Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Trinidad and Tobago: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 48/100); the economy is in contraction; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 17 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at -0.95 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.04, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.14) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Contraction
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-2% skill vs naive; realized ±1.1475 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Trinidad and Tobago: forward projections across 13 macro indicators, horizons 2024, 2026, 2028, 2030, 2033, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed5.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.6 | 21.73 | -10.54 | 2.21 – 8.98 |
| 2028 | 6.79 | 30 | -21.16 | 0.76 – 12.82 |
| 2030 | 7.98 | 30 | -28.11 | -0.03 – 15.98 |
| 2035 | 10.95 | 30 | -30 | -1.21 – 23.12 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed25.9bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 25.7bn | 31bn | 21bn | 24.6bn – 26.7bn |
| 2028 | 25.3bn | 34.6bn | 17.2bn | 23bn – 27.6bn |
| 2030 | 24.9bn | 36.9bn | 14.5bn | 21.5bn – 28.3bn |
| 2035 | 23.9bn | 40.9bn | 9.2bn | 18.1bn – 29.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-0.79(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.95 | 6.75 | -7.62 | -2.25 – 0.35 |
| 2028 | -1.25 | 12 | -10 | -3.54 – 1.03 |
| 2030 | -1.56 | 12 | -10 | -4.55 – 1.43 |
| 2035 | -2.32 | 12 | -10 | -6.75 – 2.11 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed19k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18.8k | 22.7k | 15.3k | 18k – 19.5k |
| 2028 | 18.5k | 25.4k | 12.6k | 16.8k – 20.2k |
| 2030 | 18.2k | 27.1k | 10.5k | 15.7k – 20.7k |
| 2035 | 17.5k | 30.1k | 6.7k | 13.2k – 21.8k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed84.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 87.41 | 100.6 | 72.18 | 83.98 – 90.83 |
| 2028 | 94.22 | 117.07 | 67.85 | 86.18 – 102.25 |
| 2030 | 101.03 | 130.52 | 66.99 | 88.41 – 113.65 |
| 2035 | 118.05 | 159.77 | 69.92 | 92.75 – 143.36 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.99(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.55 | 6.9 | -4.19 | 0.34 – 2.76 |
| 2028 | 2.2 | 11.48 | -5 | 0.04 – 4.37 |
| 2030 | 2.86 | 14.83 | -5 | -0.02 – 5.74 |
| 2035 | 4.49 | 21.43 | -5 | 0.02 – 8.97 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed18.99(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 18.48 | 22.26 | 15.2 | 17.64 – 19.31 |
| 2026 | 17.3 | 23.85 | 11.62 | 15.53 – 19.07 |
| 2028 | 16.12 | 24.58 | 8.79 | 13.62 – 18.62 |
| 2033 | 13.18 | 25.14 | 2.8 | 9.36 – 16.99 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.4m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.4m | 1.4m | 1.3m | 1.3m – 1.4m |
| 2028 | 1.4m | 1.4m | 1.3m | 1.3m – 1.5m |
| 2030 | 1.4m | 1.4m | 1.3m | 1.2m – 1.5m |
| 2035 | 1.4m | 1.4m | 1.3m | 1.1m – 1.6m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-0.37(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.19 | 10.51 | -7.55 | -1.11 – 1.5 |
| 2028 | 1.31 | 15 | -10 | -0.99 – 3.61 |
| 2030 | 2.43 | 15 | -10 | -0.65 – 5.51 |
| 2035 | 5.22 | 15 | -10 | 0.31 – 10.14 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.7bn | 5.3bn | 4.2bn | 4.6bn – 4.9bn |
| 2028 | 3.8bn | 4.8bn | 2.8bn | 3.5bn – 4.1bn |
| 2030 | 2.9bn | 4.1bn | 1.6bn | 2.5bn – 3.3bn |
| 2035 | 607.1m | 2.4bn | 0 | 240.6m – 973.6m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.5(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.25 | 9.33 | 3.16 | 5.67 – 6.82 |
| 2028 | 7.14 | 12.49 | 1.8 | 5.98 – 8.3 |
| 2030 | 7.58 | 14.48 | 0.68 | 5.92 – 9.24 |
| 2035 | 7.93 | 17.69 | 0 | 5.17 – 10.69 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5bn | 5.6bn | 4.5bn | 4.9bn – 5.2bn |
| 2028 | 4.2bn | 5.1bn | 3.2bn | 3.8bn – 4.5bn |
| 2030 | 3.4bn | 4.6bn | 2.1bn | 2.9bn – 3.8bn |
| 2035 | 1.3bn | 3bn | 0 | 800.9m – 1.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.33(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.08 | 3.93 | 2.22 | 2.9 – 3.26 |
| 2028 | 2.58 | 4.06 | 1.09 | 2.22 – 2.93 |
| 2030 | 2.07 | 3.99 | 0.16 | 1.61 – 2.53 |
| 2035 | 0.82 | 3.52 | 0 | 0.24 – 1.39 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-11-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/TTO · API docs
