Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Taiwan: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 17/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 8 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 5.31 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.66, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: supportive (projected sentiment +0.72) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-4% skill vs naive; realized ±5.6601 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Taiwan: forward projections across 8 macro indicators, horizons 2027, 2029, 2031, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed18.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 18.87 | 22.31 | 15.44 | 17.87 – 19.88 |
| 2029 | 20.42 | 26.37 | 14.47 | 18.22 – 22.61 |
| 2031 | 21.96 | 29.64 | 14.28 | 18.64 – 25.29 |
| 2036 | 25.83 | 30 | 14.96 | 19.48 – 30 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed976.7bn(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1T | 1.1T | 947bn | 998.1bn – 1.1T |
| 2029 | 1.2T | 1.3T | 1T | 1.1T – 1.2T |
| 2031 | 1.3T | 1.5T | 1.1T | 1.1T – 1.4T |
| 2036 | 1.6T | 1.9T | 1.4T | 1.3T – 1.9T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.31 | 12 | -0.97 | 4.02 – 6.61 |
| 2029 | 5.57 | 12 | -5.31 | 3.21 – 7.93 |
| 2031 | 5.83 | 12 | -8.22 | 2.66 – 9 |
| 2036 | 6.47 | 12 | -10 | 1.62 – 11.33 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed42.1k(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 44.4k | 48.7k | 40.7k | 43k – 45.8k |
| 2029 | 50.1k | 57.5k | 43.7k | 46.4k – 53.8k |
| 2031 | 55.8k | 65.4k | 47.5k | 49.5k – 62.1k |
| 2036 | 70k | 83.6k | 58.3k | 55.5k – 84.6k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed27.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 26.51 | 30.9 | 21.44 | 25.41 – 27.61 |
| 2029 | 24.32 | 31.93 | 15.54 | 21.98 – 26.66 |
| 2031 | 22.13 | 31.96 | 10.79 | 18.85 – 25.41 |
| 2036 | 16.66 | 30.56 | 0.63 | 11.86 – 21.46 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.47 | 2.51 | 0.37 | 1.22 – 1.73 |
| 2029 | 1.19 | 2.99 | -0.73 | 0.74 – 1.65 |
| 2031 | 0.91 | 3.23 | -1.57 | 0.32 – 1.51 |
| 2036 | 0.21 | 3.49 | -3.29 | -0.67 – 1.1 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed23.2m(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 23.2m | 24.3m | 22.2m | 22.5m – 23.9m |
| 2029 | 23.1m | 24.2m | 22.1m | 21.4m – 24.8m |
| 2031 | 23m | 24.1m | 22m | 20.4m – 25.6m |
| 2036 | 22.7m | 23.8m | 21.7m | 18m – 27.4m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.29 | 3.51 | 3.06 | 3.18 – 3.39 |
| 2029 | 3.06 | 3.45 | 2.66 | 2.83 – 3.28 |
| 2031 | 2.83 | 3.34 | 2.32 | 2.51 – 3.15 |
| 2036 | 2.26 | 2.98 | 1.53 | 1.79 – 2.73 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/TWN · API docs
