Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Trinidad and Tobago: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 49/100); the economy is in contraction; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 17 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at -0.95 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.02, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.10) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Contraction
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-1% skill vs naive; realized ±1.7475 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Trinidad and Tobago: forward projections across 13 macro indicators, horizons 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2033, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed3.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.32 | 20 | -13.37 | -0.14 – 6.78 |
| 2028 | 3.76 | 30 | -25.14 | -2.32 – 9.84 |
| 2030 | 4.2 | 30 | -30 | -3.75 – 12.14 |
| 2035 | 5.29 | 30 | -30 | -6.32 – 16.9 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed25.9bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 25.7bn | 31bn | 21bn | 24.6bn – 26.7bn |
| 2028 | 25.3bn | 34.6bn | 17.2bn | 23bn – 27.6bn |
| 2030 | 24.9bn | 36.9bn | 14.5bn | 21.5bn – 28.3bn |
| 2035 | 23.9bn | 40.9bn | 9.2bn | 18.1bn – 29.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-0.79(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.95 | 6.75 | -7.62 | -2.25 – 0.35 |
| 2028 | -1.25 | 12 | -10 | -3.54 – 1.03 |
| 2030 | -1.56 | 12 | -10 | -4.55 – 1.43 |
| 2035 | -2.32 | 12 | -10 | -6.75 – 2.11 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed19k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18.8k | 22.7k | 15.3k | 18k – 19.5k |
| 2028 | 18.5k | 25.4k | 12.6k | 16.8k – 20.2k |
| 2030 | 18.2k | 27.1k | 10.5k | 15.7k – 20.7k |
| 2035 | 17.5k | 30.1k | 6.7k | 13.2k – 21.8k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed84.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 87.66 | 100.93 | 72.35 | 84.21 – 91.1 |
| 2028 | 94.57 | 117.55 | 68.05 | 86.5 – 102.65 |
| 2030 | 101.48 | 131.15 | 67.25 | 88.8 – 114.17 |
| 2035 | 118.77 | 160.73 | 70.36 | 93.31 – 144.23 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.99(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.55 | 6.9 | -4.19 | 0.34 – 2.76 |
| 2028 | 2.2 | 11.48 | -5 | 0.04 – 4.37 |
| 2030 | 2.86 | 14.83 | -5 | -0.02 – 5.74 |
| 2035 | 4.49 | 21.43 | -5 | 0.02 – 8.97 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed18.99(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 18.48 | 22.26 | 15.2 | 17.64 – 19.31 |
| 2026 | 17.3 | 23.85 | 11.62 | 15.53 – 19.07 |
| 2028 | 16.12 | 24.58 | 8.79 | 13.62 – 18.62 |
| 2033 | 13.18 | 25.14 | 2.8 | 9.36 – 16.99 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.4m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.4m | 1.4m | 1.3m | 1.3m – 1.4m |
| 2028 | 1.4m | 1.4m | 1.3m | 1.3m – 1.5m |
| 2030 | 1.4m | 1.4m | 1.3m | 1.2m – 1.5m |
| 2035 | 1.4m | 1.4m | 1.3m | 1.1m – 1.6m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-0.37(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.19 | 10.51 | -7.55 | -1.11 – 1.5 |
| 2028 | 1.31 | 15 | -10 | -0.99 – 3.61 |
| 2030 | 2.43 | 15 | -10 | -0.65 – 5.51 |
| 2035 | 5.22 | 15 | -10 | 0.31 – 10.14 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.4bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 5.1bn | 5.8bn | 4.5bn | 4.9bn – 5.3bn |
| 2027 | 4.3bn | 5.4bn | 3.2bn | 3.9bn – 4.7bn |
| 2029 | 3.5bn | 4.9bn | 2.1bn | 3bn – 4bn |
| 2034 | 1.5bn | 3.5bn | 0 | 932.7m – 2bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.73(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 6.59 | 9.65 | 3.54 | 6.02 – 7.17 |
| 2027 | 7.62 | 12.91 | 2.34 | 6.45 – 8.8 |
| 2029 | 8.13 | 14.95 | 1.3 | 6.43 – 9.82 |
| 2034 | 8.53 | 18.18 | 0 | 5.69 – 11.37 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.6bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 5.3bn | 5.9bn | 4.7bn | 5.1bn – 5.5bn |
| 2027 | 4.5bn | 5.6bn | 3.4bn | 4.1bn – 4.9bn |
| 2029 | 3.7bn | 5.1bn | 2.3bn | 3.2bn – 4.2bn |
| 2034 | 1.8bn | 3.8bn | 0 | 1.2bn – 2.4bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.33(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.08 | 3.93 | 2.22 | 2.9 – 3.26 |
| 2028 | 2.58 | 4.06 | 1.09 | 2.22 – 2.93 |
| 2030 | 2.07 | 3.99 | 0.16 | 1.61 – 2.53 |
| 2035 | 0.82 | 3.52 | 0 | 0.24 – 1.39 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/TTO · API docs
