Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Timor-Leste: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 29/100); the economy is in slowdown; 3 turning-point signals flagged; 17 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 8.59 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.42, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: supportive (projected sentiment +0.56) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2007-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: moderate track record (+27% skill vs naive; realized ±11.961 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Timor-Leste: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-32(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -30 | 12.76 | -30 | -30 – -20.79 |
| 2029 | -30 | 30 | -30 | -30 – -13.44 |
| 2031 | -30 | 30 | -30 | -30 – -8.09 |
| 2036 | -30 | 30 | -30 | -30 – 2.4 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.56(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 13.97 | 54.2 | 0 | 8 – 19.94 |
| 2027 | 20.81 | 90.48 | 0 | 9.86 – 31.76 |
| 2029 | 27.64 | 117.59 | 0 | 12.58 – 42.7 |
| 2034 | 44.73 | 150 | 0 | 19.4 – 70.06 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.9bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.2bn | 3.7bn | 842.3m | 2bn – 2.4bn |
| 2029 | 2.1bn | 4.8bn | 0 | 1.7bn – 2.6bn |
| 2031 | 2.1bn | 5.5bn | 0 | 1.5bn – 2.7bn |
| 2036 | 2bn | 6.9bn | 0 | 1.1bn – 2.9bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.98(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 8.59 | 12 | -10 | 3.44 – 12 |
| 2029 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 2.75 – 12 |
| 2031 | 12 | 12 | -10 | -0.16 – 12 |
| 2036 | 12 | 12 | -10 | -5.76 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.3k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.5k | 2.6k | 531.14 | 1.3k – 1.7k |
| 2029 | 1.4k | 3.4k | 0 | 1.1k – 1.7k |
| 2031 | 1.4k | 3.9k | 0 | 975.71 – 1.8k |
| 2036 | 1.2k | 4.8k | 0 | 616.48 – 1.9k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 15.76 | 19.56 | 11.37 | 14.92 – 16.59 |
| 2029 | 17.47 | 24.06 | 9.88 | 15.62 – 19.33 |
| 2031 | 19.19 | 27.69 | 9.39 | 16.35 – 22.03 |
| 2036 | 23.48 | 35.5 | 9.62 | 17.88 – 29.09 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed84.89(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 87.14 | 112.58 | 61.71 | 81.86 – 92.43 |
| 2027 | 91.65 | 135.7 | 47.6 | 80.51 – 102.79 |
| 2029 | 96.15 | 150 | 39.28 | 79.76 – 112.55 |
| 2034 | 107.42 | 150 | 26.99 | 77.92 – 136.91 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.43(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.07 | 10 | -4.36 | 1.48 – 4.65 |
| 2029 | 5.41 | 17.42 | -5 | 2.49 – 8.33 |
| 2031 | 7.75 | 23.25 | -5 | 3.69 – 11.8 |
| 2036 | 13.6 | 35.52 | -5 | 6.56 – 20.64 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed27.01(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 28.31 | 43.12 | 15.47 | 25.74 – 30.88 |
| 2027 | 31.67 | 57.33 | 9.43 | 26.49 – 36.86 |
| 2029 | 35.04 | 68.16 | 6.33 | 27.5 – 42.57 |
| 2034 | 43.45 | 70 | 2.85 | 29.8 – 57.09 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.4m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.4m | 1.5m | 1.4m | 1.4m – 1.5m |
| 2029 | 1.4m | 1.5m | 1.4m | 1.3m – 1.5m |
| 2031 | 1.4m | 1.5m | 1.4m | 1.3m – 1.6m |
| 2036 | 1.5m | 1.5m | 1.4m | 1.2m – 1.8m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.5(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.82 | 15 | -10 | 2 – 11.63 |
| 2028 | 12.02 | 15 | -10 | 3.3 – 15 |
| 2030 | 15 | 15 | -10 | 3.28 – 15 |
| 2035 | 15 | 15 | -10 | -2.27 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed850.6m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 850.6m | 1.1bn | 600.4m | 798.7m – 902.5m |
| 2028 | 858m | 1.3bn | 424.7m | 750.5m – 965.5m |
| 2030 | 865.4m | 1.4bn | 306m | 710.6m – 1bn |
| 2035 | 884.1m | 1.7bn | 92.9m | 621.5m – 1.1bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.07(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.04 | 10.07 | 2.02 | 5.33 – 6.76 |
| 2028 | 6.01 | 12.98 | 0 | 4.66 – 7.37 |
| 2030 | 5.99 | 14.99 | 0 | 4.14 – 7.85 |
| 2035 | 5.98 | 18.71 | 0 | 3.08 – 8.89 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed850.6m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 850.6m | 1.1bn | 600.4m | 798.7m – 902.5m |
| 2028 | 858m | 1.3bn | 424.7m | 750.5m – 965.5m |
| 2030 | 865.4m | 1.4bn | 306m | 710.6m – 1bn |
| 2035 | 884.1m | 1.7bn | 92.9m | 621.5m – 1.1bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.59(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.35 | 2.01 | 0.68 | 1.22 – 1.47 |
| 2028 | 0.86 | 2.01 | 0 | 0.63 – 1.08 |
| 2030 | 0.37 | 1.86 | 0 | 0.06 – 0.68 |
| 2035 | 0 | 2.1 | 0 | 0 – 0.48 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/TLS · API docs
