Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Türkiye: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 49/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 20 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 3 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.02, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment +0.04) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-05-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-11% skill vs naive; realized ±5.5932 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Türkiye: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-2.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -3.04 | 3.25 | -9.33 | -4.37 – -1.71 |
| 2029 | -3.53 | 7.37 | -14.42 | -5.92 – -1.13 |
| 2031 | -4.01 | 10.06 | -18.07 | -7.2 – -0.82 |
| 2036 | -5.22 | 14.67 | -25.11 | -10.11 – -0.32 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed24.85(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 24.1 | 33.07 | 16.33 | 22.43 – 25.77 |
| 2028 | 22.61 | 38.15 | 9.14 | 19.3 – 25.91 |
| 2030 | 21.11 | 41.17 | 3.72 | 16.55 – 25.66 |
| 2035 | 17.37 | 45.74 | 0 | 10.54 – 24.2 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.6T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.8T | 2T | 1.6T | 1.7T – 1.8T |
| 2029 | 2.1T | 2.4T | 1.8T | 1.9T – 2.3T |
| 2031 | 2.4T | 2.9T | 2T | 2.1T – 2.7T |
| 2036 | 3.2T | 3.9T | 2.7T | 2.6T – 3.9T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.6(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3 | 8.12 | -1.43 | 2.1 – 3.9 |
| 2029 | 1.98 | 10.84 | -5.7 | 0.41 – 3.55 |
| 2031 | 0.95 | 12 | -8.96 | -1.03 – 2.94 |
| 2036 | -1.61 | 12 | -10 | -4.56 – 1.34 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed18.6k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 20.5k | 22.9k | 18.4k | 19.8k – 21.1k |
| 2029 | 24.1k | 28.3k | 20.5k | 22.3k – 25.9k |
| 2031 | 27.8k | 33.2k | 23.1k | 24.6k – 30.9k |
| 2036 | 36.9k | 44.5k | 30.2k | 29.2k – 44.5k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed25.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 24.73 | 32.79 | 15.42 | 23.09 – 26.36 |
| 2029 | 23.18 | 37.15 | 7.06 | 19.92 – 26.44 |
| 2031 | 21.64 | 39.67 | 0.82 | 17.13 – 26.14 |
| 2036 | 17.77 | 43.28 | 0 | 11 – 24.54 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed25.08(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 24.6 | 34.39 | 14.8 | 22.7 – 26.49 |
| 2028 | 23.62 | 40.59 | 6.64 | 19.89 – 27.35 |
| 2030 | 22.64 | 44.55 | 0.73 | 17.47 – 27.8 |
| 2035 | 20.19 | 51.18 | 0 | 12.22 – 28.16 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed34.88(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 28.11 | 50 | -5 | 15.38 – 40.84 |
| 2029 | 19.32 | 50 | -5 | -2.88 – 41.51 |
| 2031 | 10.52 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 38.82 |
| 2036 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 34.63 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed30.59(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 30.69 | 35.05 | 26.92 | 29.58 – 31.8 |
| 2028 | 31 | 38.54 | 24.46 | 28.43 – 33.56 |
| 2030 | 31.31 | 41.04 | 22.87 | 27.41 – 35.2 |
| 2035 | 32.08 | 45.84 | 20.14 | 24.98 – 39.17 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed85.9m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 86.1m | 90.2m | 82.4m | 83.5m – 88.8m |
| 2029 | 86.6m | 90.6m | 82.8m | 80.1m – 93m |
| 2031 | 87m | 91.1m | 83.1m | 77.1m – 96.8m |
| 2036 | 88m | 92.1m | 84.1m | 69.7m – 106.2m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.96(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.06 | 9.86 | -3.79 | 1.05 – 3.07 |
| 2028 | 2.15 | 15 | -7.98 | 0.36 – 3.95 |
| 2030 | 2.25 | 15 | -10 | -0.11 – 4.61 |
| 2035 | 2.49 | 15 | -10 | -1 – 5.97 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed71.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 70.7bn | 103.2bn | 38.1bn | 64.6bn – 76.8bn |
| 2028 | 68.2bn | 124.6bn | 11.8bn | 56.3bn – 80.1bn |
| 2030 | 65.8bn | 138.6bn | 0 | 49.4bn – 82.2bn |
| 2035 | 59.6bn | 162.6bn | 0 | 34.3bn – 84.9bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.73(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 4.72 | 5.79 | 3.65 | 4.48 – 4.96 |
| 2027 | 4.71 | 6.56 | 2.85 | 4.2 – 5.22 |
| 2029 | 4.7 | 7.1 | 2.3 | 3.96 – 5.44 |
| 2034 | 4.69 | 8.09 | 1.3 | 3.42 – 5.96 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed185.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 198.2bn | 221.2bn | 175.2bn | 191.5bn – 204.9bn |
| 2028 | 230.5bn | 270.3bn | 190.7bn | 213.3bn – 247.6bn |
| 2030 | 262.8bn | 314.1bn | 211.4bn | 232.9bn – 292.6bn |
| 2035 | 343.5bn | 416.1bn | 270.8bn | 272.2bn – 414.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.52(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 7.59 | 8.55 | 6.63 | 7.32 – 7.86 |
| 2029 | 6.18 | 7.84 | 4.51 | 5.63 – 6.73 |
| 2031 | 4.76 | 6.91 | 2.61 | 4.05 – 5.47 |
| 2036 | 1.22 | 4.26 | 0 | 0.56 – 1.88 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-05 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/TUR · API docs
