Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Latin America & the Caribbean (IDA & IBRD countries): macro conditions look supportive (pressure 27/100); the economy is in expansion; 15 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 2.67 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.46, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.40) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
as of 2020-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-10% skill vs naive; realized ±7.0732 over 25) · a track record, not a guarantee
Latin America & the Caribbean (IDA & IBRD countries): forward projections across 11 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed26.11(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 26.4 | 29.56 | 23.67 | 25.53 – 27.28 |
| 2028 | 26.98 | 32.45 | 22.24 | 24.9 – 29.05 |
| 2030 | 27.55 | 34.61 | 21.43 | 24.34 – 30.77 |
| 2035 | 28.99 | 38.97 | 20.34 | 22.93 – 35.06 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.1T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.3T | 8.5T | 6.3T | 7.1T – 7.6T |
| 2028 | 8T | 10T | 6.3T | 7.4T – 8.7T |
| 2030 | 8.7T | 11.3T | 6.5T | 7.7T – 9.7T |
| 2035 | 10.5T | 14.1T | 7.4T | 8.3T – 12.7T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.36(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.67 | 12 | -8.68 | 0.44 – 4.89 |
| 2028 | 3.34 | 12 | -10 | -0.6 – 7.28 |
| 2030 | 4.02 | 12 | -10 | -1.18 – 9.21 |
| 2035 | 5.7 | 12 | -10 | -2.11 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.8k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11.2k | 13k | 9.6k | 10.8k – 11.6k |
| 2028 | 12.2k | 15.3k | 9.5k | 11.2k – 13.1k |
| 2030 | 13.1k | 17.1k | 9.6k | 11.6k – 14.6k |
| 2035 | 15.5k | 21.2k | 10.6k | 12.3k – 18.7k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed26.35(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 26.61 | 31.31 | 21.9 | 25.46 – 27.75 |
| 2028 | 27.12 | 35.26 | 18.97 | 24.57 – 29.66 |
| 2030 | 27.62 | 38.14 | 17.1 | 23.8 – 31.44 |
| 2035 | 28.89 | 43.77 | 14.01 | 21.99 – 35.79 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.31(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.93 | 7.52 | -4.05 | 0.66 – 3.2 |
| 2028 | 0.09 | 9.77 | -5 | -2.11 – 2.28 |
| 2030 | -1.76 | 10.73 | -5 | -4.67 – 1.15 |
| 2035 | -5 | 12.67 | -5 | -5 – -0.28 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed18.93(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18.82 | 20.26 | 17.58 | 18.24 – 19.41 |
| 2028 | 18.58 | 21.08 | 16.42 | 17.21 – 19.96 |
| 2030 | 18.35 | 21.56 | 15.56 | 16.26 – 20.43 |
| 2035 | 17.75 | 22.3 | 13.8 | 14.07 – 21.43 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed651.5m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 650.3m | 681m | 621.7m | 630.1m – 670.4m |
| 2028 | 655.2m | 686.1m | 626.4m | 606.7m – 703.6m |
| 2030 | 660.1m | 691.3m | 631.1m | 585.1m – 735m |
| 2035 | 672.4m | 704.1m | 642.9m | 532.9m – 811.8m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.83(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.11 | 3.6 | -0.75 | 0.79 – 1.44 |
| 2028 | 1.77 | 6.06 | -1.46 | 1.14 – 2.39 |
| 2030 | 2.42 | 7.96 | -1.75 | 1.53 – 3.3 |
| 2035 | 4.04 | 11.89 | -1.84 | 2.41 – 5.67 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.54(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.1 | 9.85 | 4.35 | 6.57 – 7.64 |
| 2028 | 7.77 | 12.53 | 3.01 | 6.67 – 8.88 |
| 2030 | 8.1 | 14.25 | 1.96 | 6.51 – 9.69 |
| 2035 | 8.37 | 17.06 | 0 | 5.7 – 11.03 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.51(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.51 | 5.87 | 3.15 | 4.23 – 4.79 |
| 2028 | 2.51 | 4.87 | 0.16 | 2.03 – 2.99 |
| 2030 | 0.51 | 3.55 | 0 | 0 – 1.06 |
| 2035 | 0 | 4.3 | 0 | 0 – 0.82 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/TLA · API docs
