Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Tunisia: macro conditions look cautious (pressure 68/100); the economy is in slowdown; 3 turning-point signals flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 2.13 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as cautious (sentiment -0.36, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: cautious (projected sentiment -0.30) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-6% skill vs naive; realized ±4.8845 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Tunisia: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-4.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -3.45 | 2.29 | -9.19 | -4.67 – -2.22 |
| 2029 | -1.94 | 8 | -11.88 | -4.06 – 0.18 |
| 2031 | -0.44 | 12.39 | -13.27 | -3.14 – 2.26 |
| 2036 | 3.32 | 21.47 | -14.82 | -0.91 – 7.56 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed46.65(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 47.64 | 58.65 | 38.1 | 45.31 – 49.98 |
| 2028 | 49.62 | 68.68 | 33.1 | 44.52 – 54.72 |
| 2030 | 51.6 | 76.21 | 30.27 | 43.96 – 59.24 |
| 2035 | 56.55 | 91.34 | 26.39 | 42.53 – 70.56 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed57.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 63.7bn | 69bn | 59.2bn | 61.8bn – 65.7bn |
| 2029 | 71.1bn | 80.2bn | 63.2bn | 65.9bn – 76.4bn |
| 2031 | 78.5bn | 90.2bn | 68.3bn | 69.6bn – 87.4bn |
| 2036 | 96.9bn | 113.5bn | 82.5bn | 76.8bn – 117bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.49(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.13 | 5.4 | -0.71 | 1.55 – 2.71 |
| 2029 | 2.16 | 7.82 | -2.75 | 1.11 – 3.2 |
| 2031 | 2.18 | 9.49 | -4.15 | 0.79 – 3.58 |
| 2036 | 2.26 | 12 | -6.7 | 0.17 – 4.34 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.7k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.1k | 5.5k | 4.7k | 5k – 5.3k |
| 2029 | 5.7k | 6.4k | 5k | 5.2k – 6.1k |
| 2031 | 6.2k | 7.2k | 5.4k | 5.5k – 6.9k |
| 2036 | 7.6k | 8.9k | 6.4k | 6k – 9.1k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed84.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 86.92 | 95.26 | 77.29 | 84.22 – 89.61 |
| 2029 | 90.96 | 105.41 | 74.29 | 84.23 – 97.69 |
| 2031 | 95 | 113.65 | 73.48 | 84.21 – 105.78 |
| 2036 | 105.09 | 131.47 | 74.66 | 83.29 – 126.89 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed54.79(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 55.1 | 68.81 | 41.39 | 52.12 – 58.08 |
| 2028 | 55.71 | 79.46 | 31.96 | 49.4 – 62.02 |
| 2030 | 56.32 | 86.98 | 25.66 | 47.12 – 65.52 |
| 2035 | 57.84 | 101.2 | 14.48 | 41.95 – 73.73 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.15(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 7.27 | 11.14 | 3.11 | 6.29 – 8.24 |
| 2029 | 9.16 | 15.87 | 1.96 | 7.23 – 11.08 |
| 2031 | 11.04 | 19.71 | 1.76 | 8.24 – 13.85 |
| 2036 | 15.77 | 28.02 | 2.63 | 10.53 – 21.01 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed15.21(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 14.88 | 17.46 | 12.64 | 14.27 – 15.48 |
| 2027 | 13.93 | 18.4 | 10.05 | 12.62 – 15.24 |
| 2029 | 12.98 | 18.76 | 7.98 | 11.12 – 14.85 |
| 2034 | 10.62 | 18.79 | 3.54 | 7.75 – 13.49 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed12.3m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 12.4m | 13m | 11.9m | 12m – 12.8m |
| 2029 | 12.5m | 13.1m | 11.9m | 11.5m – 13.4m |
| 2031 | 12.5m | 13.1m | 12m | 11.1m – 14m |
| 2036 | 12.7m | 13.3m | 12.2m | 10.1m – 15.4m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.58(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.29 | 9.24 | -2.93 | 1.38 – 3.19 |
| 2028 | 3.84 | 15 | -5.19 | 2.15 – 5.53 |
| 2030 | 5.4 | 15 | -6.27 | 3.02 – 7.78 |
| 2035 | 9.29 | 15 | -7.21 | 5.05 – 13.52 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.8bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 9bn | 11.3bn | 6.7bn | 8.5bn – 9.5bn |
| 2027 | 9.6bn | 13.6bn | 5.6bn | 8.5bn – 10.7bn |
| 2029 | 10.2bn | 15.4bn | 5bn | 8.6bn – 11.8bn |
| 2034 | 11.7bn | 19bn | 4.4bn | 8.7bn – 14.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.51(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 4.48 | 6.91 | 2.05 | 4.04 – 4.92 |
| 2027 | 4.44 | 8.65 | 0.23 | 3.59 – 5.3 |
| 2029 | 4.43 | 9.86 | 0 | 3.24 – 5.61 |
| 2034 | 4.41 | 12.1 | 0 | 2.53 – 6.29 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.3bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 9.6bn | 12bn | 7.2bn | 9.1bn – 10.1bn |
| 2027 | 10.3bn | 14.4bn | 6.2bn | 9.2bn – 11.4bn |
| 2029 | 11bn | 16.3bn | 5.7bn | 9.3bn – 12.7bn |
| 2034 | 12.8bn | 20.3bn | 5.2bn | 9.6bn – 15.9bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed15.11(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 14.63 | 15.76 | 13.5 | 14.18 – 15.08 |
| 2028 | 13.67 | 15.63 | 11.71 | 12.66 – 14.68 |
| 2030 | 12.71 | 15.24 | 10.18 | 11.27 – 14.15 |
| 2035 | 10.31 | 13.89 | 6.74 | 8.12 – 12.51 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/TUN · API docs
