Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Tanzania: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 26/100); the economy is in expansion; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 6.28 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.48, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.50) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2018-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2018-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2018-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-12% skill vs naive; realized ±0.276 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Tanzania: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2019, 2021, 2023, 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-2.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -2.61 | 1.69 | -6.91 | -3.53 – -1.69 |
| 2028 | -2.63 | 4.82 | -10.07 | -4.27 – -0.98 |
| 2030 | -2.64 | 6.97 | -12.25 | -4.81 – -0.47 |
| 2035 | -2.68 | 10.91 | -16.27 | -5.89 – 0.52 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed18.98(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 19.71 | 23.05 | 16.81 | 18.91 – 20.5 |
| 2028 | 21.15 | 26.94 | 16.13 | 19.31 – 22.99 |
| 2030 | 22.59 | 30.07 | 16.11 | 19.71 – 25.47 |
| 2035 | 26.19 | 36.77 | 17.03 | 20.49 – 31.9 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed90.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 93.4bn | 99.7bn | 88bn | 90.5bn – 96.3bn |
| 2028 | 102.1bn | 112.9bn | 92.8bn | 94.6bn – 109.7bn |
| 2030 | 110.8bn | 124.7bn | 98.8bn | 98.2bn – 123.4bn |
| 2035 | 132.6bn | 152.3bn | 115.5bn | 105.1bn – 160.1bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.85(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.28 | 7.92 | 4.85 | 5.9 – 6.65 |
| 2028 | 7.27 | 10.12 | 4.8 | 6.45 – 8.09 |
| 2030 | 8.26 | 11.95 | 5.07 | 6.99 – 9.54 |
| 2035 | 10.75 | 12 | 6.24 | 8.16 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.3k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.3k | 1.4k | 1.3k | 1.3k – 1.4k |
| 2028 | 1.4k | 1.6k | 1.3k | 1.3k – 1.5k |
| 2030 | 1.5k | 1.7k | 1.3k | 1.3k – 1.6k |
| 2035 | 1.6k | 1.9k | 1.4k | 1.3k – 2k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed48.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 51.04 | 53.46 | 48.24 | 49.45 – 52.62 |
| 2028 | 53.51 | 57.7 | 48.67 | 49.55 – 57.47 |
| 2030 | 55.98 | 61.39 | 49.74 | 49.62 – 62.33 |
| 2035 | 62.16 | 69.81 | 53.33 | 49.26 – 75.05 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed19.99(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20.71 | 24.61 | 16.82 | 19.79 – 21.64 |
| 2028 | 22.17 | 28.91 | 15.42 | 20.07 – 24.26 |
| 2030 | 23.62 | 32.33 | 14.91 | 20.4 – 26.84 |
| 2035 | 27.25 | 39.57 | 14.93 | 21.01 – 33.5 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.33(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.51 | 4.63 | 2.31 | 3.21 – 3.81 |
| 2028 | 3.89 | 5.83 | 1.81 | 3.27 – 4.51 |
| 2030 | 4.27 | 6.77 | 1.58 | 3.37 – 5.16 |
| 2035 | 5.21 | 8.75 | 1.42 | 3.59 – 6.83 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed42.22(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 42.11 | 45.85 | 38.87 | 40.81 – 43.42 |
| 2028 | 41.98 | 48.45 | 36.37 | 38.88 – 45.09 |
| 2030 | 41.85 | 50.21 | 34.61 | 37.1 – 46.61 |
| 2035 | 41.53 | 53.35 | 31.29 | 32.92 – 50.15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed70.5m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 70m | 73.3m | 67m | 67.9m – 72.2m |
| 2028 | 72.2m | 75.6m | 69.1m | 66.9m – 77.6m |
| 2030 | 74.4m | 77.9m | 71.1m | 66m – 82.9m |
| 2035 | 79.9m | 83.6m | 76.4m | 63.3m – 96.4m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.58(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.94 | 5.62 | 0.93 | 2.56 – 3.32 |
| 2028 | 3.82 | 8.46 | 0.35 | 3.06 – 4.59 |
| 2030 | 4.71 | 10.69 | 0.22 | 3.58 – 5.83 |
| 2035 | 6.92 | 15 | 0.57 | 4.75 – 9.09 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5bn(2018)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 5.4bn | 6.8bn | 4bn | 5.1bn – 5.7bn |
| 2021 | 6.1bn | 8.5bn | 3.6bn | 5.4bn – 6.7bn |
| 2023 | 6.8bn | 9.9bn | 3.6bn | 5.7bn – 7.8bn |
| 2028 | 8.5bn | 12.9bn | 4.1bn | 6.5bn – 10.5bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.39(2018)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 5.17 | 7 | 3.33 | 4.8 – 5.53 |
| 2021 | 4.9 | 8.08 | 1.72 | 4.18 – 5.62 |
| 2023 | 4.77 | 8.87 | 0.67 | 3.76 – 5.78 |
| 2028 | 4.66 | 10.46 | 0 | 3.03 – 6.3 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5bn(2018)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 5.4bn | 6.8bn | 4bn | 5.1bn – 5.7bn |
| 2021 | 6.1bn | 8.5bn | 3.6bn | 5.4bn – 6.7bn |
| 2023 | 6.8bn | 9.9bn | 3.6bn | 5.7bn – 7.8bn |
| 2028 | 8.5bn | 12.9bn | 4.1bn | 6.5bn – 10.5bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.57(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.51 | 1.78 | 1.25 | 1.45 – 1.58 |
| 2028 | 1.4 | 1.85 | 0.94 | 1.26 – 1.53 |
| 2030 | 1.28 | 1.86 | 0.69 | 1.09 – 1.47 |
| 2035 | 0.98 | 1.81 | 0.15 | 0.7 – 1.27 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/TZA · API docs
