Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan (IDA & IBRD): macro conditions look balanced (pressure 42/100); the economy is in slowdown; 15 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 1.88 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.16, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.16) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
as of 2020-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
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World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-9% skill vs naive; realized ±0.062 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan (IDA & IBRD): forward projections across 11 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed25.24(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 25.74 | 32.87 | 19.56 | 24.31 – 27.17 |
| 2028 | 26.73 | 39.09 | 16.03 | 23.69 – 29.78 |
| 2030 | 27.73 | 43.68 | 13.9 | 23.23 – 32.23 |
| 2035 | 30.21 | 52.77 | 10.66 | 22.16 – 38.27 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.1T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.1T | 2.5T | 1.9T | 2.1T – 2.2T |
| 2028 | 2.2T | 2.7T | 1.7T | 2T – 2.4T |
| 2030 | 2.2T | 2.9T | 1.6T | 2T – 2.5T |
| 2035 | 2.4T | 3.4T | 1.5T | 1.9T – 2.9T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.98(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.88 | 8.2 | -3.61 | 0.79 – 2.96 |
| 2028 | 1.63 | 12 | -7.87 | -0.27 – 3.54 |
| 2030 | 1.39 | 12 | -10 | -1.08 – 3.86 |
| 2035 | 0.78 | 12 | -10 | -2.72 – 4.27 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.8k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.8k | 3.3k | 2.4k | 2.7k – 2.9k |
| 2028 | 2.8k | 3.6k | 2.1k | 2.6k – 3k |
| 2030 | 2.8k | 3.8k | 1.9k | 2.4k – 3.1k |
| 2035 | 2.7k | 4.2k | 1.4k | 2.1k – 3.3k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed34.81(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 35.49 | 39.66 | 31.32 | 34.28 – 36.69 |
| 2028 | 36.83 | 44.05 | 29.61 | 33.96 – 39.71 |
| 2030 | 38.18 | 47.5 | 28.86 | 33.7 – 42.66 |
| 2035 | 41.54 | 54.72 | 28.36 | 32.88 – 50.21 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.84(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.64 | 7.08 | -4.19 | 0.41 – 2.87 |
| 2028 | -0.44 | 8.98 | -5 | -2.58 – 1.69 |
| 2030 | -2.53 | 9.63 | -5 | -5 – 0.37 |
| 2035 | -5 | 12.2 | -5 | -5 – -0.39 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20.54(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20.67 | 22.34 | 19.23 | 20.03 – 21.31 |
| 2028 | 20.96 | 23.85 | 18.46 | 19.41 – 22.52 |
| 2030 | 21.26 | 24.98 | 18.03 | 18.85 – 23.67 |
| 2035 | 22 | 27.26 | 17.43 | 17.43 – 26.56 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed748.5m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 745.2m | 780.4m | 712.5m | 722.1m – 768.3m |
| 2028 | 758.5m | 794.3m | 725.2m | 702.3m – 814.6m |
| 2030 | 771.8m | 808.2m | 737.9m | 684.1m – 859.4m |
| 2035 | 805m | 843m | 769.7m | 638m – 972m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.31(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.64 | 5.91 | 1.93 | 3.29 – 3.98 |
| 2028 | 4.59 | 8.53 | 1.64 | 3.88 – 5.31 |
| 2030 | 5.55 | 10.63 | 1.74 | 4.47 – 6.63 |
| 2035 | 7.95 | 15 | 2.56 | 5.78 – 10.12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.02(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 12.76 | 21.39 | 4.13 | 11.24 – 14.29 |
| 2027 | 16.02 | 30.97 | 1.07 | 12.96 – 19.08 |
| 2029 | 17.62 | 36 | 0 | 13.25 – 21.98 |
| 2034 | 18.89 | 36 | 0 | 11.69 – 26.09 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.69(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.47 | 9.06 | 7.88 | 8.21 – 8.73 |
| 2028 | 8.02 | 9.05 | 7 | 7.43 – 8.62 |
| 2030 | 7.58 | 8.9 | 6.26 | 6.72 – 8.44 |
| 2035 | 6.46 | 8.33 | 4.59 | 5.12 – 7.8 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/TMN · API docs
