Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Tuvalu: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 28/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 8 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 1.44 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.44, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.46) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2011-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-5% skill vs naive; realized ±1.0645 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Tuvalu: forward projections across 7 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 29.86 | 30 | -30 | 14.12 – 30 |
| 2028 | 29.79 | 30 | -30 | 1.93 – 30 |
| 2030 | 29.72 | 30 | -30 | -6.78 – 30 |
| 2035 | 29.54 | 30 | -30 | -23.45 – 30 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed57.3m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 58.4m | 70.1m | 48.4m | 56.1m – 60.8m |
| 2028 | 61m | 81.1m | 43.6m | 55.7m – 66.3m |
| 2030 | 63.6m | 89.6m | 41.1m | 55.4m – 71.8m |
| 2035 | 70m | 106.8m | 38.2m | 54.4m – 85.6m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.64(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.44 | 12 | -10 | -1.46 – 4.33 |
| 2028 | 1.32 | 12 | -10 | -3.72 – 6.35 |
| 2030 | 1.2 | 12 | -10 | -5.31 – 7.71 |
| 2035 | 0.91 | 12 | -10 | -8.33 – 10.14 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.2k | 7.4k | 5.2k | 6k – 6.5k |
| 2028 | 6.7k | 8.7k | 5k | 6.1k – 7.2k |
| 2030 | 7.1k | 9.7k | 4.9k | 6.3k – 8k |
| 2035 | 8.3k | 11.9k | 5.1k | 6.5k – 10k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.7 | 6.08 | 0 | 2.14 – 3.26 |
| 2028 | 0.9 | 6.76 | 0 | 0 – 1.85 |
| 2030 | 0 | 7.56 | 0 | 0 – 1.24 |
| 2035 | 0 | 10.7 | 0 | 0 – 1.81 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.5(2011)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.94 | 12.79 | -5 | 0.71 – 5.17 |
| 2028 | 4.06 | 21.13 | -5 | 0.08 – 8.04 |
| 2030 | 5.18 | 27.22 | -5 | -0.12 – 10.48 |
| 2035 | 7.98 | 39.15 | -5 | -0.21 – 16.16 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.5k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.5k | 10k | 9.1k | 9.2k – 9.8k |
| 2028 | 9.4k | 9.8k | 9k | 8.7k – 10.1k |
| 2030 | 9.2k | 9.6k | 8.8k | 8.2k – 10.2k |
| 2035 | 8.8k | 9.2k | 8.4k | 7k – 10.6k |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/TUV · API docs
