Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Türkiye: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 43/100); the economy is in expansion; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 21 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 3.06 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.14, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.06) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-06-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-06-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-10% skill vs naive; realized ±0.3646 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Türkiye: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-2.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -2.11 | 4.85 | -9.06 | -3.56 – -0.66 |
| 2028 | -2.53 | 9.52 | -14.57 | -5.1 – 0.05 |
| 2030 | -2.94 | 12.61 | -18.49 | -6.35 – 0.47 |
| 2035 | -3.98 | 18.01 | -25.98 | -9.11 – 1.14 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed24.85(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 24.1 | 33.07 | 16.33 | 22.43 – 25.77 |
| 2028 | 22.61 | 38.15 | 9.14 | 19.3 – 25.91 |
| 2030 | 21.11 | 41.17 | 3.72 | 16.55 – 25.66 |
| 2035 | 17.37 | 45.74 | 0 | 10.54 – 24.2 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.6T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.7T | 2T | 1.6T | 1.7T – 1.8T |
| 2028 | 2.1T | 2.5T | 1.8T | 1.9T – 2.3T |
| 2030 | 2.5T | 3T | 2T | 2.2T – 2.7T |
| 2035 | 3.4T | 4.1T | 2.8T | 2.7T – 4.1T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.6(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.06 | 12 | -6.68 | 1.14 – 4.99 |
| 2028 | 1.81 | 12 | -10 | -1.53 – 5.14 |
| 2030 | 0.55 | 12 | -10 | -3.72 – 4.82 |
| 2035 | -2.6 | 12 | -10 | -8.94 – 3.74 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed18.6k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20.2k | 22.9k | 17.9k | 19.6k – 20.9k |
| 2028 | 24.3k | 28.9k | 20.3k | 22.5k – 26.1k |
| 2030 | 28.4k | 34.3k | 23.2k | 25.1k – 31.6k |
| 2035 | 38.5k | 46.9k | 31.3k | 30.5k – 46.5k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23.34 | 31.3 | 14.14 | 21.74 – 24.93 |
| 2028 | 22.61 | 36.41 | 6.68 | 19.4 – 25.82 |
| 2030 | 21.88 | 39.7 | 1.32 | 17.39 – 26.37 |
| 2035 | 20.06 | 45.25 | 0 | 12.97 – 27.14 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed25.08(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 24.6 | 34.39 | 14.8 | 22.7 – 26.49 |
| 2028 | 23.62 | 40.59 | 6.64 | 19.89 – 27.35 |
| 2030 | 22.64 | 44.55 | 0.73 | 17.47 – 27.8 |
| 2035 | 20.19 | 51.18 | 0 | 12.22 – 28.16 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed34.88(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 25.07 | 50 | -5 | 12.51 – 37.63 |
| 2028 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 16.3 |
| 2030 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 22.59 |
| 2035 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 34.25 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed30.59(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 30.69 | 35.05 | 26.92 | 29.58 – 31.8 |
| 2028 | 31 | 38.54 | 24.46 | 28.43 – 33.56 |
| 2030 | 31.31 | 41.04 | 22.87 | 27.41 – 35.2 |
| 2035 | 32.08 | 45.84 | 20.14 | 24.98 – 39.17 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed85.9m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 85.8m | 89.8m | 82m | 83.1m – 88.4m |
| 2028 | 86.2m | 90.2m | 82.4m | 79.8m – 92.6m |
| 2030 | 86.6m | 90.7m | 82.8m | 76.7m – 96.4m |
| 2035 | 87.6m | 91.7m | 83.7m | 69.4m – 105.7m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.96(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.06 | 9.86 | -3.79 | 1.05 – 3.07 |
| 2028 | 2.15 | 15 | -7.98 | 0.36 – 3.95 |
| 2030 | 2.25 | 15 | -10 | -0.11 – 4.61 |
| 2035 | 2.49 | 15 | -10 | -1 – 5.97 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed71.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 70.7bn | 103.2bn | 38.1bn | 64.6bn – 76.8bn |
| 2028 | 68.2bn | 124.6bn | 11.8bn | 56.3bn – 80.1bn |
| 2030 | 65.8bn | 138.6bn | 0 | 49.4bn – 82.2bn |
| 2035 | 59.6bn | 162.6bn | 0 | 34.3bn – 84.9bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.13(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.99 | 6.1 | 3.87 | 4.74 – 5.24 |
| 2028 | 4.82 | 6.74 | 2.89 | 4.29 – 5.34 |
| 2030 | 4.73 | 7.22 | 2.25 | 3.98 – 5.49 |
| 2035 | 4.67 | 8.18 | 1.15 | 3.38 – 5.95 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed185.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 198.2bn | 221.2bn | 175.2bn | 191.5bn – 204.9bn |
| 2028 | 230.5bn | 270.3bn | 190.7bn | 213.3bn – 247.6bn |
| 2030 | 262.8bn | 314.1bn | 211.4bn | 232.9bn – 292.6bn |
| 2035 | 343.5bn | 416.1bn | 270.8bn | 272.2bn – 414.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.52(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.56 | 8.41 | 6.7 | 7.3 – 7.81 |
| 2028 | 5.63 | 7.11 | 4.15 | 5.13 – 6.13 |
| 2030 | 3.7 | 5.62 | 1.79 | 3.11 – 4.29 |
| 2035 | 0 | 2.71 | 0 | 0 – 0.57 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/TUR · API docs
