0 | 0 – 1.22 |
| 2030 | 0 | 9.81 | 0 | 0 – 1.59 |
| 2035 | 0 | 13.87 | 0 | 0 – 2.29 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed13.7(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 13.62 | 15.76 | 11.48 | 13.08 – 14.17 |
| 2028 | 13.48 | 17.18 | 9.77 | 12.26 – 14.69 |
| 2030 | 13.33 | 18.12 | 8.54 | 11.53 – 15.13 |
| 2035 | 12.96 | 19.73 | 6.19 | 9.85 – 16.07 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.76 | 21.06 | -5 | -2.54 – 6.07 |
| 2028 | -0.9 | 32.53 | -5 | -5 – 6.56 |
| 2030 | -3.56 | 39.6 | -5 | -5 – 6.29 |
| 2035 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 9.33 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16.54(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15.91 | 20.35 | 12.05 | 15.02 – 16.8 |
| 2028 | 14.14 | 21.84 | 7.46 | 12.36 – 15.92 |
| 2030 | 12.37 | 22.32 | 3.75 | 9.96 – 14.78 |
| 2035 | 7.96 | 22.02 | 0 | 4.67 – 11.24 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.6m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.6m | 7.9m | 7.2m | 7.3m – 7.8m |
| 2028 | 7.7m | 8.1m | 7.4m | 7.1m – 8.3m |
| 2030 | 7.9m | 8.2m | 7.5m | 7m – 8.7m |
| 2035 | 8.2m | 8.6m | 7.8m | 6.5m – 9.9m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.73(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.87 | 9.82 | 1.16 | 4.18 – 5.57 |
| 2028 | 5.16 | 13.73 | -1.27 | 3.84 – 6.48 |
| 2030 | 5.44 | 15 | -2.85 | 3.62 – 7.26 |
| 2035 | 6.15 | 15 | -5.58 | 3.21 – 9.09 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.5bn(1999)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 1.6bn | 1.7bn | 1.5bn | 1.6bn – 1.7bn |
| 2002 | 1.8bn | 2.1bn | 1.6bn | 1.7bn – 2bn |
| 2004 | 2.1bn | 2.4bn | 1.8bn | 1.8bn – 2.3bn |
| 2009 | 2.6bn | 3.1bn | 2.2bn | 2.1bn – 3.2bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.5bn(1999)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 1.6bn | 1.7bn | 1.5bn | 1.6bn – 1.7bn |
| 2002 | 1.8bn | 2.1bn | 1.6bn | 1.7bn – 2bn |
| 2004 | 2.1bn | 2.4bn | 1.8bn | 1.8bn – 2.3bn |
| 2009 | 2.6bn | 3.1bn | 2.2bn | 2.1bn – 3.2bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.27(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.2 | 4.63 | 3.76 | 4.06 – 4.33 |
| 2028 | 4.06 | 4.81 | 3.3 | 3.75 – 4.37 |
| 2030 | 3.92 | 4.89 | 2.95 | 3.46 – 4.38 |
| 2035 | 3.57 | 4.95 | 2.19 | 2.79 – 4.35 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/TKM · API docs
