Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Tuvalu: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 29/100); the economy is in expansion; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 8 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 2.63 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.42, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: supportive (projected sentiment +0.42) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2011-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-5% skill vs naive; realized ±8.9174 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Tuvalu: forward projections across 7 macro indicators, horizons 2027, 2029, 2031, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.09 | 30 | -30 | -10.13 – 12.31 |
| 2029 | 5.26 | 30 | -30 | -14.39 – 24.91 |
| 2031 | 9.43 | 30 | -30 | -16.37 – 30 |
| 2036 | 19.87 | 30 | -30 | -18.73 – 30 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed57.3m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 67.5m | 79.8m | 57m | 65m – 70.1m |
| 2029 | 73.7m | 94.8m | 55.4m | 67.6m – 79.7m |
| 2031 | 79.8m | 107.1m | 56.1m | 70.2m – 89.4m |
| 2036 | 95.1m | 133.7m | 61.7m | 75.3m – 114.9m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.64(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.63 | 12 | -10 | -0.26 – 5.52 |
| 2029 | 3.16 | 12 | -10 | -1.92 – 8.25 |
| 2031 | 3.7 | 12 | -10 | -2.96 – 10.36 |
| 2036 | 5.04 | 12 | -10 | -4.77 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 6.9k | 8k | 5.9k | 6.6k – 7.1k |
| 2029 | 7.5k | 9.5k | 5.8k | 6.9k – 8.1k |
| 2031 | 8.2k | 10.7k | 6k | 7.2k – 9.1k |
| 2036 | 9.9k | 13.4k | 6.8k | 7.8k – 11.9k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.1 | 5.39 | 0 | 1.57 – 2.64 |
| 2029 | 0 | 5.69 | 0 | 0 – 0.92 |
| 2031 | 0 | 7.35 | 0 | 0 – 1.21 |
| 2036 | 0 | 10.39 | 0 | 0 – 1.76 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.5(2011)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.66 | 12.29 | -5 | 1.68 – 5.63 |
| 2029 | 5.2 | 20.16 | -5 | 1.63 – 8.76 |
| 2031 | 6.74 | 26.05 | -5 | 1.92 – 11.56 |
| 2036 | 10.59 | 37.9 | -5 | 2.84 – 18.34 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.5k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 10.1k | 10.6k | 9.7k | 9.8k – 10.4k |
| 2029 | 10.7k | 11.4k | 10k | 9.9k – 11.5k |
| 2031 | 11.2k | 12.1k | 10.4k | 10k – 12.5k |
| 2036 | 12.6k | 13.9k | 11.4k | 10k – 15.2k |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/TUV · API docs
