Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Tunisia: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 51/100); the economy is in expansion; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 3.59 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment -0.02, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment -0.04) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-6% skill vs naive; realized ±1.1865 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Tunisia: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-4.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -2.17 | 3.8 | -8.14 | -3.42 – -0.91 |
| 2028 | 0.1 | 10.44 | -10.24 | -2.06 – 2.26 |
| 2030 | 2.37 | 15.71 | -10.98 | -0.55 – 5.28 |
| 2035 | 8.03 | 26.91 | -10.84 | 2.9 – 13.17 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed46.65(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 47.64 | 58.65 | 38.1 | 45.31 – 49.98 |
| 2028 | 49.62 | 68.68 | 33.1 | 44.52 – 54.72 |
| 2030 | 51.6 | 76.21 | 30.27 | 43.96 – 59.24 |
| 2035 | 56.55 | 91.34 | 26.39 | 42.53 – 70.56 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed57.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 60.1bn | 65.9bn | 55.1bn | 58.3bn – 62bn |
| 2028 | 66.6bn | 76.7bn | 57.9bn | 61.7bn – 71.5bn |
| 2030 | 73.1bn | 86.1bn | 61.9bn | 64.8bn – 81.4bn |
| 2035 | 89.3bn | 107.7bn | 73.5bn | 70.8bn – 107.9bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.49(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.59 | 12 | -7.18 | 1.46 – 5.71 |
| 2028 | 6 | 12 | -10 | 2.13 – 9.88 |
| 2030 | 8.42 | 12 | -10 | 3.12 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 3.53 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.7k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.8k | 5.3k | 4.4k | 4.7k – 5k |
| 2028 | 5.3k | 6.1k | 4.6k | 4.9k – 5.7k |
| 2030 | 5.8k | 6.9k | 4.9k | 5.1k – 6.4k |
| 2035 | 7k | 8.5k | 5.7k | 5.5k – 8.4k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed86.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 84.36 | 93.28 | 74.07 | 81.64 – 87.08 |
| 2028 | 89.69 | 105.14 | 71.86 | 83 – 96.37 |
| 2030 | 95.01 | 114.96 | 71.99 | 84.22 – 105.8 |
| 2035 | 108.32 | 136.54 | 75.77 | 85.85 – 130.79 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed54.79(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 55.1 | 68.81 | 41.39 | 52.12 – 58.08 |
| 2028 | 55.71 | 79.46 | 31.96 | 49.4 – 62.02 |
| 2030 | 56.32 | 86.98 | 25.66 | 47.12 – 65.52 |
| 2035 | 57.84 | 101.2 | 14.48 | 41.95 – 73.73 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.15(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.47 | 8.16 | 0.52 | 3.58 – 5.36 |
| 2028 | 1.59 | 7.98 | -5 | 0.1 – 3.09 |
| 2030 | -1.28 | 6.96 | -5 | -3.22 – 0.65 |
| 2035 | -5 | 6.66 | -5 | -5 – -1.62 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed15.21(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 14.88 | 17.46 | 12.64 | 14.27 – 15.48 |
| 2027 | 13.93 | 18.4 | 10.05 | 12.62 – 15.24 |
| 2029 | 12.98 | 18.76 | 7.98 | 11.12 – 14.85 |
| 2034 | 10.62 | 18.79 | 3.54 | 7.75 – 13.49 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed12.3m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 12.3m | 12.9m | 11.8m | 11.9m – 12.7m |
| 2028 | 12.4m | 13m | 11.9m | 11.5m – 13.3m |
| 2030 | 12.5m | 13.1m | 11.9m | 11.1m – 13.9m |
| 2035 | 12.7m | 13.3m | 12.1m | 10.1m – 15.3m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.58(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.29 | 9.24 | -2.93 | 1.38 – 3.19 |
| 2028 | 3.84 | 15 | -5.19 | 2.15 – 5.53 |
| 2030 | 5.4 | 15 | -6.27 | 3.02 – 7.78 |
| 2035 | 9.29 | 15 | -7.21 | 5.05 – 13.52 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.8bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 9bn | 11.3bn | 6.7bn | 8.5bn – 9.5bn |
| 2027 | 9.6bn | 13.6bn | 5.6bn | 8.5bn – 10.7bn |
| 2029 | 10.2bn | 15.4bn | 5bn | 8.6bn – 11.8bn |
| 2034 | 11.7bn | 19bn | 4.4bn | 8.7bn – 14.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.5(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 4.47 | 6.91 | 2.04 | 4.03 – 4.92 |
| 2027 | 4.44 | 8.65 | 0.23 | 3.58 – 5.3 |
| 2029 | 4.42 | 9.86 | 0 | 3.24 – 5.61 |
| 2034 | 4.41 | 12.1 | 0 | 2.53 – 6.29 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.3bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 9.6bn | 12bn | 7.2bn | 9.1bn – 10.1bn |
| 2027 | 10.3bn | 14.4bn | 6.2bn | 9.2bn – 11.4bn |
| 2029 | 11bn | 16.3bn | 5.7bn | 9.3bn – 12.7bn |
| 2034 | 12.8bn | 20.3bn | 5.2bn | 9.6bn – 15.9bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed15.11(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 14.63 | 15.76 | 13.5 | 14.18 – 15.08 |
| 2028 | 13.67 | 15.63 | 11.71 | 12.66 – 14.68 |
| 2030 | 12.71 | 15.24 | 10.18 | 11.27 – 14.15 |
| 2035 | 10.31 | 13.89 | 6.74 | 8.12 – 12.51 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/TUN · API docs
