Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Tonga: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 36/100); the economy is in expansion; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 17 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 2.89 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.28, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.24) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2007-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-6% skill vs naive; realized ±0.5946 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Tonga: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-7.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -5.1 | -1.51 | -8.69 | -5.92 – -4.29 |
| 2028 | -4.7 | 1.52 | -10.93 | -6.2 – -3.21 |
| 2030 | -4.31 | 3.73 | -12.34 | -6.29 – -2.32 |
| 2035 | -3.31 | 8.05 | -14.67 | -6.16 – -0.46 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16.9(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 15.56 | 23.47 | 8.71 | 14.18 – 16.94 |
| 2027 | 12.89 | 26.59 | 1.01 | 10.31 – 15.46 |
| 2029 | 10.21 | 27.9 | 0 | 6.87 – 13.56 |
| 2034 | 3.53 | 28.55 | 0 | 0 – 7.67 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed679.2m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 708.6m | 745.8m | 676.4m | 686.7m – 730.6m |
| 2028 | 781.4m | 845.3m | 726.1m | 723.6m – 839.3m |
| 2030 | 854.3m | 936.7m | 782.8m | 757.3m – 951.3m |
| 2035 | 1bn | 1.2bn | 935.3m | 821.4m – 1.3bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.8(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.89 | 8.47 | -1.94 | 1.92 – 3.87 |
| 2028 | 3.29 | 12 | -5.08 | 1.52 – 5.06 |
| 2030 | 3.68 | 12 | -7.13 | 1.31 – 6.05 |
| 2035 | 4.67 | 12 | -10 | 0.98 – 8.35 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.5k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.8k | 7.2k | 6.5k | 6.6k – 7.1k |
| 2028 | 7.6k | 8.2k | 7k | 7k – 8.1k |
| 2030 | 8.3k | 9.1k | 7.6k | 7.4k – 9.2k |
| 2035 | 10.1k | 11.3k | 9.1k | 8k – 12.2k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed34.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 25.38 | 29.65 | 20.46 | 24.32 – 26.45 |
| 2028 | 21.35 | 28.75 | 12.82 | 19.19 – 23.52 |
| 2030 | 17.32 | 26.87 | 6.31 | 14.47 – 20.18 |
| 2035 | 7.24 | 20.74 | 0 | 4.01 – 10.48 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed60.68(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 59.96 | 66.79 | 53.13 | 57.96 – 61.97 |
| 2027 | 58.52 | 70.35 | 46.7 | 53.9 – 63.14 |
| 2029 | 57.09 | 72.36 | 41.82 | 50.18 – 63.99 |
| 2034 | 53.49 | 75.08 | 31.9 | 41.63 – 65.35 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.59(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.91 | 15.73 | -2.54 | 4.84 – 8.98 |
| 2028 | 10.28 | 25.57 | -5 | 6.4 – 14.17 |
| 2030 | 13.66 | 33.39 | -5 | 8.19 – 19.13 |
| 2035 | 22.1 | 50 | -5 | 12.38 – 31.82 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed26.15(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 25.33 | 34.03 | 17.8 | 23.69 – 26.98 |
| 2027 | 23.69 | 38.75 | 10.63 | 20.4 – 26.98 |
| 2029 | 22.04 | 41.49 | 5.18 | 17.5 – 26.58 |
| 2034 | 17.92 | 45.42 | 0 | 11.12 – 24.71 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed103.7k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 103.8k | 108.8k | 99.3k | 100.6k – 107.1k |
| 2028 | 103.4k | 108.3k | 98.8k | 95.7k – 111k |
| 2030 | 102.9k | 107.8k | 98.4k | 91.2k – 114.6k |
| 2035 | 101.7k | 106.5k | 97.2k | 80.6k – 122.8k |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.31(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4 | 11.4 | -1.55 | 3.01 – 4.99 |
| 2028 | 5.57 | 15 | -4.05 | 3.7 – 7.44 |
| 2030 | 7.14 | 15 | -5.27 | 4.5 – 9.78 |
| 2035 | 11.07 | 15 | -6.49 | 6.37 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed412.7m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 425.2m | 487.7m | 362.7m | 408.9m – 441.6m |
| 2028 | 460m | 568.2m | 351.7m | 421.3m – 498.6m |
| 2030 | 494.7m | 634.5m | 354.9m | 433.7m – 555.6m |
| 2035 | 581.5m | 779.2m | 383.8m | 458.2m – 704.8m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.8(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 10.48 | 13.5 | 7.47 | 9.85 – 11.11 |
| 2027 | 10.11 | 15.33 | 4.89 | 8.83 – 11.4 |
| 2029 | 9.93 | 16.67 | 3.19 | 8.1 – 11.76 |
| 2034 | 9.78 | 19.32 | 0.25 | 6.76 – 12.81 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed412.7m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 425.2m | 487.7m | 362.7m | 408.9m – 441.6m |
| 2028 | 460m | 568.2m | 351.7m | 421.3m – 498.6m |
| 2030 | 494.7m | 634.5m | 354.9m | 433.7m – 555.6m |
| 2035 | 581.5m | 779.2m | 383.8m | 458.2m – 704.8m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.01(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.88 | 2.5 | 1.27 | 1.76 – 2.01 |
| 2028 | 1.64 | 2.71 | 0.57 | 1.4 – 1.88 |
| 2030 | 1.39 | 2.77 | 0.01 | 1.07 – 1.72 |
| 2035 | 0.78 | 2.73 | 0 | 0.32 – 1.24 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/TON · API docs
