Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Trinidad and Tobago: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 38/100); the economy is in expansion; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 17 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 0.3 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.24, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment +0.14) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-1% skill vs naive; realized ±5.8455 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Trinidad and Tobago: forward projections across 13 macro indicators, horizons 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2033, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed3.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.05 | 20.67 | -12.58 | 0.59 – 7.5 |
| 2029 | 4.54 | 30 | -24.25 | -1.56 – 10.63 |
| 2031 | 5.03 | 30 | -30 | -2.96 – 13.01 |
| 2036 | 6.25 | 30 | -30 | -5.47 – 17.98 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed25.9bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 27.3bn | 32.7bn | 22.7bn | 26.2bn – 28.4bn |
| 2029 | 28.5bn | 37.7bn | 20.4bn | 26bn – 30.9bn |
| 2031 | 29.6bn | 41.6bn | 19.3bn | 25.8bn – 33.4bn |
| 2036 | 32.5bn | 49.4bn | 17.9bn | 25.3bn – 39.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-0.79(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 0.3 | 4.16 | -3.04 | -0.36 – 0.96 |
| 2029 | -0.68 | 6.01 | -6.47 | -1.84 – 0.49 |
| 2031 | -1.66 | 6.97 | -9.13 | -3.23 – -0.09 |
| 2036 | -4.11 | 8.09 | -10 | -6.8 – -1.42 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed19k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 18.8k | 22.8k | 15.4k | 18k – 19.6k |
| 2029 | 19.2k | 26.1k | 13.3k | 17.5k – 21k |
| 2031 | 19.6k | 28.5k | 12k | 17k – 22.3k |
| 2036 | 20.7k | 33.2k | 9.9k | 15.9k – 25.5k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed84.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 87.12 | 100.54 | 71.65 | 83.67 – 90.58 |
| 2029 | 93.17 | 116.4 | 66.36 | 85.12 – 101.22 |
| 2031 | 99.22 | 129.21 | 64.61 | 86.66 – 111.77 |
| 2036 | 114.33 | 156.75 | 65.39 | 89.51 – 139.15 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.99(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.19 | 7.43 | -3.42 | 0.99 – 3.39 |
| 2029 | 3.32 | 12.4 | -5 | 1.15 – 5.49 |
| 2031 | 4.45 | 16.17 | -5 | 1.49 – 7.4 |
| 2036 | 7.27 | 23.84 | -5 | 2.43 – 12.1 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed18.99(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 18.48 | 22.26 | 15.2 | 17.64 – 19.31 |
| 2026 | 17.3 | 23.85 | 11.62 | 15.53 – 19.07 |
| 2028 | 16.12 | 24.58 | 8.79 | 13.62 – 18.62 |
| 2033 | 13.18 | 25.14 | 2.8 | 9.36 – 16.99 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.4m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.4m | 1.5m | 1.4m | 1.4m – 1.5m |
| 2029 | 1.5m | 1.6m | 1.5m | 1.4m – 1.6m |
| 2031 | 1.6m | 1.7m | 1.5m | 1.4m – 1.8m |
| 2036 | 1.8m | 2m | 1.7m | 1.4m – 2.2m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-0.37(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.19 | 10.51 | -7.55 | -1.11 – 1.5 |
| 2028 | 1.31 | 15 | -10 | -0.99 – 3.61 |
| 2030 | 2.43 | 15 | -10 | -0.65 – 5.51 |
| 2035 | 5.22 | 15 | -10 | 0.31 – 10.14 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.4bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 5.1bn | 5.8bn | 4.5bn | 4.9bn – 5.3bn |
| 2027 | 4.3bn | 5.4bn | 3.2bn | 3.9bn – 4.7bn |
| 2029 | 3.5bn | 4.9bn | 2.1bn | 3bn – 4bn |
| 2034 | 1.5bn | 3.5bn | 0 | 932.7m – 2bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.73(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 6.59 | 9.65 | 3.54 | 6.02 – 7.17 |
| 2027 | 7.62 | 12.91 | 2.34 | 6.45 – 8.8 |
| 2029 | 8.13 | 14.95 | 1.3 | 6.43 – 9.82 |
| 2034 | 8.53 | 18.18 | 0 | 5.69 – 11.37 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.6bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 5.3bn | 5.9bn | 4.7bn | 5.1bn – 5.5bn |
| 2027 | 4.5bn | 5.6bn | 3.4bn | 4.1bn – 4.9bn |
| 2029 | 3.7bn | 5.1bn | 2.3bn | 3.2bn – 4.2bn |
| 2034 | 1.8bn | 3.8bn | 0 | 1.2bn – 2.4bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.33(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.07 | 5.25 | 2.9 | 3.83 – 4.32 |
| 2029 | 3.82 | 5.86 | 1.78 | 3.32 – 4.31 |
| 2031 | 3.57 | 6.19 | 0.94 | 2.88 – 4.25 |
| 2036 | 2.93 | 6.65 | 0 | 1.89 – 3.97 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/TTO · API docs
